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Recursion Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:RXRX)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(26.40% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses, negative gross profit, and substantial free-cash-flow burn—despite a relatively low-leverage balance sheet. Offsetting this, technicals show an improving trend with positive MACD and price above key moving averages. The latest earnings call adds support via reduced cash operating expense guidance, a stated runway through early 2028, and meaningful partnership inflows alongside pipeline progress, while valuation remains hard to anchor due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
AI platform and discovery efficiency
Recursion’s proprietary multimodal data and integrated AI-plus-lab workflow are demonstrated at substantial scale, while reported design efficiency exceeds industry benchmarks. If repeatable, this can shorten discovery cycles, reduce research intensity, and support a differentiated platform for internal and partnered programs.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and cash burn
The company remains structurally dependent on financing and partnering because revenue is declining, gross profit is negative, and cash outflows are substantial. Continued losses reduce financial flexibility and require successful pipeline execution or recurring external capital to sustain research and clinical development.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI platform and discovery efficiency
Recursion’s proprietary multimodal data and integrated AI-plus-lab workflow are demonstrated at substantial scale, while reported design efficiency exceeds industry benchmarks. If repeatable, this can shorten discovery cycles, reduce research intensity, and support a differentiated platform for internal and partnered programs.
Read all positive factors
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This insight helps assess the company's diversification and dependency on specific segments.
Breaks down revenue by different business units or product lines, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This insight helps assess the company's diversification and dependency on specific segments.
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The Fly
The FlyRecursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)27.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.16
Revenue Growth-15.08%
EPS Growth41.98%
CountryUS
Employees600
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.04
Shares Outstanding535,342,160
10 Day Avg. Volume41,095,398
30 Day Avg. Volume27,013,329
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)1.62
Price to Sales (P/S)24.50
P/FCF Ratio-4.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue26.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-57.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.63Price Target Upside86.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.33M
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a biotechnology firm currently in its clinical development phase. The company's mission is to revolutionize drug discovery by decoding biological processes, utilizing an integrated approach that combines...
How the Company Makes Money
Recursion primarily makes money through (1) collaboration and partnership revenue with pharmaceutical partners and (2) its own drug discovery and development pipeline, with potential future revenues from product sales if its candidates are approve...
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strong set of operational and technical highlights: multiple advancing clinical programs with compelling early efficacy (REC-4881), a cleared IND for a precision-selective oncology candidate (REC-7735), large proprietary data assets (>50 PB, massive cellular atlases), meaningful partnership cash inflows (> $500M realized, > $260M from Roche-Genentech) and demonstrated efficiency gains in design speed and operating costs (guidance lowered to $375M, ~40% reduction vs 2024 pro forma). Key risks and lowlights are typical for a clinical-stage biotech: regulatory and clinical uncertainty in rare disease and CNS programs, timing of pivotal data (some milestones extend beyond the current cash runway), competitive pressure as AI tools proliferate, and the early-stage nature of some proofs. Overall, positive operational momentum and external validation from partners outweigh the remaining clinical and market risks, but the company still faces execution and timing risks as programs advance.Positive Updates
Clinical Pipeline Progress — Five Clinical Stage Programs
Recursion now has 5 clinical-stage programs including REC-4881 (FAP), REC-1245 (RBM39 degrader), and REC-7735 (PI3K H1047R-selective). REC-7735 received IND clearance and is positioned to enter the clinic later this year.
Negative Updates
Early-Stage Clinical and Regulatory Risk
Key programs remain early-stage with meaningful milestones still pending (e.g., REC-7735 first data expected H1 2028). There is limited regulatory precedent in FAP; FDA discussions are ongoing to de-risk study design and determine appropriate primary endpoints, creating regulatory uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Clinical Pipeline Progress — Five Clinical Stage Programs
Recursion now has 5 clinical-stage programs including REC-4881 (FAP), REC-1245 (RBM39 degrader), and REC-7735 (PI3K H1047R-selective). REC-7735 received IND clearance and is positioned to enter the clinic later this year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management lowered 2026 full‑year cash operating expense guidance to $375 million (about a 40% reduction versus comparable 2024 pro forma expenses), reported cash and equivalents of approximately $557 million (runway through early 2028), and noted >$500 million in partnership cash inflows (including >$260 million with Roche‑Genentech and the opportunity for >$300 million of additional milestones per future small‑molecule program); they also cited engine and program metrics including >50 petabytes of multimodal data, ~1 trillion iPSC‑derived neurons and hundreds of billions of microglia, models comparing >17,000 genes across tens of millions of data points, AI agents driving 1.3–1.6x enrollment improvement, and Nesso‑1 delivering Boltz‑2 level accuracy with 10–20x faster inference; pipeline metrics included five clinical‑stage programs, REC‑4881 showing a median 43% polyp burden reduction at 3 months in Phase II, REC‑7735 designed in 10 months (242 compounds, 13 cycles) with >100‑fold selectivity for PIK3CA H1047R (IND cleared, Phase I to start later this year with dose‑escalation data expected H1 2028), and a design efficiency of ~330 compounds to candidate in ~1.5 years versus industry ~2,500 compounds over 4 years, with guidance to expect additional REC‑4881 Phase II data and a year‑end regulatory update, a fuller REC‑1245 update later this year, and REC‑7735 initiation.Recursion Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 54.85M | 74.68M | 58.84M | 43.88M | 39.68M | 10.00M |
| Gross Profit | -25.59M | -46.27M | 13.60M | 1.29M | -8.59M | 10.00M |
| EBITDA | -444.45M | -559.38M | -426.72M | -307.63M | -227.66M | -175.12M |
| Net Income | -518.89M | -644.76M | -463.66M | -328.07M | -239.48M | -186.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.21B | 1.47B | 1.45B | 653.70M | 701.29M | 610.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 545.68M | 743.29M | 594.35M | 391.56M | 549.91M | 516.56M |
| Total Debt | 61.88M | 77.97M | 108.49M | 50.67M | 51.01M | 11.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 297.67M | 343.26M | 413.82M | 190.26M | 215.48M | 67.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 915.00M | 1.13B | 1.03B | 463.44M | 485.81M | 542.94M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -354.26M | -378.28M | -372.87M | -300.33M | -120.88M | -198.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -350.48M | -371.81M | -359.17M | -287.78M | -83.52M | -158.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.09M | -16.87M | 260.06M | -10.23M | 193.25M | -271.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 378.61M | 521.53M | 304.12M | 140.13M | 154.34M | 458.54M |
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Negative
3.56
Price Trends
3.62
Negative
3.47
Negative
3.56
Negative
Market Momentum
0.08
Positive
43.93
Neutral
14.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXRX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.03, below the 50-day MA of 3.62, and below the 200-day MA of 3.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RXRX.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Recursion Pharmaceuticals disclosed 107 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Recursion Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $2.81B | -6.20 | -55.27% | ― | ― | -1.07% | |
59 Neutral | $1.42B | -10.31 | -59.21% | ― | -62.28% | 15.36% | |
57 Neutral | $2.67B | 9.73 | 49.34% | ― | 738.76% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.86B | -3.33 | -50.41% | ― | -15.08% | 41.98% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $830.95M | -4.47 | -43.31% | ― | -83.86% | -646.52% | |
49 Neutral | $1.55B | -11.41 | -108.80% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
RXRX
Recursion Pharmaceuticals
3.47
-3.22
-48.13%
DNLI
Denali Therapeutics
17.61
0.36
2.09%
NRIX
Nurix Therapeutics
24.42
14.03
135.03%
GLUE
Monte Rosa Therapeutics
9.74
-0.13
-1.32%
ABSI
AbSci
8.25
3.45
71.88%
GENB
Generate Biomedicines, Inc.
12.09
-0.56
-4.43%
Recursion Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Recursion Pharmaceuticals prices offering and advances pipeline
Positive
Oct 15, 2026
On Oct. 15, 2026, Recursion Pharmaceuticals moved to strengthen its balance sheet and pipeline by pricing an underwritten public offering of 61.54 million Class A shares at $3.25, for expected gross proceeds of about $200 million before fees. All ...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Recursion, Tempus Expand AI and RNA Collaboration Agreements
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Recursion Pharmaceuticals amended its long-term data and AI collaboration with Tempus AI, extending the master agreement term from five to six years and waiving its prior right to terminate for convenience. The amendment low...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Recursion updates Q2 results and AI-driven pipeline
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Recursion reported second-quarter 2026 results and business updates, highlighting continued execution across its pipeline and AI-driven drug discovery platform. The company lowered its 2026 cash operating expense guidance to und...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.