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HF Sinclair Corporation
(NYSE:DINO)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$128.00
▲(37.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/28/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (TTM margin/ROE rebound and robust free cash flow) and a positive earnings-call backdrop (major YoY earnings growth, strong liquidity, and sizable shareholder returns). Valuation is supportive with a low P/E and a modest dividend. The main offset is mixed technical momentum (below the 20-day average with neutral-to-weak RSI/stochastic) alongside industry and operational volatility risks (turnarounds, cost pressures, renewables utilization, and management’s extended recovery timeline).
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for sustaining investment, growth projects, and shareholder distributions. This financial capacity can help HF Sinclair preserve strategic flexibility through refining cycles while reducing reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Refining Cyclicality
HF Sinclair’s cash generation has varied substantially across prior periods, including negative free cash flow in 2021 and weaker recent coverage. Because earnings depend heavily on refining margins and commodity conditions, strong TTM results may not remain consistent through a down-cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for sustaining investment, growth projects, and shareholder distributions. This financial capacity can help HF Sinclair preserve strategic flexibility through refining cycles while reducing reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
HF Sinclair Corporation Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
Breaks down where sales are generated across regions and retail markets, revealing geographic exposure to fuel demand, local price differentials, and regulatory or supply risks that can materially affect HF Sinclair’s top line and margins.
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The Fly
The FlyHF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.30B
Dividend Yield1.77%
Average Volume (3M)2.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth16.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,165
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.53
Shares Outstanding177,783,840
10 Day Avg. Volume1,908,039
30 Day Avg. Volume2,496,234
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio9.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$132.64Price Target Upside42.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)18.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.99B
HF Sinclair Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as a prominent independent energy enterprise, engaged in the production and commercialization of a diverse array of petroleum products. Its offerings include conventional fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fue...
How the Company Makes Money
HF Sinclair primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks, processing them in its refineries, and selling the resulting refined products at market-based prices. Its core earnings driver is the refining margin (often called the “cr...
HF Sinclair Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. HF Sinclair reported substantial year-over-year growth in adjusted net income and EBITDA, strong refining performance, improved renewables and lubricants results, significant cash generation, robust liquidity, and continued shareholder returns. Management also highlighted progress on organic growth projects, operational improvements, and the lubricants separation. The principal challenges were lower midstream EBITDA, lower refining throughput during the El Dorado turnaround, Mississauga-related costs, higher refining operating expenses, renewable-diesel utilization below its stated sweet spot, and ongoing geopolitical and supply constraints. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Companywide Earnings Growth
Third-quarter net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders was $2 billion, or $11.38 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $2.1 billion, or $11.75 per diluted share, compared with $459 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $3 billion compared with $870 million in the prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
Midstream EBITDA Declined Year Over Year
Midstream EBITDA was $101 million in the third quarter compared with $114 million in the same period of 2025.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Companywide Earnings Growth
Third-quarter net income attributable to HF Sinclair shareholders was $2 billion, or $11.38 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $2.1 billion, or $11.75 per diluted share, compared with $459 million, or $2.44 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $3 billion compared with $870 million in the prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full-year 2026, HF Sinclair now expects to spend approximately $725 million on sustaining capital and turnarounds and $150 million in growth capital; in the fourth quarter of 26, it expects to run 560 thousand to 600 thousand barrels per day of crude oil, and it expects to end the year at its target payout ratio of 50%. Westline Connect is expected to reach a final investment decision in the first quarter of 2027, increase capacity by approximately 35 thousand barrels per day, and be targeted to be online in 2029; turnaround and sustaining CapEx is expected to remain range bound to the cycle, with no further guidance on 2027 CapEx until FID. The company is targeting completion of the lubes spin and finalization of the Mississauga shutdown in the middle of next year, while the separation is still on track for the second quarter of 27 or second half of 27 and the standalone company is targeted to be fully operational by early Q3. The company continues to believe that full recovery is unlikely to occur within the broader refining assets and therefore their products until sometime in 2028, expects WCS differentials to stay wider than they have throughout the near term, at least through 2027, and said renewable diesel utilization above 70% is the target utilization.HF Sinclair Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 31.23B | 26.87B | 28.58B | 31.96B | 38.20B | 18.39B |
| Gross Profit | 3.99B | 1.39B | 3.21B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 2.63B |
| EBITDA | 3.63B | 1.86B | 1.22B | 3.11B | 4.77B | 1.42B |
| Net Income | 1.92B | 579.00M | 177.00M | 1.59B | 2.92B | 558.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.99B | 16.73B | 16.64B | 17.72B | 18.35B | 12.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.26B | 978.00M | 800.00M | 1.35B | 1.67B | 234.44M |
| Total Debt | 2.86B | 3.23B | 3.10B | 3.22B | 3.72B | 3.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.64B | 7.48B | 7.30B | 7.48B | 8.33B | 6.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.29B | 9.18B | 9.28B | 10.17B | 9.24B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.55B | 866.00M | 640.00M | 1.91B | 3.25B | -406.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.78B | 1.31B | 1.11B | 2.30B | 3.78B | 406.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.00M | -516.00M | -468.00M | -371.32M | -774.49M | -1.33B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -792.00M | -631.00M | -1.18B | -2.24B | -1.56B | -211.80M |
HF Sinclair Corporation Technical Analysis
Neutral
93.24
Price Trends
110.76
Positive
94.99
Positive
76.92
Positive
Market Momentum
3.48
Positive
44.67
Neutral
26.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DINO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 93.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.42, below the 50-day MA of 110.76, and above the 200-day MA of 76.92, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for DINO.
HF Sinclair Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $8.73B | 6.41 | 24.08% | 1.49% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $20.30B | 10.85 | 19.86% | 1.77% | 16.26% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $122.43B | 15.01 | 48.71% | 0.92% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
73 Outperform | $107.15B | 15.23 | 24.45% | 1.87% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
73 Outperform | $111.53B | 8.71 | 49.94% | 1.22% | 24.82% | 826.42% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
51 Neutral | $5.77B | 83.23 | 10.48% | 0.99% | 17.88% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.