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Adaptive Biotechnologies
(NASDAQ:ADPT)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(10.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses/negative free cash flow) and elevated balance-sheet leverage, despite improving operating trends. Offsetting factors include strong technical momentum and supportive corporate developments (MRD growth, raised guidance, and financing actions that improved near-term liquidity and flexibility). Valuation remains challenging due to negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
MRD growth and diagnostic adoption
Strong MRD growth and accelerating clonoSEQ utilization indicate increasing adoption of the company’s core oncology diagnostic offering. Higher testing volume can reinforce clinical relevance, expand recurring utilization, and support revenue durability as the business develops over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent unprofitability
Adaptive remains dependent on future operating improvement because revenue growth has not yet translated into sustainable net profitability. Continued losses can constrain internally funded investment, increase reliance on external capital, and leave earnings more vulnerable if growth or reimbursement trends weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
MRD growth and diagnostic adoption
Strong MRD growth and accelerating clonoSEQ utilization indicate increasing adoption of the company’s core oncology diagnostic offering. Higher testing volume can reinforce clinical relevance, expand recurring utilization, and support revenue durability as the business develops over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Adaptive Biotechnologies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and operational efficiency.
Reveals profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and operational efficiency.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth50.13%
EPS Growth50.40%
CountryUS
Employees624
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding159,595,840
10 Day Avg. Volume2,431,635
30 Day Avg. Volume2,237,300
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)11.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.90
P/FCF Ratio-50.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-219.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.07Price Target Upside14.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$293.49M
Adaptive Biotechnologies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, founded in 2009 and headquartered in Seattle, Washington (operating as Adaptive TCR Corporation until its name change in December 2011), is a commercial-stage entity focused on pioneering an immune medicine pl...
How the Company Makes Money
Adaptive Biotechnologies primarily makes money through (1) clinical diagnostics revenue and (2) immune medicine/research revenue, with additional contributions potentially coming from collaborations and other services where disclosed.
1) Clinical...
Adaptive Biotechnologies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrays a company with strong, broad-based MRD momentum: double-digit revenue growth, volume records, margin expansion, a raised MRD revenue guide, growing backlog, and improving MRD profitability. Challenges are concentrated in the immune medicine business (declining revenue and losses), company-level net loss and elevated operating expenses, milestone lumpiness, and reimbursement/regulatory uncertainty. Taken together the positives—notably durable clinical adoption, pricing gains, margin improvement, a large and growing backlog, and a solid cash position—outweigh the negatives, which are largely isolated or acknowledged with mitigations in progress.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Negative Updates
Immune Medicine Revenue and Profitability Pressure
Immune medicine revenue was $3.8M, down 26% YoY, and segment adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.4M, reflecting timing of samples/processing and continued investment needs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $70.9M, up 45% year over year, driven primarily by MRD which accounted for ~95% of revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year MRD revenue guidance to $260–$270 million (up from $255–$265M), which includes $9 million of MRD milestone revenue recognized in Q1 (and no additional milestones expected), with the midpoint implying ~25% YoY growth (or ~33% ex-milestones) and MRD seasonality of ~45% H1 / 55% H2; they now expect MRD volumes to grow at least 35% in 2026 (Q1 clonoSEQ volume ~32,600, +9% sequential) and continue to target a U.S. ASP of ~$1,400 per test (Q1 ASP $1,360, +11% YoY). Q1 sequencing gross margin was 70% (up 8 percentage points YoY) and management is targeting >70% (with a ~75% “north star”); backlog was ~$254M (+24% YoY), total revenue in Q1 was $70.9M (+45% YoY) with MRD representing ~95%, cash at quarter end was ~$222M, full-year total operating expense guidance is $350–$360M (≈75% allocated to MRD, ~20% to immune medicine), expected cash burn $15–$20M, and the company is reiterating its goal of positive adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for 2026.Adaptive Biotechnologies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 308.08M | 276.98M | 178.96M | 170.28M | 185.31M | 154.34M |
| Gross Profit | 232.40M | 205.62M | 106.88M | 94.72M | 127.40M | 105.04M |
| EBITDA | -15.96M | -29.85M | -128.76M | -189.27M | -175.21M | -193.34M |
| Net Income | -63.85M | -59.50M | -159.49M | -225.25M | -200.19M | -207.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 640.68M | 512.74M | 539.38M | 661.13M | 856.62M | 923.34M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 344.25M | 226.98M | 222.29M | 346.40M | 498.20M | 353.06M |
| Total Debt | 410.50M | 280.58M | 89.39M | 98.77M | 108.00M | 111.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 490.02M | 287.74M | 336.89M | 352.86M | 392.52M | 319.24M |
| Stockholders Equity | 142.91M | 218.79M | 202.71M | 308.40M | 464.17M | 603.99M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.03M | -48.95M | -98.88M | -167.02M | -200.29M | -254.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -21.01M | -45.99M | -95.21M | -156.32M | -183.94M | -192.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.30M | 37.95M | 77.79M | 129.65M | 2.90M | 181.21M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 173.03M | 30.40M | 241.00K | 2.25M | 132.26M | 27.15M |
Adaptive Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Positive
26.16
Price Trends
26.02
Positive
22.52
Positive
18.92
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Positive
47.45
Neutral
16.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADPT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.83, above the 50-day MA of 26.02, and above the 200-day MA of 18.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADPT.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Risk Analysis
Adaptive Biotechnologies disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adaptive Biotechnologies reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adaptive Biotechnologies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $4.07B | -23.23 | -17.49% | ― | 101.28% | 2.49% | |
57 Neutral | $8.39B | 79.86 | 18.77% | 2.06% | 85.37% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $4.23B | -65.02 | -32.64% | ― | 50.13% | 50.40% | |
56 Neutral | $2.34B | -4.19 | -50.41% | ― | -15.08% | 41.98% | |
55 Neutral | $875.42M | -2.59 | -60.21% | ― | -51.54% | 7.05% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ADPT
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ALMR
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10.18%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Adaptive Biotechnologies CSO Transitions to Strategic Consulting Role
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported strong second-quarter 2026 results driven by its MRD business, which accounted for 92% of revenue and grew 33% year on year to $66.2 million. Total revenue rose 22% to $71.6 million, while clonoSEQ® test volu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.