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Flowers Foods
(NYSE:FLO)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▼(-1.55% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/22/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (sharp margin/ROE deterioration and higher leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Cash flow generation and a very high dividend yield provide partial support, while the latest earnings call suggests a credible stabilization plan but with clear near-term volume and competitive headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provide Flowers with internally generated resources to fund operations, service obligations, and maintain shareholder returns. Cash-backed earnings also offer resilience while management executes productivity initiatives and works to stabilize volume.
Negative Factors
Persistent fresh-bread volume weakness
A 9.5% fresh-bread volume decline signals pressure on a core category rather than a minor fluctuation, while expected Q3 sales declines indicate the weakness may persist into the next quarter. Lower volumes can reduce scale benefits and make recovery dependent on later initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provide Flowers with internally generated resources to fund operations, service obligations, and maintain shareholder returns. Cash-backed earnings also offer resilience while management executes productivity initiatives and works to stabilize volume.
Read all positive factors
Flowers Foods (FLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.33B
Dividend Yield13.84%
Average Volume (3M)6.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth2.46%
EPS Growth-75.05%
CountryUS
Employees10,300
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding212,057,420
10 Day Avg. Volume8,676,349
30 Day Avg. Volume6,498,114
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio7.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.50Price Target Upside-8.58% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.17B
Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Flowers Foods, Inc. focuses on the manufacturing and sale of pre-packaged bakery items across the United States. Its extensive product range includes freshly baked goods such as breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, alongside frozen bre...
How the Company Makes Money
Flowers Foods makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaged bakery products to customers such as grocery and mass retail chains, club stores, convenience stores, and foodservice distributors/operators. Revenue is generated from (1) b...
Flowers Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: significant near‑term challenges including a large 9.5% fresh bread volume decline, competitive and promotional pressure, and potential inflation risks for 2027, balanced by meaningful actions — sizable historical cost reductions (~$200M), additional back‑half cost measures, a ~$20M tailwind into 2027, material new business wins, and an active innovation and brand relaunch program (Nature's Own) that show early positive signs. Management acknowledges the work required and provided a clear plan to drive stabilization across product innovation, pricing/promotions review and execution.Positive Updates
Cost Reductions and Productivity
Company has removed roughly $200 million of cost from the business over the last several years and implemented additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half of FY2026; management cited ~ $20 million of tailwind that will carry into FY2027 from actions taken.
Negative Updates
Material Fresh Bread Volume Decline
Fresh bread unit volumes declined 9.5% year‑over‑year in Q2 2026, a significant driver of results and cited as the key operational challenge for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Cost Reductions and Productivity
Company has removed roughly $200 million of cost from the business over the last several years and implemented additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half of FY2026; management cited ~ $20 million of tailwind that will carry into FY2027 from actions taken.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the Q2 FY2026 call Flowers Foods said results missed expectations, citing a 9.5% year‑over‑year decline in fresh bread volume, and guided to year‑over‑year declines in Q3 with normalization in Q4 as back‑half initiatives ramp; cited metrics and drivers include substantial new business wins coming in Q3/Q4 (across Away‑from‑Home and retail), roughly $200 million of cumulative cost reductions taken over prior years plus additional back‑half savings, an estimated ~$20 million tailwind into fiscal 2027 from recent actions, most commodities for the remainder of 2026 being fully hedged (with packaging exposed to oil/diesel/resin), and product/marketing levers (Nature’s Own relaunch, innovation in half‑loaves/sourdough/protein and normalized promo cadence) intended to support recovery—noting sourdough is now a ~$1.3 billion subcategory—while fiscal 2027 planning is ongoing and no specific 2027 targets were provided.Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.22B | 5.26B | 5.10B | 5.09B | 4.81B | 4.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 2.57B | 2.53B | 2.46B | 2.30B | 2.16B |
| EBITDA | 286.33M | 359.16M | 525.28M | 345.43M | 469.59M | 438.87M |
| Net Income | 55.17M | 83.83M | 248.12M | 123.42M | 228.39M | 206.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.19B | 4.18B | 3.40B | 3.43B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.77M | 12.10M | 5.00M | 22.53M | 165.13M | 185.87M |
| Total Debt | 2.01B | 2.08B | 1.36B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.86B | 2.88B | 1.99B | 2.08B | 1.87B | 1.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.32B | 1.30B | 1.41B | 1.35B | 1.44B | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 315.89M | 319.09M | 280.58M | 220.28M | 191.82M | 133.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 431.12M | 446.20M | 412.66M | 349.35M | 360.89M | 344.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -116.53M | -943.15M | -172.67M | -403.81M | -151.09M | -191.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -272.87M | 504.05M | -257.52M | -88.15M | -222.17M | -274.78M |
Flowers Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
7.11
Price Trends
7.61
Negative
7.74
Negative
8.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
29.79
Positive
6.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.07, below the 50-day MA of 7.61, and below the 200-day MA of 8.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.79 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.
Flowers Foods Risk Analysis
Flowers Foods disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Flowers Foods reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Flowers Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.57B | 32.17 | 5.40% | 3.80% | -4.69% | -39.51% | |
57 Neutral | $1.01B | -5.28 | -12.33% | 3.00% | -4.48% | -250.67% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | $3.72B | 14.18 | 8.69% | ― | 6.20% | -7.36% | |
46 Neutral | $1.33B | 24.12 | 4.13% | 11.88% | 2.46% | -75.05% |
* General Sector Average
FLO
Flowers Foods
6.27
-7.68
-55.06%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
84.11
-20.36
-19.49%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
11.45
-16.73
-59.37%
POST
Post Holdings
84.64
-21.67
-20.38%
Flowers Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Flowers Foods Updates Corporate Governance and Bylaws Framework
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
On August 28, 2026, Flowers Foods, Inc.’s board of directors approved amended and restated bylaws that modernize and clarify the company’s corporate governance framework. The revisions refine disclosure requirements for shareholders se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.