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Qantas Airways (QABSY)
OTHER OTC:QABSY
US Market
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Qantas Airways (QABSY) AI Stock Analysis

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QABSY

Qantas Airways

(OTC:QABSY)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(11.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved operating performance and strong operating cash flow, but held back by balance-sheet fragility (historically thin/negative equity) and a recent dip into negative free cash flow. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and strong dividend yield), while technical indicators and earnings-call items point to near-term pressure despite constructive revenue guidance and medium-term fleet-renewal upside.
Positive Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Sustained revenue growth and the return to profitability indicate a broad operating recovery. Continued expansion across Qantas, Jetstar, international travel and related activities provides a stronger earnings base, although airline cyclicality remains.
Negative Factors
Historically fragile balance sheet
Qantas has reduced debt, but its history of thin or negative equity leaves less protection against a downturn, fuel shock or operational disruption. High leverage relative to the equity base can constrain flexibility while the group funds fleet renewal.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Sustained revenue growth and the return to profitability indicate a broad operating recovery. Continued expansion across Qantas, Jetstar, international travel and related activities provides a stronger earnings base, although airline cyclicality remains.
Read all positive factors

Qantas Airways (QABSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Qantas Airways Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Qantas Airways Limited provides aviation services, facilitating air travel both within Australia and across international routes. The company structures its operations across several key divisions: Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, the Jetsta...
How the Company Makes Money
Qantas makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across passenger travel, cargo, and loyalty activities. Passenger revenue is generated from fares on domestic and international flights operated under the Qantas and J...

Qantas Airways Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive picture: the group delivered strong cash flow, maintained a sustainable base dividend, progressed a material fleet renewal that is expected to unlock meaningful medium‑term earnings upside (including a Project Sunrise $400m uplift and A380 retirement benefits), and achieved record customer and loyalty metrics. These positives were tempered by near‑term headwinds — a $420m Middle East fuel impact, higher fuel and industry costs, EPS and underlying PBT declines versus the prior year, paused buyback and one‑off charges — and expected entry‑into‑service costs as new aircraft come online. On balance, management emphasized resilience, disciplined capital allocation and confidence in medium‑term margin improvement driven by fleet renewal and transformation savings.
Positive Updates
Strong Underlying Profit Despite Geopolitical Shock
Underlying profit before tax (PBT) of $2.064 billion for FY'26, delivered despite a $420 million net earnings impact from the Middle East conflict; demonstrates resilience of the integrated portfolio.
Negative Updates
Earnings and EPS Declines
Underlying earnings per share (EPS) decreased to $0.96, down 13% year on year; underlying PBT down $330 million versus FY'25 (partly reflecting the $420 million Middle East impact).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Underlying Profit Despite Geopolitical Shock
Underlying profit before tax (PBT) of $2.064 billion for FY'26, delivered despite a $420 million net earnings impact from the Middle East conflict; demonstrates resilience of the integrated portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to move to TRASK (total revenue/ASK) and expects group TRASK to rise 8–10% for both Group Domestic and Group International in H1 FY27; forecast H1 fuel expense is ~A$3.6bn assuming market jet fuel A$197/bl with ~85% Brent hedging for H1 and continued participation if prices fall. FY27 capital expenditure is guided to A$4.3–4.6bn (FY26 capex A$4.0bn), with up to 31 aircraft deliveries over the next 12 months; FY26 net debt closed at A$6.2bn (within the A$5.5–6.9bn target range) and group liquidity is over A$13bn. Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT is expected to grow 5–7% in FY27 and remains on track to A$800m–A$1bn by FY30; Qantas International targets a 10% EBIT margin by FY31 with Project Sunrise driving ~A$400m of uplift by FY31 (entry‑into‑service costs ~A$150m in FY28–29). For context, FY26 underlying PBT was A$2.064bn, underlying EPS A$0.96, operating cash flow A$3.9bn, total FY26 base dividends A$600m (final A$300m) and the previously announced A$150m on‑market buyback has been paused.

Qantas Airways Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Recovery is clear with meaningful revenue growth and solid profitability since 2023, plus strong operating cash flow. Offsetting this, the balance sheet remains a key risk (thin/volatile equity history and leverage), and free cash flow turned slightly negative in the latest period despite healthy operating cash generation.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
BreakdownJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue24.64B23.41B21.62B19.82B9.11B
Gross Profit4.71B12.76B11.46B7.00B1.91B
EBITDA1.85B4.54B3.90B4.52B-70.00M
Net Income1.26B1.60B1.25B1.75B-860.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets27.04B23.36B20.56B20.35B19.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.27B2.36B1.98B3.25B3.98B
Total Debt10.35B7.96B6.59B6.73B7.23B
Total Liabilities25.53B22.57B20.27B20.34B19.84B
Stockholders Equity1.50B778.00M289.00M5.00M-197.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-196.61M448.00M680.00M2.49B1.75B
Operating Cash Flow3.69B4.25B3.44B5.05B2.65B
Investing Cash Flow-3.76B-3.81B-2.89B-2.59B-240.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.13B42.00M-2.01B-2.63B-1.31B

Qantas Airways Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price33.10
Price Trends
50DMA
35.44
Negative
100DMA
33.87
Negative
200DMA
33.28
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.54
Positive
RSI
44.69
Neutral
STOCH
30.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QABSY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.28, below the 50-day MA of 35.44, and below the 200-day MA of 33.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for QABSY.

Qantas Airways Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$52.72B13.1919.33%0.97%10.28%-12.67%
77
Outperform
$36.15B10.3922.50%8.48%6.74%
75
Outperform
$15.11B9.7298.01%2.92%20.16%39.18%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
63
Neutral
$10.11B11.0590.68%4.66%12.70%-16.43%
54
Neutral
$19.38B23.8711.27%1.82%9.46%137.74%
46
Neutral
$8.69B-26.808.29%1.41%7.53%-157.37%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
QABSY
Qantas Airways
33.82
-3.47
-9.30%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
80.17
19.08
31.23%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
39.62
8.47
27.17%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
111.38
3.61
3.35%
AAL
American Airlines
13.13
0.18
1.39%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
52.47
4.01
8.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2026