GXO Logistics (GXO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 23.40%
• EPS Growth: -55.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 105,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 117,063,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,102,515
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,455,724
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $50.20
• Price Target Upside: 26.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

GXO Logistics scores a solid 76.4, driven by strong financial performance and optimistic future guidance despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company's strategic expansion into healthcare and technology sectors, along with effective cash flow management, supports its growth trajectory. However, the high P/E ratio and absence of a dividend yield may pose concerns regarding valuation.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

GXO reported 1Q adj. EPS of $0.29 beating the Street's $0.25 forecast, and adj. EBITDA of $163MM also handily beat estimates.

New Contracts

GXO delivered strong new contract wins and reaffirmed guidance.

Strategic Growth

GXO's pipeline diversification into aerospace and healthcare helps rebalance exposure to tariffs.

Negative Factors

Leadership Changes

Open questions center on a CEO replacement and the Wincanton approval.

Operational Costs

Margin visibility remains somewhat limited in the near term due to elevated operating costs and external volatility.

Regulatory Challenges

GXO has undergone several missteps over the past year, including a surprise CEO departure and an acquisition under CMA review that may require significant remedies.

GXO Logistics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide. The company provides warehousing and distribution, order fulfilment, e-commerce, and other supply chain services, as well as reverse logistics or returns management services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated in approximately 906 facilities. The company serves various customers in the e-commerce, omnichannel retail, consumer technology, food and beverage, industrial and manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods industries. GXO Logistics, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

GXO Logistics generates revenue through a variety of logistics and supply chain services. The company's primary revenue streams include warehousing and distribution services, which involve managing storage and inventory for clients in strategically located facilities. Additionally, GXO provides transportation management services, coordinating the movement of goods across different modes of transport to optimize delivery times and costs. The company also earns from value-added services such as order fulfillment, returns management, and supply chain consulting. Significant partnerships with major corporations and retailers enhance GXO's service offerings and expand its customer base, contributing to its earnings. By utilizing technology to streamline operations and improve efficiency, GXO is able to offer competitive pricing and attract a diverse clientele, further bolstering its revenue.

GXO Logistics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GXO Logistics exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, a solid equity position, and effective cash flow management. Despite increased debt levels, the company maintains a stable leverage ratio, balancing growth with financial prudence.

Income Statement

GXO Logistics has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory from $6.09 billion in 2019 to $11.71 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has also improved, highlighting enhanced efficiency in operations. Although the net profit margin has seen fluctuations, it remains positive, indicating profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, contributing to a robust financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a strong equity base, with stockholders' equity increasing over the years. The debt-to-equity ratio has been relatively stable, indicating balanced leverage. The equity ratio reflects a sound financial structure. However, the total debt has increased, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

GXO Logistics has shown a positive trend in operating cash flow, which supports its net income and investment activities. The free cash flow has fluctuated but remains positive, suggesting prudent capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating effective cash generation relative to profit.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.71B	9.78B	8.99B	7.94B	6.20B
	Gross Profit
1.86B	1.38B	1.22B	968.00M	703.00M
	EBIT
218.00M	318.00M	386.00M	277.00M	94.00M
	EBITDA
816.00M	680.00M	697.00M	589.00M	415.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
134.00M	229.00M	197.00M	153.00M	-22.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
413.00M	468.00M	495.00M	333.00M	328.00M
	Total Assets
11.27B	9.51B	9.22B	7.27B	6.55B
	Total Debt
5.18B	4.09B	4.22B	2.81B	2.10B
	Net Debt
4.76B	3.62B	3.72B	2.47B	1.78B
	Total Liabilities
8.23B	6.56B	6.54B	4.88B	3.60B
	Stockholders Equity
3.00B	2.91B	2.65B	2.35B	2.82B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
190.00M	284.00M	200.00M	205.00M	111.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
549.00M	558.00M	542.00M	455.00M	333.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.16B	-410.00M	-1.15B	-207.00M	-280.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
636.00M	-186.00M	787.00M	-241.00M	67.00M

GXO Logistics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.71
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.94, above the 50-day MA of 37.37, and below the 200-day MA of 47.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GXO.

GXO Logistics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	75 Outperform	$14.63B	18.56	37.70%	1.32%	24.07%	27.40%
GXO	74 Outperform	$4.42B	33.87	2.61%	―	23.40%	-55.55%
CHRW	70 Outperform	$10.49B	21.49	32.11%	2.82%	-0.22%	65.52%
JBHT	64 Neutral	$12.98B	24.26	13.97%	1.26%	-3.82%	-12.80%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.30B	11.84	5.23%	249.82%	4.06%	-10.21%
LSTR	63 Neutral	$4.60B	24.55	20.03%	1.03%	-9.13%	-25.11%
XPO	61 Neutral	$12.69B	33.14	26.24%	―	1.94%	60.91%

GXO Logistics Corporate Events

GXO Logistics Releases Q1 2025 Investor Presentation

On May 7, 2025, GXO Logistics released a slide presentation to be used in future investor presentations, detailing their first quarter 2025 results. The presentation includes non-GAAP financial measures to provide insights into the company’s ongoing business operations, emphasizing metrics like adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. These measures are intended to assist investors in analyzing trends and comparing performance across periods, although they are not directly comparable to GAAP measures. The release highlights the company’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value through effective capital deployment, despite challenges such as economic conditions and supply chain issues.

Spark’s Take on GXO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, GXO is a Neutral.

GXO Logistics scores a solid 68, driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including substantial revenue growth and strategic achievements. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the high valuation may constrain short-term gains. Despite these challenges, GXO’s strategic initiatives and market positioning suggest a favorable long-term outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on GXO stock, click here.

GXO Logistics Faces CMA Scrutiny Over Wincanton Deal

On February 19, 2025, the United Kingdom Competition and Markets Authority released an Interim Report on GXO Logistics’ acquisition of Wincanton plc. The report found no competition concerns for most of Wincanton’s business but noted potential competition issues regarding a small segment of sophisticated customers, representing less than 10% of Wincanton’s revenue. GXO Logistics disagrees with these provisional findings and plans to work with the CMA to achieve full clearance by the end of April.

GXO Logistics Releases 2024 Financial Measures Presentation

On February 12, 2025, GXO Logistics announced the release of a slide presentation for future investor events, detailing their non-GAAP financial measures for 2024. These measures, which include adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow conversion, aim to provide insights into GXO’s operating performance and financial health, excluding non-core activities. This transparency is expected to assist investors in evaluating trends and comparing results across periods, underlining GXO’s continuous effort to optimize its business operations and strengthen its market position.