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Ingredion
(NYSE:INGR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$103.00
▼(-10.63% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and balance-sheet quality, plus an attractive valuation (low P/E and a ~3.5% yield). These positives are tempered by weak technical trend signals (price below all major moving averages) and near-term earnings risk highlighted by the earnings call (Argo disruption, margin compression, and a downgraded 2026 outlook), with corporate events adding both strategic upside (Tate & Lyle) and execution/leverage uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Margin and Profitability
Sustained mid-single-digit to low-double-digit operating profitability demonstrates durable pricing, mix and execution advantages versus commodity peers. Higher margins support reinvestment, dividends and targeted M&A, helping the company absorb input cost swings while funding specialty growth initiatives.
Negative Factors
Weak Top-line Momentum
A pronounced decline in trailing revenues signals demand softness, volume loss or pass-through normalization that undermines operating leverage. Sustained top-line weakness compresses margins, limits reinvestment capacity and makes earnings and return targets harder to achieve without durable recovery in volumes or pricing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin and Profitability
Sustained mid-single-digit to low-double-digit operating profitability demonstrates durable pricing, mix and execution advantages versus commodity peers. Higher margins support reinvestment, dividends and targeted M&A, helping the company absorb input cost swings while funding specialty growth initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Ingredion Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks sales down by product line or region to show where growth is coming from and how reliant the company is on specific markets or products. For retail investors, this helps spot fast-growing specialty businesses versus mature, commodity-exposed lines and assess diversification, seasonal patterns, and geographic risk exposure.
Breaks sales down by product line or region to show where growth is coming from and how reliant the company is on specific markets or products. For retail investors, this helps spot fast-growing specialty businesses versus mature, commodity-exposed lines and assess diversification, seasonal patterns, and geographic risk exposure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyIngredion (INGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.16B
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)0.34
Revenue Growth-2.21%
EPS Growth9.29%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.54
Shares Outstanding63,059,060
10 Day Avg. Volume1,431,686
30 Day Avg. Volume1,000,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.65
Price to Book (P/B)1.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio13.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$111.75Price Target Upside-3.04% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)10.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.25B
Ingredion Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ingredion Incorporated, along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the global production and sale of starches and sweeteners, catering to a diverse range of industries. The company's operations are strategically organized into four geograp...
How the Company Makes Money
Ingredion makes money by producing ingredient products at scale and selling them to manufacturers, earning revenue primarily from the sale of (1) specialty ingredients (e.g., texturizers, clean-label and functional starches, and other value-added ...
Ingredion Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of positive strategic momentum in higher-value areas (Texture & Healthful Solutions, solutions-led growth, strong growth in pea protein) and substantial near-term operational and financial challenges (Argo operational disruptions, margin compression, FX headwinds, and revised full-year outlook). Management has taken corrective actions and highlighted balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation, but the magnitude of the Q1 operating income decline and the significant Argo impact weighed heavily on results and guidance.Positive Updates
Stable Net Sales with Modest Decline
Net sales of $1.8 billion in Q1 2026, down 1% year-over-year, reflecting modest revenue resilience despite operational headwinds.
Negative Updates
Material Operating Income Decline
Adjusted operating income fell 22% year-over-year; reported and adjusted operating income were $203M and $212M respectively, reflecting meaningful margin pressure in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Net Sales with Modest Decline
Net sales of $1.8 billion in Q1 2026, down 1% year-over-year, reflecting modest revenue resilience despite operational headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ingredion updated 2026 guidance expecting full-year net sales to be flat to up low single digits and adjusted operating income to be down high single digits, with adjusted diluted EPS of $10.45–$11.15 (based on 63.5–64.5 million diluted shares); estimated financing costs of $35–$45 million; a reported and adjusted effective tax rate of 26.0%–27.5%; cash from operations of $725–$825 million; and capital expenditures of $400–$440 million (guidance assumes current tariff levels and excludes acquisition integration or impairment costs). The outlook reflects the Q1 results that drove the revision: Q1 net sales of $1.8 billion (down 1%), gross margin 22.4%, reported operating income $203 million and adjusted operating income $212 million, a $40 million Argo-related Q1 impact (vs. $10–$15 million expected), YTD cash from operations $33 million, YTD CapEx $110 million, $52 million of dividends and $14 million of share repurchases, and adjusted EPS headwinds of $0.63 year‑over‑year (including $0.71 margin and $0.14 volume impacts, offset in part by $0.07 FX and $0.08 other income). Segment-level guidance: Texture & Healthful Solutions net sales unchanged with operating income up low single digits; Food & Industrial Ingredients LatAm net sales flat to down low single digits and operating income down low single digits; Food & Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada net sales down low single digits and operating income down low double digits; All Other operating income to improve $5–$10 million; the outlook assumes sequential Argo recovery (germ processing returning in Q2) and reflects FX and higher energy/logistics pressures.Ingredion Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.20B | 7.22B | 7.43B | 8.16B | 7.95B | 6.89B |
| Gross Profit | 1.76B | 1.83B | 1.79B | 1.75B | 1.49B | 1.33B |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.00M | 542.00M |
| Net Income | 674.00M | 729.00M | 647.00M | 643.00M | 492.00M | 117.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.93B | 7.90B | 7.44B | 7.64B | 7.56B | 7.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 918.00M | 1.03B | 1.01B | 409.00M | 239.00M | 332.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.82B | 1.79B | 2.04B | 2.40B | 2.68B | 2.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.48B | 3.53B | 3.55B | 3.99B | 4.30B | 3.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.42B | 4.34B | 3.86B | 3.59B | 3.19B | 3.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 747.00M | 511.00M | 1.14B | 741.00M | -148.00M | 92.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 900.00M | 944.00M | 1.44B | 1.06B | 152.00M | 392.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -461.00M | -444.00M | -47.00M | -329.00M | -320.00M | -335.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -378.00M | -491.00M | -765.00M | -569.00M | 103.00M | -373.00M |
Ingredion Technical Analysis
Negative
115.25
Price Trends
102.26
Negative
107.39
Negative
109.70
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.85
Negative
45.56
Neutral
23.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.03, above the 50-day MA of 102.26, and above the 200-day MA of 109.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for INGR.
Ingredion Risk Analysis
Ingredion disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ingredion reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ingredion Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.42B | 25.35 | 6.24% | 3.53% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
67 Neutral | $6.16B | 9.26 | 15.57% | 2.86% | -2.21% | 9.29% | |
67 Neutral | $8.98B | 40.09 | 4.72% | ― | 11.11% | 30.83% | |
63 Neutral | $4.21B | 14.25 | 9.40% | ― | 7.16% | 6.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $6.84B | 7.69 | 24.19% | ― | 3.30% | -26.64% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
INGR
Ingredion
97.62
-35.64
-26.75%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
56.53
17.08
43.30%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
75.92
-38.10
-33.41%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
28.76
-15.11
-34.45%
POST
Post Holdings
92.78
-16.06
-14.76%
Ingredion Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ingredion Sells Majority Stake in Rafhan Maize
Positive
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Ingredion completed the sale of 51% of the issued share capital of Rafhan Maize Products Co. Ltd. to a purchaser group led by Nishat Hotels and Properties Limited, affiliates of Pakistan’s diversified Nishat Group. Ingredio...
M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ingredion Secures Term Loan to Support Tate & Lyle Acquisition
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Ingredion entered into a $1.475 billion senior unsecured delayed draw term loan facility with a syndicate of lenders led by JPMorgan Chase, structured in two tranches maturing three and five years after funding. The financing is ...
Executive/Board Changes
Ingredion Adds Independent Director Kenneth Escoe to Board
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 7, 2026, Ingredion’s board elected Kenneth Escoe, 51, executive vice president of Specialty Products at Illinois Tool Works Inc., to serve as an independent director for a term beginning July 1, 2026. His election adds senior leaders...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ingredion Announces All-Cash Acquisition Offer for Tate & Lyle
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Ingredion announced a recommended all-cash offer to acquire U.K.-based Tate Lyle PLC, valuing the target’s equity at about £2.7 billion and implying an enterprise value of roughly £3.7 billion, with shareholders o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ingredion Shareholders Reelect Board, Back Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 22, 2026
At its May 20, 2026 annual meeting, Ingredion stockholders elected all 11 director nominees to one-year terms, reaffirming the current board composition and leadership structure. Shareholders also approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation o...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Ingredion makes non-binding all-cash bid for Tate & Lyle
Positive
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Ingredion announced it had made a non-binding, indicative all-cash proposal to acquire Tate Lyle PLC at 595 pence per share, covering the entire issued and to be issued share capital. The potential terms would allow Tate Lyle to...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ingredion Announces Brazil Plant Closure and Impairment Charges
Negative
May 5, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Ingredion announced it will cease operations at its Cabo, Brazil manufacturing facility as of June 30, 2026, and intends to sell the plant and underlying real estate. The decision reflects a significant restructuring move in its La...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.