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CVR Energy
(NYSE:CVI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(55.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak/volatile profitability and high leverage in the financials, plus a stretched valuation (P/E 64.49). These are partly offset by strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and an earnings call that emphasized improved EBITDA/cash generation and strong liquidity, though meaningful RIN/RFS and hedging/regulatory risks remain.
Positive Factors
Strong operating reliability
High utilization across both refining and fertilizer operations indicates strong asset reliability and effective execution. Sustained throughput improves fixed-cost absorption, supports product availability, and gives CVR a stronger base for capturing market margins over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and thin equity cushion
High leverage combined with a shrinking equity base reduces balance-sheet flexibility and leaves less protection against weaker refining or fertilizer conditions. It can also constrain capital allocation, increase the importance of debt reduction, and make earnings volatility more consequential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating reliability
High utilization across both refining and fertilizer operations indicates strong asset reliability and effective execution. Sustained throughput improves fixed-cost absorption, supports product availability, and gives CVR a stronger base for capturing market margins over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
CVR Energy (CVI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.83B
Dividend Yield0.98%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)84.1
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth17.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,532
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding100,530,600
10 Day Avg. Volume933,596
30 Day Avg. Volume1,096,430
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)3.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
P/FCF Ratio-62.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.75Price Target Upside23.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.93B
CVR Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CVR Energy, Inc., a diversified company, operates through its subsidiaries primarily focusing on petroleum refining and the production of nitrogen fertilizers within the United States. Its business is organized into two distinct divisions: Petrole...
How the Company Makes Money
CVR Energy primarily makes money by buying crude oil and other feedstocks, processing them into higher-value refined products, and selling those products into wholesale channels. The core revenue driver is the “crack spread” (the margin between th...
CVR Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational execution, marked improvements in segment adjusted EBITDA, robust cash generation and ample liquidity, alongside proactive capital allocation and deleveraging targets. Material headwinds include sharply higher RIN/RFS costs and an unfavorable RFS liability, sizable realized hedging losses, and near-term fertilizer downtime and associated costs. Management expresses confidence in near-term market conditions and the company's ability to convert strong margins into deleveraging and shareholder value, but regulatory uncertainty (EPA decisions) and hedging impacts present meaningful risks to near-term GAAP earnings and margin capture.Positive Updates
High Refinery and Ammonia Utilization
Crude utilization of ~98% of nameplate capacity and ammonia plant utilization of 99% in Q2 2026, indicating strong operational reliability and throughput performance.
Negative Updates
RIN/RFS Cost Spike and Liability
RIN price rose over 125% YoY to average nearly $14 per barrel in Q2 2026. RIN expense (excluding change in RFS liability) was $216 million or $11.16/bbl, which negatively impacted the capture rate by ~25%. Estimated accrued RFS obligation was $408 million at June 30 with a $169 million RIN mark-to-market at an average of $2.41.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
High Refinery and Ammonia Utilization
Crude utilization of ~98% of nameplate capacity and ammonia plant utilization of 99% in Q2 2026, indicating strong operational reliability and throughput performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided Petroleum throughput of roughly 205,000–220,000 bpd with operating expenses of $110–$120 million and petroleum capital spending of $41–$50 million; for the Fertilizer segment it expects ammonia utilization of 75%–80% (impacted by a late‑August East Dubuque turnaround), direct operating expenses excluding inventory/turnaround of $57–$62 million, turnaround costs of $30–$35 million and fertilizer capex of $40–$49 million. Full‑year 2026 consolidated capex was estimated at $215–$240 million; liquidity at June 30 was about $1.1 billion (including roughly $600 million cash and $540 million ABL availability) with consolidated cash of $737 million and a gross leverage target of $1.0 billion (excluding CVR Partners). Hedge exposure for Q3 is ~2.7 million barrels (notional ≈ $102 million), total open crack‑spread positions ≈ 8.2 million barrels, ~4.6 million barrels of diesel and 0.4 million barrels of gasoline hedged for the remainder of 2026 and ~3.2 million barrels of diesel hedged in 2027. Management also reiterated ratable RIN purchasing (planning to buy 50% of Wynnewood’s obligation), noted an accrued RFS obligation of $408 million at June 30 and Q2 RIN pricing near $14/ bbl; quarter‑to‑date Group‑3 2‑1‑1 cracks averaged $58.70/ bbl and prompt fertilizer prices were $650–$700/ton for ammonia and $325–$350/ton for UAN.CVR Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.47B | 7.16B | 7.61B | 9.25B | 10.90B | 7.24B |
| Gross Profit | 288.00M | 315.00M | 197.00M | 1.27B | 1.12B | 209.00M |
| EBITDA | 744.00M | 588.00M | 394.00M | 1.44B | 1.17B | 462.00M |
| Net Income | 69.00M | 27.00M | 7.00M | 769.00M | 463.00M | 25.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.08B | 3.79B | 4.26B | 4.71B | 4.12B | 3.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 737.00M | 511.00M | 987.00M | 581.00M | 510.00M | 510.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.80B | 1.83B | 1.94B | 2.20B | 1.61B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.33B | 2.90B | 3.38B | 3.67B | 3.33B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 525.00M | 730.00M | 703.00M | 847.00M | 531.00M | 553.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 346.00M | -41.00M | 172.00M | 686.00M | 693.00M | 147.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 534.00M | 144.00M | 404.00M | 948.00M | 967.00M | 396.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -181.00M | -362.00M | -121.00M | -239.00M | -271.00M | -238.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -212.00M | -258.00M | -482.00M | -40.00M | -696.00M | -315.00M |
CVR Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
37.89
Price Trends
44.60
Positive
38.11
Positive
32.95
Positive
Market Momentum
3.65
Negative
73.63
Negative
84.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.62, below the 50-day MA of 44.60, and above the 200-day MA of 32.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVI.
CVR Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $21.57B | 11.52 | 19.86% | 1.67% | 16.26% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $124.89B | 17.98 | 29.94% | 1.09% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
73 Outperform | $9.99B | 7.33 | 24.08% | 1.31% | 13.54% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $4.10B | 4.72 | 57.75% | ― | 13.19% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $4.56B | 20.41 | 95.27% | 1.37% | 11.40% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $5.83B | 84.09 | 10.48% | 0.98% | 17.88% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
CVI
CVR Energy
58.02
22.92
65.29%
DK
Delek US Holdings
74.51
41.17
123.47%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
121.30
70.42
138.40%
VLO
Valero Energy
433.75
275.69
174.42%
PBF
PBF Energy
84.27
55.90
197.03%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
81.89
46.23
129.64%
CVR Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
CVR Energy Updates Investor Presentation on Strategic Priorities
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Beginning September 8, 2026, CVR Energy will use a refreshed investor presentation in meetings with current and potential investors and analysts, highlighting its refining and fertilizer operations and strategic priorities. The materials, furnishe...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
CVR Energy Posts Strong Q2 Results, Declares Dividend
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
CVR Energy reported second quarter 2026 results on July 29, showing a sharp year-on-year improvement despite a small net loss attributable to stockholders of $3 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $0.34 per diluted share....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.