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JM Smucker
(NYSE:SJM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$119.00
â–²(24.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash generation and a markedly improved balance-sheet leverage profile, which help offset inconsistent profitability. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, though momentum is somewhat overbought. Valuation is weaker due to a negative P/E despite a ~3.9% dividend yield. Earnings call guidance is mixed: EPS improvement is expected, but FY27 sales are guided down and tariff/category headwinds remain.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistently positive and rising operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Strong cash generation funds dividends, capital spending, transformation initiatives and debt paydown without relying on volatile earnings, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Profitability volatility
Large swings in net margin indicate earnings fragility versus stable sales, making long-term earnings forecasting and investment planning difficult. Volatility raises the risk that operational improvements may be offset by commodity or portfolio shocks over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistently positive and rising operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. Strong cash generation funds dividends, capital spending, transformation initiatives and debt paydown without relying on volatile earnings, supporting long-term operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, revealing which parts of the company are performing well and contributing most to overall sales.
Breaks down revenue streams by business segment, revealing which parts of the company are performing well and contributing most to overall sales.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.02B
Dividend Yield4.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.93M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth3.72%
EPS Growth88.76%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.30
Shares Outstanding106,880,690
10 Day Avg. Volume2,087,837
30 Day Avg. Volume1,932,250
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio9.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.00Price Target Upside27.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)10.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.81B
JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Co...
How the Company Makes Money
JM Smucker makes money primarily by selling branded packaged goods to customers such as mass retailers, grocery chains, club stores, e-commerce retailers, and foodservice distributors. Revenue is generated across its major operating segments: (1) ...
JM Smucker Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 09, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflects a cautiously optimistic tone: strong operational and financial positives (record cash flow, major brand milestones, margin tailwinds from coffee, Hostess stabilization and a Q4 beat) are balanced against macro and portfolio headwinds (FY27 net sales guidance down 3%–4%, spreads weakness, tariff uncertainty and segment-level inflation). Management emphasized prudence in modeling and continued investments for growth while targeting debt reduction.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Allocation
Reported company-high free cash flow of ~$1.2 billion in FY26; targeting ~$1.0 billion+ in FY27. Used FY26 cash to pay dividends (~$450M) and reduce debt; plan to further reduce leverage toward ~3.0x by year-end to enable potential future share repurchases.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Top-Line Guidance Decline
Company guided FY27 net sales down 3%–4% year-over-year (Q1 flat then deceleration), reflecting prudence in modeling consumer elasticities and category dynamics.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Generation and Capital Allocation
Reported company-high free cash flow of ~$1.2 billion in FY26; targeting ~$1.0 billion+ in FY27. Used FY26 cash to pay dividends (~$450M) and reduce debt; plan to further reduce leverage toward ~3.0x by year-end to enable potential future share repurchases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to fiscal 2027 sales roughly flat in Q1 and down about 3%–4% for the full year, with EPS expected to improve by about $0.85 year‑over‑year (approximately $0.75 of that from segment profit gains in coffee and Sweet Baked Snacks), and an EPS cadence of mid‑teens (Q1), better than mid‑teens (Q2), low single digits (Q3) and flat to slightly down (Q4). Management expects mid‑single‑digit green‑coffee deflation (with deflation flow beginning in Q2) while excluding green coffee and tariffs they model low‑single‑digit cost inflation across packaging/ingredients/transport; retail coffee margins are expected to return to the high‑20s percent. Sweet Baked Snacks (Hostess) is expected to deliver roughly +30% segment profit growth as the business stabilizes, Uncrustables is now a $1.0B brand and is expected to grow mid‑single digits (≈75% retail / 25% away‑from‑home), marketing is budgeted at ~5.7% of net sales (about a $30M increase to nearly a $500M spend), the company expects roughly $1.0B of free cash flow in FY27 (FY26 was ~$1.2B), assumes ~10% tariffs with no refund benefit baked into guidance, and plans further debt paydown (targeting ~ $500M) to approach ~3x leverage from ~3.8x.JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.05B | 8.73B | 8.18B | 8.53B | 8.00B |
| Gross Profit | 3.03B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 2.80B | 2.70B |
| EBITDA | 529.40M | -155.60M | 1.69B | 573.80M | 1.46B |
| Net Income | -138.70M | -1.23B | 744.00M | -91.30M | 631.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.22B | 17.56B | 20.27B | 14.99B | 16.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.60M | 69.90M | 62.00M | 1.14B | 169.90M |
| Total Debt | 7.09B | 7.76B | 8.55B | 4.42B | 4.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.68B | 11.48B | 12.58B | 7.70B | 7.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.54B | 6.08B | 7.69B | 7.29B | 8.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.16B | 816.60M | 642.90M | 717.00M | 718.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.47B | 1.21B | 1.23B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -258.80M | -100.30M | -3.96B | 262.60M | -355.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -1.10B | 2.14B | -964.60M | -944.50M |
JM Smucker Technical Analysis
Positive
95.50
Price Trends
102.63
Positive
102.57
Positive
101.77
Positive
Market Momentum
3.10
Positive
64.42
Neutral
60.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 95.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.40, below the 50-day MA of 102.63, and below the 200-day MA of 101.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.
JM Smucker Risk Analysis
JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JM Smucker Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $13.56B | 8.34 | 27.31% | 2.61% | 9.54% | 108.44% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $12.02B | -86.76 | -2.44% | 4.45% | 3.72% | 88.76% | |
62 Neutral | $6.64B | 10.85 | 15.30% | 5.64% | -2.90% | 33.92% | |
62 Neutral | $18.57B | 8.56 | 23.70% | 5.19% | -6.48% | -10.99% | |
62 Neutral | $13.66B | 29.34 | 5.86% | 4.82% | 2.47% | -37.67% | |
56 Neutral | $6.44B | -149.72 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -4.73% | -112.96% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SJM
JM Smucker
112.50
13.68
13.84%
CPB
Campbell Soup
22.27
-7.66
-25.60%
CAG
Conagra Brands
13.46
-5.91
-30.52%
GIS
General Mills
34.80
-15.53
-30.86%
HRL
Hormel Foods
24.82
-4.42
-15.11%
MKC
McCormick & Company
50.42
-24.56
-32.76%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.