Flowers Foods (FLO)
NYSE:FLO
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Flowers Foods
(NYSE:FLO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-5.99% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and higher leverage, alongside bearish price/momentum signals. Offsetting factors include solid free cash flow, supportive income characteristics from the very high dividend yield, and a cautiously positive earnings-call setup with reaffirmed guidance, hedging, and cost actions despite ongoing top-line and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent free cash flow (~$306M TTM) and high cash conversion (~70% of net income) provide durable internal funding. This supports debt paydown, productivity capex and brand investment over the next 2–6 months, reducing reliance on external financing amid elevated leverage.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage has increased materially (debt/equity ~1.8x), raising financial risk and interest sensitivity. Higher debt limits strategic optionality, increases financing costs and constrains the pace of reinvestment or M&A unless free cash flow is consistently directed to debt reduction.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistent free cash flow (~$306M TTM) and high cash conversion (~70% of net income) provide durable internal funding. This supports debt paydown, productivity capex and brand investment over the next 2–6 months, reducing reliance on external financing amid elevated leverage.
Read all positive factors
Flowers Foods (FLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.57B
Dividend Yield9.15%
Average Volume (3M)8.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.1
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth3.80%
EPS Growth-68.17%
CountryUS
Employees10,200
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding211,993,230
10 Day Avg. Volume10,440,855
30 Day Avg. Volume8,877,410
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio7.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside-8.93% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.18B
Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon...
How the Company Makes Money
Flowers Foods makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaged bakery products to (1) retail customers (e.g., grocery, mass merchandise, club, convenience) and (2) foodservice and other away-from-home channels. Revenue is generated thro...
Flowers Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced meaningful operational and financial progress—bottom-line results ahead of expectations, a major brand relaunch (Nature's Own), strong hedging for core commodities, targeted cost and balance-sheet actions (including a dividend reset freeing ~$100M)—against persistent top-line softness, underperformance in the large traditional loaf segment (~38% of branded retail), and rising oil-driven packaging and distribution costs (an incremental ~$0.02–$0.03 headwind in the back half). Management emphasized productivity and SG&A levers, reaffirmed guidance, and prioritized deleveraging to below 3.0x, suggesting cautious confidence. Overall, positives (relaunch, hedging, cost discipline, balance-sheet moves) slightly outweigh the headwinds and uncertainties.Positive Updates
Bottom-Line Results Ahead of Expectations and Guidance Reaffirmed
Management reported bottom-line results ahead of expectations and reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing confidence driven by hedging, cost management, brand initiatives and expected easier comps in the back half of the year.
Negative Updates
Softer Top-Line Trends and Traditional Loaf Underperformance
Management acknowledged softer top-line trends in the quarter and underperformance in the traditional loaf category, which is a large segment (approximately 38% of branded retail) and a key driver of volume weakness.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Bottom-Line Results Ahead of Expectations and Guidance Reaffirmed
Management reported bottom-line results ahead of expectations and reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing confidence driven by hedging, cost management, brand initiatives and expected easier comps in the back half of the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance, saying they are "virtually fully hedged" for the balance of 2026 on program commodities, have embedded roughly $0.02–$0.03 of incremental back‑half headwind tied to oil/resin/packaging (and diesel impacts), expect easier volume comps as the year progresses (they do not guide to volume), and have factored in continued SG&A and productivity actions; they also noted the nationwide Nature's Own relaunch (6–12 months to assess impact), capex of $115–$125 million (about $2 million per bakery for maintenance, remainder for growth), that a dividend reset would free ~ $100 million (potentially reducing leverage by ~0.2 turns) and reiterated a target of getting net leverage below 3.0x by the end of fiscal 2027, while traditional loaf represents ~38% of branded retail.Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.27B | 5.26B | 5.10B | 5.09B | 4.81B | 4.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.53B | 2.57B | 2.53B | 2.46B | 2.30B | 2.16B |
| EBITDA | 351.39M | 359.16M | 525.28M | 345.43M | 469.59M | 438.87M |
| Net Income | 72.88M | 83.83M | 248.12M | 123.42M | 228.39M | 206.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 4.18B | 3.40B | 3.43B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.52K | 12.10M | 5.00M | 22.53M | 165.13M | 185.87M |
| Total Debt | 2.05B | 2.33B | 1.36B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.88B | 2.88B | 1.99B | 2.08B | 1.87B | 1.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.30B | 1.30B | 1.41B | 1.35B | 1.44B | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 306.37M | 319.09M | 280.58M | 220.28M | 191.82M | 133.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 428.55M | 446.20M | 412.66M | 349.35M | 360.89M | 344.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -126.77M | -943.15M | -172.67M | -403.81M | -151.09M | -191.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -297.59M | 504.05M | -257.52M | -88.15M | -222.17M | -274.78M |
Flowers Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
8.51
Price Trends
8.19
Negative
9.10
Negative
10.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
39.32
Neutral
53.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.78, above the 50-day MA of 8.19, and below the 200-day MA of 10.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.
Flowers Foods Risk Analysis
Flowers Foods disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Flowers Foods reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Flowers Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $4.11B | 12.88 | 9.40% | ― | 7.16% | 6.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.43B | 24.62 | 6.24% | 3.53% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
59 Neutral | $1.07B | -9.97 | -6.15% | ― | 0.34% | -182.07% | |
53 Neutral | $1.57B | 21.15 | 5.34% | 9.15% | 3.80% | -68.17% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
FLO
Flowers Foods
7.27
-8.05
-52.53%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
75.77
-34.88
-31.52%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
11.41
-22.46
-66.31%
POST
Post Holdings
91.00
-18.84
-17.15%
Flowers Foods Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Flowers Foods Shareholders Approve Directors and Compensation Plan
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Flowers Foods, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where investors elected nine director nominees to one-year terms, with each receiving a majority of votes cast and set to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Shareholde...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Flowers Foods Posts Modest Q1 Growth, Resets Dividend Policy
Neutral
May 21, 2026
Flowers Foods reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 21, 2026, with net sales up 1.1% to $1.57 billion, driven by the Simple Mills acquisition and pricing, while volumes declined amid a challenging consumer environment. Net income fell 20.6% t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Flowers Foods Enters New Term Loan, Amends Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Flowers Foods entered into a $400 million senior unsecured delayed draw term loan facility to refinance its $400 million 3.500% senior notes maturing in October 2026, with proceeds earmarked for full repayment of those notes and ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Flowers Foods Streamlines Leadership, Eliminates Chief Growth Officer Role
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Flowers Foods and chief growth officer Terry Thomas agreed he would depart the company and his role would be dissolved effective April 24, 2026, with Thomas receiving a severance package including cash and extended medical cover...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.