Want to see POST full AI Analyst Report?
Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis
Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
The score is driven primarily by financial performance: strong and improving free cash flow is offset by high leverage and a sharp TTM revenue decline with thin net margins. Technicals are broadly neutral with longer-term trend pressure, while valuation looks reasonable on P/E. Earnings call messaging was balanced—guidance stability and operational progress tempered by cautious FY2027 outlook and inflation/rate-driven headwinds.
Post Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.72B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 894.17K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 14.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.03
- Revenue Growth
- 6.20%
- EPS Growth
- -7.36%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 13,180
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Post Holdings, Inc. functions as a prominent holding company within the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, conducting business both domestically in the United States and across international markets. Its diverse operations are structured into fi...
How the Company Makes Money
Post Holdings makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaged foods, beverages, and food ingredients across its operating segments, generating revenue when products are shipped to and purchased by customers (e.g., retailers, distributors,...
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a balanced mix of constructive operational progress (Foodservice normalization, asset optimization, material share repurchases YTD, early pet stabilization and improved marketing efficiency) and material near-term headwinds (ongoing volume pressures in cereal and pet value segments, higher-than-expected inflation, promotional dynamics, and higher interest rates prompting more debt focus). Management maintained guidance midpoint and narrowed the range, signaling confidence in near-term plans, but emphasized cautious assumptions for FY2027. Overall, the positives and negatives were roughly balanced.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
On the call management said Q3 results were slightly ahead of expectations and confirmed they are maintaining the midpoint of fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance while narrowing the range; they repurchased 4% of shares in the quarter (≈17% fiscal year‑to‑date) and remain comfortable targeting mid‑4s leverage, with no bond maturities for ~4 years. After adjusting FY26 for about $80 million of items affecting comparability, they enter FY2027 with a comparable adjusted EBITDA base of roughly $1.48 billion and a preliminary outlook that FY27 adjusted EBITDA will be generally flat to that level, supported by Foodservice (a normalized run‑rate they peg near $500 million), targeted pricing (expected later in the year), cost savings and line‑rate growth; management also noted CapEx pacing raised slightly at the low end, 10‑year refinancing rates have moved ~50 bps higher, inflation appears at the higher end of prior expectations, cereal category trends near a 2–2.5% decline (long‑term -1% to -2%), and pet market share is about 3–3.2%.
Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is a clear strength (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.47B, free cash flow ~$0.82B, and ~59% TTM FCF growth), but overall financial quality is constrained by high leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~2.48x; total debt ~$7.6B) and a sharp TTM revenue contraction (-43%), with thin and compressing net margins (~3.5% TTM).
Income Statement
56NeutralBalance Sheet
42NeutralCash Flow
71Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.41B | 8.16B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.16B | 1.76B | 1.26B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.59B | 913.10M |
| Net Income | 293.00M | 335.70M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 166.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.85B | 13.53B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 265.60M | 176.70M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 664.50M |
| Total Debt | 7.63B | 7.70B | 7.06B | 6.23B | 6.10B | 6.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.76B | 9.76B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.08B | 3.75B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.10M | 488.10M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 992.60M | 998.30M | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -779.90M | -1.42B | -677.50M | -669.30M | -221.00M | -793.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00B | -188.60M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -386.70M | -167.50M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 84.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 80.09, above the 50-day MA of 78.72, and below the 200-day MA of 91.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksPost Holdings Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
SJM64Neutral
HRL58Neutral- POST56Neutral
CPB50Neutral
GIS48Neutral
CAG41Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJM | 64Neutral | $14.15B | 61.98 | 4.06% | 3.32% | 5.08% | ― |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| HRL | 58Neutral | $12.53B | 35.87 | 4.33% | 5.18% | 0.73% | -54.64% |
| POST | 56Neutral | $3.73B | 14.19 | 8.69% | ― | 6.20% | -7.36% |
| CPB | 50Neutral | $6.94B | 17.48 | 10.18% | 6.06% | -4.96% | -33.88% |
| GIS | 48Neutral | $19.17B | -22.10 | -10.69% | 6.69% | -4.49% | -131.46% |
| CAG | 41Neutral | $7.29B | -3.90 | -26.28% | 6.77% | -1.80% | -323.82% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POST | Post Holdings Inc. | 84.72 | -21.96 | -20.58% | |
| CPB | Campbell Soup Company | 23.43 | -5.46 | -18.90% | |
| CAG | Conagra Brands | 15.51 | -0.51 | -3.21% | |
| GIS | General Mills Inc | 36.46 | -7.39 | -16.86% | |
| HRL | Hormel Foods Corp | 22.60 | 1.73 | 8.28% | |
| SJM | J.M. Smucker Company | 133.25 | 30.42 | 29.59% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2026