Mesoblast (MESO)
NASDAQ:MESO
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Mesoblast
(NASDAQ:MESO)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-14.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and cash outflows) and soft technical momentum. These are partially offset by a positive earnings-call outlook, including raised commercial evidence for Ryoncil (strong H1 revenue contribution, 93% gross margin) and clear revenue guidance, while valuation signals are limited due to an unusable P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Commercial launch & revenue traction
A $49M H1 contribution from a launched product demonstrates that Mesoblast has moved beyond clinical-stage proof into real-world commercialization. Durable payer coverage and quarter-on-quarter growth indicate an operational commercial model that can scale and underpins longer-term revenue generation if uptake continues.
Negative Factors
Revenue concentration risk
Almost all revenue derives from a single newly launched product, exposing the company to execution, reimbursement, competitive and safety risks. Until the pipeline commercializes, any disruption to Ryoncil uptake or pricing would materially weaken cash flow and slow progress toward diversified, sustainable revenues.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial launch & revenue traction
A $49M H1 contribution from a launched product demonstrates that Mesoblast has moved beyond clinical-stage proof into real-world commercialization. Durable payer coverage and quarter-on-quarter growth indicate an operational commercial model that can scale and underpins longer-term revenue generation if uptake continues.
Read all positive factors
Mesoblast (MESO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)161.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth1055.07%
EPS Growth20.57%
CountryUS
Employees73
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.84
Shares Outstanding129,156,280
10 Day Avg. Volume168,426
30 Day Avg. Volume161,902
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.44
Price to Book (P/B)2.20
Price to Sales (P/S)76.48
P/FCF Ratio-25.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue115.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-55.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-34.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside112.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$125.51M
Mesoblast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mesoblast Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes allogeneic cellular medicines in the United States, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The company offers products in the areas of cardiovascular, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mesoblast’s revenues have historically been primarily driven by collaboration-related income rather than product sales. Key revenue streams have included: (1) milestone payments earned under licensing and collaboration agreements when development,...
Mesoblast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed strong commercial momentum following the successful Ryoncil launch (USD 49M H1 revenue, 93% gross margin), meaningful market access achievements (coverage for >280M lives, J-code, centers onboarded), robust cash and financing flexibility (USD 130M cash and new USD 125M facility), and compelling randomized data for Revascor and progress on rexlemestrocel-L. Offsetting these positives are sharp increases in R&D and SG&A as the company scales commercialization and advances clinical programs, continued operating losses and notable dependency on a single launched product while other programs mature. Overall, the call emphasized execution progress, regulatory engagement, and a clear path for near-term milestones, with manageable financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
Successful Ryoncil Launch and Revenue Contribution
Ryoncil launched April 2025 and drove the period: net product revenues of USD 49.0M in H1 FY26, representing ~95.5% of total revenues (USD 51.3M). Management reports quarter-on-quarter revenue growth since launch.
Negative Updates
Marked Increase in R&D Spend
R&D expenses rose to USD 46.2M in H1 FY26 versus USD 5.1M reported in the prior year period. Management noted prior-year comparatives were skewed by a USD 23M inventory provision reversal; using the adjusted prior-year comparable (~USD 18.1M), R&D increased by ~155% year-over-year, driven by adult GVHD trials, back pain program, LVAD work, BLA preparation and manufacturing.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Ryoncil Launch and Revenue Contribution
Ryoncil launched April 2025 and drove the period: net product revenues of USD 49.0M in H1 FY26, representing ~95.5% of total revenues (USD 51.3M). Management reports quarter-on-quarter revenue growth since launch.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mesoblast guided full‑year FY2026 Ryoncil net revenues of $110–$120 million (H1 Ryoncil net revenue $49M; total H1 revenue $51.3M) and said operating cash‑flow usage should decline in H2 versus H1 (H1 operating cash use ≈ $30.3M), supported by $130M cash on hand at Dec‑31 and a $125M credit facility (first $75M drawn; $50M tranche available through June 2026) with the subordinated royalty facility to be fully repaid by mid‑2026. H1 results included a 93% gross margin (gross profit excluding amortization ≈ $44.2M), R&D $46.2M, SG&A $28.5M, direct selling costs $7.7M and a net loss of $40.2M (prior year $48M). Commercial traction metrics cited 49 onboarded treatment centers (30 with formulary listings), 64 centers covering 94% of the pediatric BMT population, 13 hospitals on Optum Frontier, payer coverage for >280M lives (Medicaid in all states) and J‑code J3402 effective Oct 1. Clinical and regulatory timelines: chronic low back pain Phase III (300 pts) enrollment expected to finish Mar/Apr 2026 with data and potential BLA in 2027, and a Revascor BLA for LVAD patients is targeted next quarter.Mesoblast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.20M | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M | 7.46M |
| Gross Profit | 12.07M | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M | -78.28M |
| EBITDA | -73.66M | -56.08M | -58.55M | -76.57M | -84.65M |
| Net Income | -102.14M | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M | -98.81M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 784.68M | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M | 744.72M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 161.16M | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M | 136.88M |
| Total Debt | 128.16M | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M | 105.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 187.24M | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M | 163.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 597.44M | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M | 581.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -50.68M | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M | -108.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -49.95M | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M | -106.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 120.00K | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K | -1.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 147.34M | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M | 114.47M |
Mesoblast Technical Analysis
Negative
16.46
Price Trends
15.07
Negative
15.76
Negative
16.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Positive
39.45
Neutral
28.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.74, above the 50-day MA of 15.07, and above the 200-day MA of 16.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MESO.
Mesoblast Risk Analysis
Mesoblast disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mesoblast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mesoblast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.86B | 12.79 | 17.19% | ― | 20.71% | -5.53% | |
61 Neutral | $1.44B | -76.29 | -4.83% | ― | 23.64% | -29.23% | |
59 Neutral | $2.70B | -52.90 | -24.26% | ― | 55.87% | 66.29% | |
54 Neutral | $1.66B | 25.42 | 4.89% | ― | -2.20% | 77.51% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $1.87B | -23.50 | -14.02% | ― | 1055.07% | 20.57% | |
45 Neutral | $5.30B | -5.90 | -83.29% | ― | ― | 0.01% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MESO
Mesoblast
13.95
2.10
17.72%
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics
15.75
-23.96
-60.34%
COGT
Cogent Biosciences
31.02
24.12
349.57%
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
16.90
6.45
61.72%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
32.20
-3.22
-9.09%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
28.29
-7.78
-21.57%
Mesoblast Corporate Events
Mesoblast Details April Equity Issuance Moves and Director Share Purchases
Apr 17, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Mesoblast lodged a series of equity-related announcements with the Australian Securities Exchange, including new issue notifications, applications for quotation of securities, changes in directors’ interests and notices of...
Mesoblast Grants New Director Options Following 2025 AGM Approvals
Mar 23, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Mesoblast filed a series of disclosures with the Australian Securities Exchange detailing changes in directors’ interests, primarily through the issuance of new options approved by shareholders at the company’s 2025 ...
Mesoblast Discloses Director Gregory George’s Share and ADS Purchases in Early March 2026
Mar 13, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Mesoblast Limited reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it had lodged a new issue announcement and a change of director’s interest notice with the Australian Securities Exchange. The filing detailed ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.