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JM Smucker
(NYSE:SJM)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$136.00
▲(3.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/26/26
SJM scores in the upper-middle range primarily due to strong and improving cash generation and constructive earnings-call updates around deleveraging and key brand momentum, supported by a solid technical uptrend. The score is held back by weak/negative profitability with a negative P/E and an elevated leverage profile that makes execution and margin recovery critical.
Positive Factors
Strong and resilient cash generation
Substantial, consistently positive free cash flow provides funding for debt reduction, brand investment and shareholder returns. Its resilience during loss-making periods indicates meaningful working-capital discipline and operating cash conversion.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile profitability
Low operating profitability leaves limited protection against cost shocks and makes earnings quality dependent on execution, mix and productivity gains. Sustained margin recovery is needed to convert the company’s revenue and cash-flow scale into dependable returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong and resilient cash generation
Substantial, consistently positive free cash flow provides funding for debt reduction, brand investment and shareholder returns. Its resilience during loss-making periods indicates meaningful working-capital discipline and operating cash conversion.
Read all positive factors
JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Profit by Segment
Analyzes profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Analyzes profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.99B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)61.3
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth5.08%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees8,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding106,880,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,515,259
30 Day Avg. Volume1,466,927
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio9.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$142.43Price Target Upside8.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)10.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.93B
JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Co...
How the Company Makes Money
SJM primarily makes money by selling branded packaged goods to retailers (e.g., grocery, mass merchandisers, club stores, drug stores), pet specialty retailers, and e-commerce customers, with revenue recognized from product shipments/sales under c...
JM Smucker Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: several clear positives (tariff refund benefit, early achievement of leverage target, strong brand momentum in Uncrustables, Café Bustelo, and improvements in pet categories) alongside meaningful near-term challenges (mid-single-digit cost inflation, conservative coffee volume guidance, c-store traffic pressure impacting Sweet Baked Snacks, isolated brand weaknesses, and some near-term margin headwinds due to capacity start-up and marketing). Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, targeted reinvestment, and a prudent stance on pricing and volume assumptions.Positive Updates
Tariff Refund Benefit and Improved Leverage
Received a $0.84 per-share tariff refund benefit in fiscal Q1 and expect about a $0.60 benefit for the full year (net of incremental costs). Management is using a portion to reinvest in SG&A and preproduction expenses and the balance to pay down debt. The company targeted ~$500 million of debt paydown for the year and achieved its 3.0x leverage ratio in Q1 earlier than expected.
Negative Updates
Higher-Than-Expected Cost Inflation
Underlying COGS inflation running in mid-single digits and about ~100 basis points higher than initial expectations. Incremental pressure is driven largely by freight and some commodity/ingredient costs; this has been factored into full-year guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Tariff Refund Benefit and Improved Leverage
Received a $0.84 per-share tariff refund benefit in fiscal Q1 and expect about a $0.60 benefit for the full year (net of incremental costs). Management is using a portion to reinvest in SG&A and preproduction expenses and the balance to pay down debt. The company targeted ~$500 million of debt paydown for the year and achieved its 3.0x leverage ratio in Q1 earlier than expected.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated guidance noting they received a $0.84 tariff‑refund benefit in fiscal Q1 and now expect roughly a $0.60 net tariff‑refund benefit for the full year (with a portion being reinvested in SG&A — higher admin, incremental marketing and preproduction costs for the McCalla, AL facility — and the balance used to pay down debt); they plan to pay down about $500 million of debt this year and have already achieved a ~3.0x leverage ratio in Q1, announced a recent dividend increase and now have flexibility to contemplate share repurchases. For the year they’re modeling coffee volume down low single digits (pausing a list‑price cut and using trade/promotion to pass along some deflation), COGS inflation running mid‑single digits (about 100 bps higher than prior expectations, driven largely by freight plus some commodity/other ingredient cost increases), Uncrustables now expected to grow high single digits (total company/total venture), Frozen Handheld & Spreads margins may see a slight near‑term step back as preproduction spend increases, and Sweet Baked Snacks is expected to be down low single digits for the full year with the back half running flatter after lapping prior SKU rationalization.JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.16B | 9.05B | 8.73B | 8.18B | 8.53B | 8.00B |
| Gross Profit | 3.54B | 3.03B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 2.80B | 2.70B |
| EBITDA | 1.33B | 875.80M | -155.60M | 1.69B | 573.80M | 1.46B |
| Net Income | 229.50M | -138.70M | -1.23B | 744.00M | -91.30M | 631.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.20B | 16.22B | 17.56B | 20.27B | 14.99B | 16.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.20M | 58.60M | 69.90M | 62.00M | 1.14B | 169.90M |
| Total Debt | 6.90B | 7.09B | 7.76B | 8.55B | 4.42B | 4.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.45B | 10.68B | 11.48B | 12.58B | 7.70B | 7.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.75B | 5.54B | 6.08B | 7.69B | 7.29B | 8.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.16B | 816.60M | 642.90M | 717.00M | 718.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.91B | 1.47B | 1.21B | 1.23B | 1.19B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -146.70M | -258.80M | -100.30M | -3.96B | 262.60M | -355.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.76B | -1.23B | -1.10B | 2.14B | -964.60M | -944.50M |
JM Smucker Technical Analysis
Positive
130.90
Price Trends
116.32
Positive
107.59
Positive
104.19
Positive
Market Momentum
3.60
Negative
72.14
Negative
82.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 130.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.99, above the 50-day MA of 116.32, and above the 200-day MA of 104.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.
JM Smucker Risk Analysis
JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JM Smucker Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $14.81B | 9.06 | 25.58% | 3.78% | 9.54% | 108.44% | |
67 Neutral | $13.99B | 61.32 | -2.44% | 3.72% | 5.08% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $6.93B | 11.36 | 15.30% | 7.14% | -2.90% | 33.92% | |
61 Neutral | $21.43B | -237.88 | -0.99% | 6.77% | -5.45% | -104.44% | |
58 Neutral | $7.75B | -4.01 | -24.31% | 9.48% | -2.85% | -265.99% | |
57 Neutral | $13.05B | 33.77 | 5.86% | 4.61% | 0.73% | -54.64% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SJM
JM Smucker
132.34
26.20
24.69%
CPB
Campbell Soup
23.39
-6.63
-22.09%
CAG
Conagra Brands
16.09
-1.64
-9.23%
GIS
General Mills
41.55
-4.89
-10.53%
HRL
Hormel Foods
21.57
-2.60
-10.77%
MKC
McCormick & Company
55.33
-12.84
-18.83%
JM Smucker Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
JM Smucker Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
The J. M. Smucker Company held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders virtually on August 12, 2026, with 91,893,859 shares represented, constituting a quorum. Shareholders elected eleven directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 Annual Meeting,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.