PBF Energy (PBF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.46B
• Dividend Yield: 4.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -16.30%
• EPS Growth: -160.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,855
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -3.09
• Shares Outstanding: 115,647,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,944,418
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,196,108
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -4.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.54
• 1Y Price Target: $19.10
• Price Target Upside: -5.12% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

PBF Energy's overall stock score is influenced by significant financial challenges, especially in profitability and cash flow, despite some technical strength and positive corporate developments. The company's ability to address these financial and operational issues will be crucial for future performance. The technical analysis suggests upward momentum, but valuation and earnings call details highlight underlying risks.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Management

Several cash flow items were better than expected, including the 2025 capex guide midpoint coming in significantly lower than consensus due to smaller discretionary projects being cut.

Liquidity and Insurance Proceeds

The company maintains its dividend and has disclosed substantial initial insurance proceeds, indicating confidence in its current liquidity.

Refining Fundamentals

PBF is upgraded to Buy due to a strong improvement in refining fundamentals.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The forecast for negative free cash flow in a normalized future year makes the bull case for the stock challenging.

Operational Challenges

The unfortunate fire at Martinez has delayed the planned turnaround and increases the uncertainty around near-term operating and financial performance.

Operational Reliability

There is an expectation that there will not be a material improvement in PBF West Coast operational reliability, with risks of downtime outweighing closure-related surplus market margin in PADD5.

PBF Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PBF Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates in two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It also offers various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated six oil refineries and related assets. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

PBF Energy generates revenue primarily through the refining and sale of petroleum products. The company purchases crude oil and other feedstocks, which are then processed in its refineries to produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, lubricants, and other specialty products. Revenue is driven by the volume of products sold, the pricing of refined products, and refining margins, which reflect the difference between the cost of crude oil and the market price of refined products. The company also earns income from its logistics operations, which transport and store crude oil and finished products. Strategic partnerships and contracts with suppliers and distributors play a crucial role in optimizing supply chain efficiency and expanding market reach, contributing to PBF Energy's earnings.

PBF Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

PBF Energy faces significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow, with negative profit margins and cash flow ratios. The balance sheet shows some stability but hints at financial stress due to recent losses.

Income Statement

PBF Energy's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) income statement shows challenges in profitability with a negative gross profit margin of -3.2% and a net profit margin of -3.3%. Revenue has declined by 4.8% compared to the previous year, indicating a downward trend. The EBIT margin is also negative at -4.3%, suggesting operational inefficiencies. EBITDA margin is negative at -2.6%, further highlighting profitability concerns.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, indicating a balanced leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is negative at -20.4%, reflecting recent losses. The equity ratio stands at 39.3%, showing a reasonable level of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet indicates stability but hints at financial stress due to recent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate and an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61, indicating cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is -0.85, highlighting challenges in converting profit to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects liquidity issues and cash management difficulties.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
31.54B	33.12B	38.32B	46.83B	27.25B	15.12B
	Gross Profit
-1.01B	-372.20M	2.40B	4.68B	887.20M	-1.63B
	EBIT
-1.36B	-699.00M	2.95B	4.15B	597.20M	-1.42B
	EBITDA
-740.50M	-17.60M	3.52B	4.31B	1.11B	-510.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.04B	-533.80M	2.14B	2.88B	315.50M	-1.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.44B	536.10M	1.78B	2.20B	1.34B	1.61B
	Total Assets
13.81B	12.70B	14.39B	13.55B	11.64B	10.50B
	Total Debt
2.10B	2.31B	2.04B	2.64B	5.01B	5.58B
	Net Debt
654.50M	1.78B	260.70M	438.30M	3.67B	3.97B
	Total Liabilities
7.21B	7.02B	7.76B	8.49B	9.11B	8.30B
	Stockholders Equity
6.46B	5.54B	6.49B	5.06B	2.53B	2.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-996.10M	-347.50M	678.90M	4.14B	228.20M	-827.80M
	Operating Cash Flow
-633.50M	43.40M	1.34B	4.77B	477.30M	-631.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-974.60M	-1.04B	-338.60M	-1.01B	-388.50M	-1.03B
	Financing Cash Flow
-171.90M	-250.70M	-1.42B	-2.90B	-356.80M	2.45B

PBF Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PBF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.20, above the 50-day MA of 18.30, and below the 200-day MA of 26.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PBF.

PBF Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	72 Outperform	$6.85B	35.13	-1.49%	5.53%	-11.17%	-109.60%
MPC	72 Outperform	$49.85B	22.80	12.37%	2.15%	-6.39%	-64.50%
PSX	69 Neutral	$49.78B	27.86	6.48%	3.80%	-7.61%	-66.18%
VLO	68 Neutral	$42.07B	47.36	3.73%	3.28%	-8.44%	-85.95%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.14B	3.33	-3.45%	5.75%	0.66%	-50.76%
PBF	55 Neutral	$2.46B	―	-18.01%	4.94%	-16.30%	-160.78%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.13B	―	-151.69%	5.45%	-29.23%	-931.43%

PBF Energy Corporate Events

PBF Energy Announces Leadership Transition in 2025

On March 10, 2025, PBF Energy announced the transition of Thomas J. Nimbley from Executive Chairman to non-executive Chairman of the Board, effective July 1, 2025, following his retirement from the executive role on June 30, 2025. Nimbley, who has been pivotal in the company’s growth from a start-up to a major independent refiner, will continue to serve on the Board, assuming his re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. This transition reflects PBF Energy’s strategic leadership continuity and acknowledges Nimbley’s significant contributions to the company’s expansion and market positioning.