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Delek US Holdings (DK) AI Stock Analysis

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DK

Delek US Holdings

(NYSE:DK)

Select Model
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:$67.00▲(2.35% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/30/26

DK scores as neutral overall, driven by improving operating results and strong recent free cash flow, partially offset by elevated balance-sheet risk. Near-term technical signals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation and shareholder returns are moderate. The latest earnings call and corporate actions support the cash-flow outlook, but regulatory (RFS/RVO) and market volatility remain meaningful risks.

Positive Factors
Strong Cash GenerationRecent cash generation provides Delek with internal funding for debt reduction, capital investment, and shareholder returns. Although historical conversion has been volatile, the latest improvement demonstrates meaningful cash-producing capacity that can support financial resilience over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Weak Equity BaseHigh and unstable leverage reduces Delek’s financial flexibility and leaves more cash flow committed to debt-related obligations. A thin or unstable equity base and negative shareholder returns may constrain investment choices and increase vulnerability when refining conditions weaken.

Delek US Holdings (DK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-50%-25%0%25%50%75%100%125%DK+61.54%SPY+15.63%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$4.01B
Dividend Yield
1.56%
Average Volume (3M)
2.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
17.9
Beta (1Y)
0.46
Revenue Growth
11.40%
EPS Growth
―
Country
US
Employees
1,902
Sector
Energy
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Delek US Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Delek US Holdings, Inc. is an integrated downstream energy corporation operating within the United States. Its operations are divided into three core segments: Refining, Logistics, and Retail. The Refining segment processes crude oil and other raw ma...

How the Company Makes Money

Delek US Holdings makes money primarily by converting crude oil and other feedstocks into higher-value refined products and selling those products, and by earning fees and margins from midstream/logistics and marketing activities. 1) Refining (larges...

Delek US Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-1.12%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized strong operational execution, record results in logistics, meaningful adjusted earnings and clear progress on enterprise optimization and DKL separation — all supported by capital returns and debt reduction. Offsetting risks include commodity and geopolitical-driven market volatility, RFS/RVO uncertainty and a sizable working capital outflow that reduced operating cash flow. Management conveyed confidence in free cash flow generation and continued capital discipline.

Positive Updates

Strong Adjusted Earnings and EBITDA
Reported GAAP net income of ~$170 million ($2.71/share) and adjusted net income of ~$344 million ($5.48/share). Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was ~$639 million (note: excluding the 50% RVO adjustment adjusted EBITDA was ~$490 million).

Negative Updates

Market Volatility and Geopolitical Impact
Events in the Middle East and Eastern Europe created steep liquidation, wide swings in crude differentials and transportation fuel shortages. Management highlighted ongoing volatility which complicates margin capture and supply dynamics.

Company Guidance

For Q3 2026 Delek guided system throughput of 296,000–316,000 bpd (Tyler 72,000–77,000 bpd; El Dorado 78,000–83,000 bpd; Big Spring 68,000–73,000 bpd; Krotz Springs 78,000–83,000 bpd), operating expenses of $220–$230 million, G&A of $50–$55 million, D&A of $110–$120 million, and net interest expense of $75–$85 million (DK standalone $28–$33 million; DKL $47–$52 million). Management reaffirmed DKL 2026 EBITDA guidance of $520–$560 million and expects pro‑forma DKL third‑party EBITDA to exceed 80%; the Enterprise Optimization Plan targets at least $220 million of annual run‑rate cash flow (EOP contributed about $60 million in Q2), and management reiterated a mid‑cycle free cash flow outlook of roughly $650–$700 million including DKL distributions (implying ~15–20% FCF yield).

Delek US Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show a near-term rebound led by strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.28B and free cash flow ~$864M, with strong FCF growth), but the balance sheet is a material risk factor given very elevated/unstable leverage metrics and negative ROE. Profitability has improved with revenue up ~12.3% TTM, yet margins and earnings remain volatile for a cyclical refiner.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

28Negative

Cash Flow

72Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.06B10.72B11.85B16.92B19.80B10.65B
Gross Profit1.03B568.30M-67.90M1.04B736.50M225.50M
EBITDA1.03B782.00M-18.50M664.00M792.60M264.00M
Net Income224.50M-22.80M-560.40M19.80M257.10M-128.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.55B6.85B6.67B7.17B8.19B6.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments628.60M625.80M735.60M821.80M841.30M856.50M
Total Debt3.26B3.35B2.86B2.74B3.23B2.42B
Total Liabilities6.89B6.30B6.09B6.21B7.12B5.80B
Stockholders Equity422.70M286.50M312.80M845.50M943.60M894.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow684.90M22.00M-497.40M616.80M139.50M148.20M
Operating Cash Flow1.27B551.50M-66.80M1.01B425.30M371.40M
Investing Cash Flow-590.40M-713.60M-241.50M-408.00M-931.60M-178.40M
Financing Cash Flow-670.90M52.30M221.70M-624.70M491.10M-124.00M

Delek US Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price65.46

Price Trends

50DMA74.01Negative
100DMA66.38Negative
200DMA53.40Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-1.25Positive
RSI37.24Neutral
STOCH13.89Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 65.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.65, below the 50-day MA of 74.01, and above the 200-day MA of 53.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DK.

Delek US Holdings Risk Analysis

Delek US Holdings disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Delek US Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

  • Finance & Corporate21
  • Tech & Innovation2
  • Legal & Regulatory7
  • Production14
  • Ability to Sell8
  • Macro & Political5
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.The stockholder rights plan adopted by our Board may impair an attempt to acquire control of Delek.Q2, 2020
2.The periodic price adjustment settlements on the J. Aron Supply and Offtake Agreement may affect our liquidity position.Q2, 2020
3.The current COVID-19 Pandemic and certain developments in the global oil markets have had, and may continue to have, an adverse impact on our business, our future results of operations and our overall financial performance.Q2, 2020

Delek US Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

DK against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
DINODINO82Outperform$19.43B5.2934.53%1.94%29.47%848.69%
PARRPARR76Outperform$3.57B3.5855.18%―29.06%298.17%
MPCMPC74Outperform$120.01B7.6776.65%1.02%31.77%446.09%
PBFPBF72Outperform$9.44B3.1943.05%1.51%31.51%―
CVICVI66Neutral$4.89B16.2936.83%1.33%34.41%60.60%
Sector *65Neutral$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
DKDK55Neutral$4.34B17.9395.27%1.56%11.40%―

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%50%100%150%DKCVIDINOMPCPBFPARRDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
DK and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DKDelek US65.4627.1170.69%
CVICVR Energy Inc43.016.6618.31%
DINOHF Sinclair Corporation104.5752.63101.35%
MPCMarathon Petroleum392.68203.13107.16%
PBFPBF Energy72.6236.72102.26%
PARRPar Pacific Holdings69.6628.9170.94%

Delek US Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Delek US Holdings Boosts Quarterly Dividend to Shareholders

Positive
Oct 29, 2026

On October 29, 2026, Delek US Holdings, Inc. announced that its board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, representing an increase of roughly 18% from the prior $0.255 payout. The dividend will be paid on November 18, 2026, to sharehold...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

Delek US Completes Convertible Notes Offering to Refinance Debt

Positive
Sep 29, 2026

On September 29, 2026, Delek US Holdings completed a private offering of $460 million of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031, fully guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by subsidiaries that back its term loan and asset-based revolving credit fa...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026