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Qantas Airways
(OTC:QABSY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(11.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improved operating performance and strong operating cash flow, but held back by balance-sheet fragility (historically thin/negative equity) and a recent dip into negative free cash flow. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and strong dividend yield), while technical indicators and earnings-call items point to near-term pressure despite constructive revenue guidance and medium-term fleet-renewal upside.
Positive Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Sustained revenue growth and the return to profitability indicate a broad operating recovery. Continued expansion across Qantas, Jetstar, international travel and related activities provides a stronger earnings base, although airline cyclicality remains.
Negative Factors
Historically fragile balance sheet
Qantas has reduced debt, but its history of thin or negative equity leaves less protection against a downturn, fuel shock or operational disruption. High leverage relative to the equity base can constrain flexibility while the group funds fleet renewal.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and profit recovery
Sustained revenue growth and the return to profitability indicate a broad operating recovery. Continued expansion across Qantas, Jetstar, international travel and related activities provides a stronger earnings base, although airline cyclicality remains.
Read all positive factors
Qantas Airways (QABSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.11B
Dividend Yield4.66%
Average Volume (3M)5.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth12.70%
EPS Growth-16.43%
CountryUS
Employees32,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.25
Shares Outstanding298,887,240
10 Day Avg. Volume8,882
30 Day Avg. Volume5,801
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)10.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-81.75
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.52B
Qantas Airways Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Qantas Airways Limited provides aviation services, facilitating air travel both within Australia and across international routes. The company structures its operations across several key divisions: Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, the Jetsta...
How the Company Makes Money
Qantas makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across passenger travel, cargo, and loyalty activities. Passenger revenue is generated from fares on domestic and international flights operated under the Qantas and J...
Qantas Airways Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive picture: the group delivered strong cash flow, maintained a sustainable base dividend, progressed a material fleet renewal that is expected to unlock meaningful medium‑term earnings upside (including a Project Sunrise $400m uplift and A380 retirement benefits), and achieved record customer and loyalty metrics. These positives were tempered by near‑term headwinds — a $420m Middle East fuel impact, higher fuel and industry costs, EPS and underlying PBT declines versus the prior year, paused buyback and one‑off charges — and expected entry‑into‑service costs as new aircraft come online. On balance, management emphasized resilience, disciplined capital allocation and confidence in medium‑term margin improvement driven by fleet renewal and transformation savings.Positive Updates
Strong Underlying Profit Despite Geopolitical Shock
Underlying profit before tax (PBT) of $2.064 billion for FY'26, delivered despite a $420 million net earnings impact from the Middle East conflict; demonstrates resilience of the integrated portfolio.
Negative Updates
Earnings and EPS Declines
Underlying earnings per share (EPS) decreased to $0.96, down 13% year on year; underlying PBT down $330 million versus FY'25 (partly reflecting the $420 million Middle East impact).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Underlying Profit Despite Geopolitical Shock
Underlying profit before tax (PBT) of $2.064 billion for FY'26, delivered despite a $420 million net earnings impact from the Middle East conflict; demonstrates resilience of the integrated portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to move to TRASK (total revenue/ASK) and expects group TRASK to rise 8–10% for both Group Domestic and Group International in H1 FY27; forecast H1 fuel expense is ~A$3.6bn assuming market jet fuel A$197/bl with ~85% Brent hedging for H1 and continued participation if prices fall. FY27 capital expenditure is guided to A$4.3–4.6bn (FY26 capex A$4.0bn), with up to 31 aircraft deliveries over the next 12 months; FY26 net debt closed at A$6.2bn (within the A$5.5–6.9bn target range) and group liquidity is over A$13bn. Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT is expected to grow 5–7% in FY27 and remains on track to A$800m–A$1bn by FY30; Qantas International targets a 10% EBIT margin by FY31 with Project Sunrise driving ~A$400m of uplift by FY31 (entry‑into‑service costs ~A$150m in FY28–29). For context, FY26 underlying PBT was A$2.064bn, underlying EPS A$0.96, operating cash flow A$3.9bn, total FY26 base dividends A$600m (final A$300m) and the previously announced A$150m on‑market buyback has been paused.Qantas Airways Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 24.64B | 23.41B | 21.62B | 19.82B | 9.11B |
| Gross Profit | 4.71B | 12.76B | 11.46B | 7.00B | 1.91B |
| EBITDA | 1.85B | 4.54B | 3.90B | 4.52B | -70.00M |
| Net Income | 1.26B | 1.60B | 1.25B | 1.75B | -860.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 27.04B | 23.36B | 20.56B | 20.35B | 19.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.27B | 2.36B | 1.98B | 3.25B | 3.98B |
| Total Debt | 10.35B | 7.96B | 6.59B | 6.73B | 7.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.53B | 22.57B | 20.27B | 20.34B | 19.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 778.00M | 289.00M | 5.00M | -197.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -196.61M | 448.00M | 680.00M | 2.49B | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.69B | 4.25B | 3.44B | 5.05B | 2.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.76B | -3.81B | -2.89B | -2.59B | -240.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.13B | 42.00M | -2.01B | -2.63B | -1.31B |
Qantas Airways Technical Analysis
Neutral
33.10
Price Trends
35.44
Negative
33.87
Negative
33.28
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.54
Positive
44.69
Neutral
30.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QABSY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.28, below the 50-day MA of 35.44, and below the 200-day MA of 33.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for QABSY.
Qantas Airways Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $52.72B | 13.19 | 19.33% | 0.97% | 10.28% | -12.67% | |
77 Outperform | $36.15B | 10.39 | 22.50% | ― | 8.48% | 6.74% | |
75 Outperform | $15.11B | 9.72 | 98.01% | 2.92% | 20.16% | 39.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $10.11B | 11.05 | 90.68% | 4.66% | 12.70% | -16.43% | |
54 Neutral | $19.38B | 23.87 | 11.27% | 1.82% | 9.46% | 137.74% | |
46 Neutral | $8.69B | -26.80 | 8.29% | 1.41% | 7.53% | -157.37% |
* Industrials Sector Average
QABSY
Qantas Airways
33.82
-3.47
-9.30%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
80.17
19.08
31.23%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
39.62
8.47
27.17%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
111.38
3.61
3.35%
AAL
American Airlines
13.13
0.18
1.39%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
52.47
4.01
8.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.