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Marathon Petroleum
(NYSE:MPC)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$495.00
▲(39.48% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/08/26
The score is driven primarily by strong TTM financial performance—especially robust free cash flow—supported by a clearly bullish technical trend and a positive earnings-call outlook. The main offsets are elevated leverage for a cyclical business, overbought technical readings that increase pullback risk, and only moderate valuation support given the low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
MPC’s substantial operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for maintenance, growth investment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Although refining cash flow is cyclical, the current generation level gives the company meaningful financial flexibility through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt is high relative to equity for a cyclical refiner, increasing financial sensitivity when refining margins or utilization weaken. Greater leverage can constrain capital allocation, raise refinancing exposure, and reduce resilience if cash generation falls from current elevated levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
MPC’s substantial operating and free cash flow provides internal funding for maintenance, growth investment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Although refining cash flow is cyclical, the current generation level gives the company meaningful financial flexibility through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Marathon Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Highlights profitability across different business areas, indicating which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMarathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$131.42B
Dividend Yield0.86%
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth15.19%
EPS Growth331.26%
CountryUS
Employees18,500
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)29.05
Shares Outstanding280,824,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,917,060
30 Day Avg. Volume2,646,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.39
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio10.41
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$457.12Price Target Upside28.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)65.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$180.65B
Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and M...
How the Company Makes Money
MPC makes money primarily by refining crude oil into higher-value refined products and selling those products into wholesale and branded channels. Its core earnings driver is the refining margin (often described as the “crack spread”)—the differen...
Marathon Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with record financial performance, high refining margin capture, very low unplanned downtime, strong demand, midstream growth, renewable diesel improvement, and substantial shareholder returns. Management also identified specific near-term headwinds, including third-quarter turnarounds, secondary-product weakness, moderating product margins, market volatility, working-capital reversals, West Coast import constraints, and renewable-fuel policy challenges, but these did not outweigh the favorable results and outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Financial Performance
MPC delivered second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 billion and earnings per share of $17.73. Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately $5.2 billion year over year, primarily driven by Refining and Marketing. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital changes, was $6.6 billion.
Negative Updates
Third-Quarter Turnaround Headwind
MPC projects approximately $290 million of turnaround expenses in the third quarter. Activity focused mainly on conversion units in the Gulf Coast and MidCon regions is expected to limit the company's ability to upgrade certain products and create a headwind to capture. Third-quarter crude throughput is projected at 2.8 million bpd, or 94% utilization.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Financial Performance
MPC delivered second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $8.5 billion and earnings per share of $17.73. Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately $5.2 billion year over year, primarily driven by Refining and Marketing. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital changes, was $6.6 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the third quarter, MPC is projecting crude throughput volumes of 2.8 million bpd, representing utilization of 94%, with turnaround expenses projected to be approximately $290 million; activity mainly focused on conversion units in the Gulf Coast and MidCon regions is expected to limit the ability to upgrade certain products and create a headwind to capture. MPC expects to remain in an enhanced mid-cycle environment through the end of the year and into 2027, while renewable diesel is expected to have a constructive environment through the remainder of the year. MPLX increased its 2026 capital growth spending outlook by $500 million to $2.9 billion, is on track to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026, weighted towards the second half of the year, and is positioned for strong adjusted EBITDA growth in 2027; these investments are expected to support 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026 and 2027. Blackcomb is expected to achieve full commercial service in the fourth quarter, total processing capacity is 8.1 billion cu ft per day, de-ethanization capacity is over 800,000 bpd day, and sour gas treating capacity is expected to expand to over 400 million cu ft per day by the end of the year.Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 153.94B | 132.70B | 138.86B | 148.38B | 177.45B | 119.98B |
| Gross Profit | 17.89B | 10.00B | 9.29B | 16.51B | 22.57B | 6.61B |
| EBITDA | 17.45B | 11.68B | 10.60B | 18.56B | 24.88B | 7.45B |
| Net Income | 8.55B | 4.05B | 3.44B | 9.68B | 14.52B | 9.74B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.31B | 85.56B | 78.86B | 85.99B | 89.90B | 85.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.77B | 3.67B | 3.21B | 10.22B | 11.77B | 10.84B |
| Total Debt | 34.29B | 34.36B | 28.76B | 28.50B | 27.91B | 26.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 68.59B | 61.47B | 54.35B | 54.59B | 54.82B | 51.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.08B | 17.31B | 17.75B | 24.40B | 27.71B | 26.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.90B | 4.77B | 6.13B | 12.23B | 13.94B | 2.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.13B | 8.25B | 8.66B | 14.12B | 16.36B | 4.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.51B | -6.27B | 1.53B | -3.10B | 623.00M | 14.80B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.52B | -1.52B | -12.43B | -14.21B | -13.65B | -14.42B |
Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
354.88
Price Trends
407.20
Positive
345.28
Positive
281.35
Positive
Market Momentum
21.16
Positive
60.97
Neutral
41.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 354.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 444.55, below the 50-day MA of 407.20, and above the 200-day MA of 281.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 21.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.
Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $22.28B | 11.92 | 19.86% | 1.61% | 16.26% | ― | |
77 Outperform | $124.79B | 18.11 | 49.94% | 1.08% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
75 Outperform | $116.13B | 16.45 | 24.45% | 1.73% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
75 Outperform | $9.67B | 7.10 | 24.08% | 1.35% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $131.42B | 16.11 | 48.71% | 0.86% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
74 Outperform | $15.04B | 14.72 | 18.17% | 5.23% | 83.34% | 123.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
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137.97%
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SUN
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44.57%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.