Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 574.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.08
• Revenue Growth: 0.80%
• EPS Growth: 10.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,480
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.03
• Shares Outstanding: 54,320,126
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 679,750
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 574,951
• PEG Ratio: 1.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.99
• 1Y Price Target: $126.75
• Price Target Upside: 18.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $120.00 ▲(12.49% Upside)

Post Holdings shows strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, such as acquisitions and tax optimizations, which bolster its position. However, high leverage and challenges in core segments like cereal and pet volumes pose risks. The technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, and the valuation is moderate. The absence of a dividend yield may deter income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of 8th Avenue enhances Post Holdings' product offerings, particularly in nut butter and granola, and is expected to yield synergies, strengthening its market position.

Cash Flow Management

Projected $300 million reduction in cash taxes over five years improves cash flow, allowing for reinvestment and debt reduction, enhancing financial flexibility.

Operational Efficiency

Adjusted EBITDA nearing $400 million despite macro challenges indicates strong operational efficiency and resilience, supporting long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Volume Declines

Declining volumes in cereal and pet segments highlight challenges in maintaining market share, which could impact future revenue growth and brand strength.

Limited Free Cash Flow Conversion

Limited conversion of earnings into free cash flow may restrict financial flexibility, affecting the company's ability to fund new investments and reduce debt.

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company based in the United States, primarily engaged in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of a wide variety of food products. The company operates in several sectors, including the breakfast cereals, snacks, and nutrition segments, with a diverse portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and PowerBar. Post Holdings also has a significant presence in the private label and food service sectors, catering to both retail and institutional customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Post Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams primarily focused on the sale of branded and private label food products. Its revenue model is built around the production and distribution of breakfast cereals, snacks, and nutritional products, which are sold through various channels including grocery stores, mass retailers, and food service establishments. The company benefits from established brand loyalty and market presence, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and drive sales. Additionally, strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the integration of brands like Bob's Red Mill and the acquisition of various snack and nutrition brands, enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also leverages economies of scale and efficient supply chain management to optimize profitability.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Post Holdings exhibits robust revenue growth and operational efficiency, as reflected in its income statement. The balance sheet highlights a high leverage level, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Cash flow generation is strong, supporting operational needs and growth initiatives. Overall, the company is in a solid financial position, but attention should be paid to managing debt levels.

Income Statement

Post Holdings has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a notable increase in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains healthy, and the net profit margin has shown consistent improvement. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, indicating efficient operations. However, the net profit margin is relatively low compared to industry standards, which could be a concern for long-term profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high, suggesting significant leverage, which poses a risk if not managed properly. Return on equity has improved over time, indicating effective use of equity. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a balanced approach to financing assets. Overall, while the balance sheet shows some strengths, the high leverage is a potential risk factor.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong and covers net income well, indicating good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow has grown significantly in the TTM period, which is a positive sign for future investments and debt repayment. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that a substantial portion of earnings is not converted into free cash flow, which could limit financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.92B	7.92B	6.99B	5.85B	4.98B	4.71B
Gross Profit	2.31B	2.30B	1.88B	1.47B	1.43B	1.45B
EBITDA	1.31B	1.27B	1.10B	830.10M	913.10M	633.00M
Net Income	366.10M	366.70M	301.30M	756.60M	166.70M	800.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.37B	12.85B	11.65B	11.31B	12.41B	12.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	787.40M	103.90M	681.30M	664.50M	1.19B
Total Debt	7.35B	7.06B	6.23B	6.10B	6.57B	7.15B
Total Liabilities	9.36B	8.75B	7.80B	7.74B	9.36B	9.32B
Stockholders Equity	4.00B	4.09B	3.84B	3.25B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	563.70M	502.20M	447.30M	128.90M	395.70M	391.00M
Operating Cash Flow	932.40M	931.70M	750.30M	384.20M	588.20M	625.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-612.60M	-677.50M	-669.30M	-220.20M	-793.60M	-218.50M
Financing Cash Flow	396.20M	415.60M	-555.70M	-237.20M	-167.50M	-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 106.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 106.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.13, above the 50-day MA of 106.28, and below the 200-day MA of 109.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	79 Outperform	―	―	―	―	-1.19%	78.79%
POST	74 Outperform	$5.73B	17.96	9.23%	―	0.80%	10.43%
FLO	68 Neutral	$2.56B	11.69	13.73%	8.37%	0.26%	-19.45%
LW	67 Neutral	$8.75B	30.13	16.22%	2.39%	<0.01%	-51.18%
CAG	64 Neutral	$8.18B	9.64	9.65%	8.17%	-4.11%	72.17%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
BRBR	55 Neutral	$3.65B	16.73	―	―	16.27%	5.13%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

Post Holdings Amends Bylaws to Empower Shareholders

On October 16, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its bylaws to allow shareholders with at least 25% of voting stock to call special meetings. This change enhances shareholder engagement and could impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $119.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings Announces $500M Share Repurchase Plan

On August 29, 2025, Post Holdings announced a definitive agreement to sell the pasta business of its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, to Richardson (US) Holdings Limited for $375 million in cash and the assumption of $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities. This transaction is expected to close in the first fiscal quarter of 2026, with Post retaining the nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which are projected to contribute $45-50 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026. Additionally, Post’s Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization effective August 29, 2025, replacing the previous authorization and allowing flexibility in repurchasing shares without obligating the company to acquire any specific number.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Hold with a $131.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings Inc. Reports Mixed Sentiments in Q3 Earnings

Post Holdings Inc. Navigates Mixed Sentiments in Latest Earnings Call

Post Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Raises Outlook

Post Holdings, Inc., a consumer packaged goods holding company based in St. Louis, Missouri, operates in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice, and food ingredient categories, with notable brands such as Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix. In its third fiscal quarter of 2025, Post Holdings reported net sales of $2.0 billion, an operating profit of $234.6 million, and net earnings of $108.8 million. The company also raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1,500-$1,520 million. Key financial highlights include a 1.9% increase in net sales compared to the prior year, driven by growth in the Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments, while Post Consumer Brands faced declines due to pet food distribution losses and cereal category declines. The acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho contributed to the growth in the Foodservice segment. Looking ahead, Post Holdings remains optimistic about its financial performance, with management raising its Adjusted EBITDA guidance and planning significant capital expenditures to optimize its operations and expand facilities.

Post Holdings Announces Leadership Change with New COO

On August 5, 2025, Post Holdings announced the retirement of Jeff A. Zadoks from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 2, 2026, with Nicolas Catoggio set to succeed him. Catoggio, who has been with Post Consumer Brands since 2021, brings over two decades of experience in the consumer goods industry, including significant roles at Boston Consulting Group and Unilever. In its third fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025, Post Holdings reported net sales of $2.0 billion and an operating profit of $234.6 million, with a notable increase in Adjusted EBITDA. The company also raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook, reflecting strong performance in segments like Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, despite challenges in Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.