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CH Robinson
(NASDAQ:CHRW)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$149.00
▲(3.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
CHRW scores as moderate overall, led by improving financial performance and constructive earnings-call execution/guidance despite a cyclical demand backdrop and notable legal risk. The score is held back by weak technical positioning (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and a relatively high P/E with only a modest dividend yield, while the RXO deal adds both strategic upside and added leverage/execution uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Productivity-driven margin expansion
Sustained productivity gains and higher shipments per employee indicate that Lean AI and workflow improvements are becoming embedded operating capabilities. These efficiencies can support durable margin expansion, improve scalability, and strengthen earnings resilience across freight-market cycles.
Negative Factors
Cyclical demand and uneven revenue trajectory
Weak freight demand can constrain shipment volumes and limit growth across brokerage and forwarding activities, while the company’s uneven revenue history shows sensitivity to transportation cycles. This makes sustained earnings growth more dependent on share gains, pricing, and productivity execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Productivity-driven margin expansion
Sustained productivity gains and higher shipments per employee indicate that Lean AI and workflow improvements are becoming embedded operating capabilities. These efficiencies can support durable margin expansion, improve scalability, and strengthen earnings resilience across freight-market cycles.
Read all positive factors
CH Robinson Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenues by Service Line
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Breaks down revenue by service line, offering insight into which services are most lucrative and how the company's business mix is evolving over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCH Robinson (CHRW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.44B
Dividend Yield1.77%
Average Volume (3M)1.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.8
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth-0.09%
EPS Growth19.50%
CountryUS
Employees11,599
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.31
Shares Outstanding178,734,450
10 Day Avg. Volume2,491,006
30 Day Avg. Volume1,724,292
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.29
Price to Book (P/B)10.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.19
P/FCF Ratio21.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$191.90Price Target Upside33.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)6.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$18.40B
CH Robinson Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. serves as a global provider of diverse freight transportation and logistics solutions, assisting companies across numerous industries. The organization's business operations are segmented into two key areas: North Ame...
How the Company Makes Money
C.H. Robinson primarily makes money by acting as an intermediary between shippers that need freight moved and transportation providers (carriers) that have capacity. The company typically quotes a price to the shipper for moving a load and separat...
CH Robinson Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational and financial progress—strong revenue and AGP growth, notable margin expansion, sustained market-share gains, and substantial productivity improvements driven by the company’s Lean AI strategy. These positives were balanced against macro and industry headwinds: weak freight demand, sharp spot-rate driven cost increases that compressed gross margin percent, working capital and cash-flow pressure, and a material legal/insurance risk from an adverse advisory verdict. Management emphasized disciplined revenue management, operating leverage and confidence in guidance despite those risks. Overall, the company presented a resilient performance story with clear execution levers to navigate current challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and AGP Growth
Total revenues increased 19.3% year-over-year and Adjusted Gross Profit (AGP) increased 6.5% year-over-year, demonstrating top-line strength despite a weak freight-demand environment.
Negative Updates
Weak Freight Demand Backdrop
Cass Freight Shipment Index was down 3.3% year-over-year in Q2 and down 4.7% in the first half of 2026, signaling continued trough-level freight demand that pressures volume growth.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and AGP Growth
Total revenues increased 19.3% year-over-year and Adjusted Gross Profit (AGP) increased 6.5% year-over-year, demonstrating top-line strength despite a weak freight-demand environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated and tightened 2026 guidance: they maintained the operating income target of $964M–$1.04B (noting the low end is achievable even if market volumes are −3% due to ~ $40M of self‑help), narrowed SG&A to $540M–$580M (down $10M), expect full‑year personnel expense of $1.25B–$1.35B (pushed toward the high end by higher incentive compensation with Q3 higher/Q4 lower), lowered capital expenditures to $65M–$75M (Q2 capex $18.2M), expect depreciation & amortization toward the low end of $95M–$105M, and reaffirmed a full‑year tax rate of 18%–20% (Q2 was 21.5%; Q3 similar/slightly higher; Q4 lower); they ended Q2 with ≈ $900M liquidity and net debt/EBITDA of 1.64x. Management cited supporting trends and results — Q2 revenue +19.3% YoY, AGP +6.5% YoY (AGP per business day Apr +9%/May +7%/Jun +3%), cash from operations $35.9M in Q2, Q2 personnel expense $338.5M (ex‑restructuring $330.5M) with average headcount down 10.8% YoY — and noted capital deployment in Q2 included $301.3M returned to shareholders (repurchases $226M, dividends $75.3M) and $79M allocated to acquisitions; they also now forecast ~34% YoY full‑year dry‑van spot rate inflation.CH Robinson Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 17.00B | 16.23B | 17.72B | 17.60B | 24.70B | 23.10B |
| Gross Profit | 1.72B | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.14B | 1.87B | 1.61B |
| EBITDA | 998.26M | 888.38M | 766.30M | 613.59M | 1.36B | 1.17B |
| Net Income | 633.33M | 587.08M | 465.69M | 325.13M | 940.52M | 844.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.84B | 5.06B | 5.30B | 5.23B | 5.95B | 7.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 154.59M | 160.87M | 145.76M | 145.52M | 217.48M | 257.41M |
| Total Debt | 1.97B | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.95B | 2.36B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.22B | 3.21B | 3.58B | 3.81B | 4.60B | 5.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.42B | 1.35B | 2.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 668.76M | 894.89M | 486.43M | 647.84M | 1.52B | 24.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 685.36M | 914.52M | 509.08M | 731.95M | 1.65B | 94.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -146.54M | -54.67M | -74.29M | -82.79M | -64.92M | -85.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -540.68M | -862.75M | -416.10M | -717.83M | -1.62B | 7.57M |
CH Robinson Technical Analysis
Negative
143.66
Price Trends
147.90
Negative
166.69
Negative
170.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.11
Positive
43.59
Neutral
28.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHRW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 143.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 148.59, below the 50-day MA of 147.90, and below the 200-day MA of 170.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CHRW.
CH Robinson Risk Analysis
CH Robinson disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CH Robinson reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CH Robinson Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $25.12B | 28.05 | 40.68% | 0.82% | 6.77% | 12.05% | |
67 Neutral | $1.58B | 28.62 | 3.19% | 1.94% | ― | ― | |
64 Neutral | $21.53B | 32.57 | 18.75% | 0.78% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
64 Neutral | $5.74B | 43.81 | 15.87% | 2.15% | 4.10% | -19.02% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $25.44B | 26.80 | 36.01% | 1.77% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
43 Neutral | $17.26B | 29.84 | 80.04% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
CHRW
CH Robinson
142.31
19.79
16.15%
EXPD
Expeditors International
193.24
80.45
71.33%
HUBG
Hub Group
25.76
-7.46
-22.46%
JBHT
JB Hunt
229.26
92.26
67.35%
LSTR
Landstar System
169.11
47.07
38.57%
FDXF
FedEx Freight Holding Company
115.47
-35.53
-23.53%
CH Robinson Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
CH Robinson Announces Merger Agreement to Acquire RXO
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On October 4, 2026, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. agreed to acquire RXO Inc. in a stock‑and‑cash merger valuing RXO at about $5.8 billion and creating a combined logistics company with an enterprise value above $25 billion. The boards ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
C.H. Robinson Faces Major Jury Verdict in Texas
Negative
Jul 24, 2026
On July 23, 2026, a jury in Dallas County, Texas issued an advisory verdict against C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. and two other defendants in a lawsuit stemming from a trucking accident involving an independent motor carrier, awarding $604 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.