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Mesoblast
(NASDAQ:MESO)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-18.56% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and cash outflows) and soft technical momentum. These are partially offset by a positive earnings-call outlook, including raised commercial evidence for Ryoncil (strong H1 revenue contribution, 93% gross margin) and clear revenue guidance, while valuation signals are limited due to an unusable P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High gross margin & commercial cash generation
Ryoncil's 93% gross margin on $49M H1 sales indicates the product is highly cash generative per unit. Durable margin economics support reinvestment in trials and commercialization, reduce near-term dilution needs and improve the company's ability to fund scaling and manufacturing without relying solely on equity financing.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and operating cash burn
Despite product revenue, Mesoblast reported a $40.2M H1 net loss and used about $30.3M of operating cash. Continued negative operating cash flow requires ongoing financing or rapid scaling of high-margin sales to reach break-even, exposing the company to execution and funding risk until multiple revenue streams mature.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margin & commercial cash generation
Ryoncil's 93% gross margin on $49M H1 sales indicates the product is highly cash generative per unit. Durable margin economics support reinvestment in trials and commercialization, reduce near-term dilution needs and improve the company's ability to fund scaling and manufacturing without relying solely on equity financing.
Read all positive factors
Mesoblast (MESO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)252.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.42
Revenue Growth1055.07%
EPS Growth20.57%
CountryUS
Employees81
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.72
Shares Outstanding129,874,820
10 Day Avg. Volume346,225
30 Day Avg. Volume252,966
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.20
Price to Sales (P/S)76.48
P/FCF Ratio-25.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.00Price Target Upside126.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$200.02M
Mesoblast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mesoblast Limited is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the development and commercialization of allogeneic cell-based therapies. Its global presence extends across the United States, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. T...
How the Company Makes Money
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Mesoblast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was predominantly positive: Mesoblast reported a successful first full commercial year for RYONCIL with $115M revenue, very high reported gross profit, strong real‑world efficacy signals, important pipeline milestones (IND cleared for Duchenne, completion of 350‑patient low back pain pivotal treatment, ongoing adult GvHD randomized trial), and materially reduced cash burn and net loss (44% reduction). Offsetting items include continued net losses ($57.5M), ongoing cash usage ($43.8M), dependence on a single commercial product today, financing costs (125M credit line at 8%), and multi‑year timelines and enrollment/regulatory risks for several label expansions. Overall, the positive commercial launch, improved financial trajectory, and advanced pipeline milestones outweigh the remaining financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
First Full Year Commercial Launch Success for RYONCIL
Net revenue of $115.0M in fiscal 2026 (first full year post-launch) with Q4 net revenue of $36.0M; gross profit on total sales (excluding amortization) of $110.0M (~95.7% gross margin on reported sales).
Negative Updates
Company Still Loss-Making
Despite a 44% improvement, net loss after taxes remained $57.5M for fiscal 2026 — the company has not yet reached sustained profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Full Year Commercial Launch Success for RYONCIL
Net revenue of $115.0M in fiscal 2026 (first full year post-launch) with Q4 net revenue of $36.0M; gross profit on total sales (excluding amortization) of $110.0M (~95.7% gross margin on reported sales).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mesoblast guided to double‑digit revenue growth for RYONCIL over the next 12 months and laid out timelines and metrics for its pipeline: FY2026 net revenue was $115M (Q4 $36M) with gross profit of $110M and a net loss after tax reduced 44% to $57.5M; cash at June 30, 2026 was $103M after net cash usage of $43.8M for the year (H2 cash burn $13.4M vs $50M a year earlier), and a $125M credit facility (8% interest, no principal amortization for five years) supports operations. Commercial metrics include >50 centers onboarded, >98% U.S. lives covered by payors, a J‑code effective Oct 2025, and pediatric survival of ~84% with RYONCIL (adult compassionate use day‑100 survival ~76% vs ~20–30% with other third‑line agents); market sizing cited: GvHD TAM >$1B, >2,000 adults/year with a ~50% share having Grade III/IV disease (≈600+ adults refractory to ruxolitinib), rexlemestrocel cardiac+back TAM >$20B, and chronic low back pain addressable market ~35M patients (≈60% degenerative, ~7M meeting target criteria, ≥$10B). Clinical milestones: adult GvHD randomized trial (180 patients, 1:1 ruxolitinib ± RYONCIL) is enrolling across >40 U.S. sites with an interim analysis at ~57% enrollment (~100 patients) expected Q4 2027 (trial powered ~85–90% with target day‑28 response uplift), the 350‑patient pivotal rexlemestrocel low‑back pain study has completed treatment with a readout in H2 CY2027 and potential BLA in CY2028, pediatric Duchenne IND cleared and Phase 3 planning underway; FY26 R&D/product development spend was $17.3M plus ~$21.2M on Phase 3 programs and ~ $18M incremental sales & marketing to support launch.Mesoblast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 65.38M | 17.20M | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M | 7.46M |
| Gross Profit | -34.88M | 12.07M | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M | -78.28M |
| EBITDA | -64.34M | -73.66M | -56.08M | -58.55M | -76.57M | -84.65M |
| Net Income | -94.37M | -102.14M | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M | -98.81M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 782.31M | 784.68M | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M | 744.72M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 129.57M | 161.16M | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M | 136.88M |
| Total Debt | 135.14M | 128.16M | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M | 105.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 207.62M | 187.24M | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M | 163.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 574.68M | 597.44M | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M | 581.40M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -58.69M | -50.68M | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M | -108.33M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -57.80M | -49.95M | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M | -106.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.11M | 120.00K | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K | -1.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 150.50M | 147.34M | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M | 114.47M |
Mesoblast Technical Analysis
Positive
17.19
Price Trends
15.57
Positive
15.26
Positive
16.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
55.17
Neutral
57.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.15, above the 50-day MA of 15.57, and above the 200-day MA of 16.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MESO.
Mesoblast Risk Analysis
Mesoblast disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mesoblast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mesoblast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.27B | 12.67 | 20.06% | ― | 24.25% | -0.83% | |
57 Neutral | $4.19B | -64.21 | -32.64% | ― | 50.13% | 50.40% | |
55 Neutral | $2.00B | -13.51 | -9.96% | ― | -20.44% | -349.84% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $6.39B | -15.90 | -72.57% | ― | ― | 4.92% | |
49 Neutral | $2.19B | -23.41 | -16.10% | ― | 1055.07% | 20.57% | |
48 Neutral | $1.93B | -205.88 | -2.35% | ― | 20.19% | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MESO
Mesoblast
16.84
0.72
4.47%
SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics
19.46
1.39
7.69%
COGT
Cogent Biosciences
36.72
24.35
196.85%
ADPT
Adaptive Biotechnologies
26.16
13.19
101.70%
HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings
39.66
1.61
4.23%
IMCR
Immunocore Holdings
37.12
4.47
13.69%
Mesoblast Corporate Events
Mesoblast Posts US$115m First-Year Ryoncil Sales and Advances Late-Stage Cell Therapy Pipeline
Jul 30, 2026
Mesoblast has reported strong initial commercial traction for its flagship cell therapy Ryoncil®, posting net revenue of US$36 million for the fourth quarter and US$115 million for the first full year following FDA approval, as disclosed in i...
Mesoblast CEO Boosts Stake as Company Files New Equity Announcements
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Mesoblast reported to U.S. regulators that it had lodged a series of new issue announcements with the Australian Securities Exchange, covering the issue and quotation of equity securities and changes in director interests. These ...
Mesoblast Showcases Profitable Ryoncil Launch and Expanding Cell Therapy Pipeline in June 2026 CEO Presentation
Jun 10, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Mesoblast lodged an ASX CEO Connect presentation highlighting that its first FDA-approved mesenchymal stem cell product Ryoncil has been successfully launched in the U.S., generating net revenue of more than US$100 million since l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.