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Lamb Weston Holdings
(NYSE:LW)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$56.00
▲(1.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is driven primarily by middling financial performance: strong revenue growth is being offset by a notable margin reset and elevated leverage, with cash flow positive but less consistent. Earnings call signals are a constructive offset due to raised fiscal 2027 outlook and strong North America execution, but International/EMEA risks remain meaningful. Technicals and valuation are both mixed, offering only moderate support.
Positive Factors
North America Momentum
Sustained North American volume growth, improving segment profitability, and stronger customer execution indicate durable momentum in the company’s core market. Continued gains across customer wins, partnerships, fill rates, and innovation can support revenue quality and operating leverage over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
The sharp decline in gross and net margins indicates that recent revenue growth is translating less effectively into earnings. Weaker profitability reduces internal funding capacity and leaves results more sensitive to pricing, product mix, and input-cost changes over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America Momentum
Sustained North American volume growth, improving segment profitability, and stronger customer execution indicate durable momentum in the company’s core market. Continued gains across customer wins, partnerships, fill rates, and innovation can support revenue quality and operating leverage over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lamb Weston Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLamb Weston Holdings (LW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.41B
Dividend Yield2.84%
Average Volume (3M)2.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.7
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth2.58%
EPS Growth-11.89%
CountryUS
Employees10,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.85
Shares Outstanding137,780,440
10 Day Avg. Volume3,024,205
30 Day Avg. Volume2,567,853
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.22
Price to Book (P/B)3.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio10.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.50Price Target Upside0.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)3.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.62B
Lamb Weston Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other....
How the Company Makes Money
Lamb Weston makes money by manufacturing and selling frozen potato products—most notably frozen french fries—through a mix of foodservice and retail channels. Revenue is generated when it sells finished frozen products to customers such as quick-s...
Lamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 06, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. The company reported first-quarter results above expectations, raised its fiscal 2027 sales and earnings outlook, delivered strong North America volume and EBITDA growth, and cited progress in customer relationships, cost savings, organizational simplification, and innovation. These positives were partially offset by International underperformance, European crop and input-cost pressures, soft restaurant traffic in several markets, and lower year-over-year adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow.Positive Updates
First-Quarter Results Exceeded Expectations
Fiscal Q1 net sales were $1.670 billion, up 1% from the prior year; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.75, also up 1%; and adjusted EBITDA was $286 million, above guidance.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Declined Year Over Year
Adjusted EBITDA was $286 million, down 5% from the prior year, primarily due to the carry-in of prior-year potato costs in EMEA.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
First-Quarter Results Exceeded Expectations
Fiscal Q1 net sales were $1.670 billion, up 1% from the prior year; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.75, also up 1%; and adjusted EBITDA was $286 million, above guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Lamb Weston raised its net sales outlook to low single-digit growth versus its prior expectation of flat to 1% growth, based on a fiscal 2026 adjusted 52-week net sales base of $6.485 billion; adjusted operating income is targeted at $730 million to $810 million, interest expense is expected at $185 million to $190 million, the tax rate is expected in the range of 25% to 27%, adjusted EPS is expected at $3.05 to $3.35 versus $2.90 in fiscal '26, and adjusted EBITDA is expected at $1.125 billion to $1.215 billion versus $1.118 billion in the 52-week period for fiscal '26. Cash used for capital expenditures is expected at approximately $380 million to $410 million, accrual-basis investments at $330 million to $350 million, and cash provided by operations at $750 million to $800 million, with investment in working capital expected to remain relatively flat year-over-year. For the second quarter, net sales are expected to be up low single digits and adjusted EBITDA up high single digits to low double digits; full-year North America is expected to deliver modest top line growth, while international net sales are expected to be closer to flat, and EMEA capacity utilization is expected to reach more than 90%, or the low 90s once complete.Lamb Weston Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.62B | 6.61B | 6.45B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.28B | 1.36B | 1.40B | 1.77B | 1.43B | 832.00M |
| EBITDA | 919.10M | 987.80M | 1.04B | 1.37B | 1.10B | 636.50M |
| Net Income | 254.80M | 290.00M | 357.20M | 725.50M | 1.01B | 200.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.32B | 7.38B | 7.39B | 7.37B | 6.52B | 4.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 166.30M | 68.20M | 70.70M | 71.40M | 304.80M | 525.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.93B | 3.94B | 4.16B | 3.85B | 3.49B | 2.75B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.52B | 5.56B | 5.65B | 5.58B | 5.11B | 3.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.81B | 1.82B | 1.74B | 1.79B | 1.41B | 360.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 508.50M | 540.20M | 230.10M | -131.30M | 107.70M | 128.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 922.30M | 942.90M | 868.30M | 798.20M | 761.70M | 418.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -394.80M | -380.20M | -648.00M | -984.10M | -1.34B | -310.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -489.70M | -569.10M | -225.00M | -48.00M | 340.80M | -363.40M |
Lamb Weston Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
55.36
Price Trends
49.84
Positive
48.39
Positive
45.80
Positive
Market Momentum
1.81
Negative
68.34
Neutral
83.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.64, above the 50-day MA of 49.84, and above the 200-day MA of 45.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LW.
Lamb Weston Holdings Risk Analysis
Lamb Weston Holdings disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lamb Weston Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lamb Weston Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.11B | 9.28 | 16.36% | ― | 12.46% | 177.68% | |
68 Neutral | $1.53B | 31.27 | 5.40% | 3.91% | -4.69% | -39.51% | |
65 Neutral | $1.65B | 12.12 | 4.94% | 5.76% | 3.56% | -31.26% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $7.41B | 28.71 | 14.13% | 2.84% | 2.58% | -11.89% | |
53 Neutral | $28.26B | -8.22 | -8.44% | 6.81% | -1.62% | 36.06% | |
47 Neutral | $6.89B | -3.53 | -26.28% | 8.73% | -1.80% | -323.82% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
55.18
-8.02
-12.70%
CAG
Conagra Brands
15.07
-2.04
-11.95%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
84.90
-3.86
-4.35%
SENEA
Seneca Foods
164.36
48.80
42.23%
KHC
Kraft Heinz
25.09
1.31
5.50%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
12.23
1.04
9.32%
Lamb Weston Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lamb Weston Announces Planned Transition of International President
Neutral
Oct 6, 2026
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. said that on October 5, 2026, it entered into a transition and separation agreement with Marc Schroeder, its President, International, following his decision to resign and to manage an orderly succession. Under the deal,...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lamb Weston Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentives
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders in Eagle, Idaho, with approximately 84% of outstanding common shares represented. Stockholders elected eleven directors to one-year terms on the Board, signa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.