Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $48.81B
• Dividend Yield: 2.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: -6.39%
• EPS Growth: -64.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 307,213,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,532,468
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,484,609
• PEG Ratio: -0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.39
• 1Y Price Target: $161.33
• Price Target Upside: 1.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲( 9.51% Upside)

Marathon Petroleum's overall score reflects a solid financial foundation and positive technical indicators, with the stock showing potential for upward movement. Despite a high valuation and mixed earnings results, the company's strategic investments and midstream growth position it well for future competitiveness. Challenges in revenue growth and the renewable diesel segment, along with a recent net loss, underscore the importance of sustaining operational efficiency and cash generation.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The earnings beat was largely driven by higher Refining throughput and margin capture, while Midstream earnings also outperformed.

Strategic Investments

MPC's investment in modernizing the LA refinery's utility system is aimed at improving reliability and energy efficiency, which is seen as a strategic move while competitors shut down refineries.

Negative Factors

Operational Risks

Key risks include business and operational risks such as disruption of crude supplies, failure of transportation infrastructure, energy price volatility, extreme weather conditions and operational accidents, and legal and regulatory risks such as changes in requirements for GHG emissions and environmental protection.

Refining Segment Challenges

Elevated turnaround activity is impacting utilization and weighing on capture rates in the refining segment.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum primarily generates revenue through its refining and marketing operations, where it processes crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company also operates a vast network of retail outlets under the Speedway brand, contributing to its earnings by selling fuel and convenience store merchandise directly to consumers. Additionally, MPC's midstream segment, mainly through its subsidiary MPLX LP, provides transportation and logistics services, including the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and crude oil. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors, alongside its strategic infrastructure investments, bolster its capacity to efficiently deliver energy products, thus enhancing profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Marathon Petroleum has shown resilience in profitability, managing debt levels effectively. The company faces challenges with revenue decline and incomplete data on certain metrics. Improvements in cash flow and revenue growth are vital for future stability.

Income Statement

Marathon Petroleum has demonstrated strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and EBIT margin despite fluctuations in total revenue. The company's net profit margin has shown recovery from negative results in 2020 to positive figures in subsequent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue over the years, especially from 2022 to 2023, which could be a concern moving forward.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a positive equity ratio and a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating effective debt management over time. Return on equity has improved significantly, especially post-2020, reflecting better utilization of shareholder equity. However, some years show zero or missing values for total assets and liabilities, which may affect complete assessment.

Cash Flow

The cash flow performance has been mixed. While operating cash flow has been positive, free cash flow has shown fluctuations, with a notable growth in 2022. The lack of data for 2024 poses challenges in assessing current cash flow health. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable for some periods due to missing free cash flow data.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
138.86B	149.35B	178.24B	120.45B	69.90B
	Gross Profit
9.29B	20.78B	26.57B	10.44B	4.16B
	EBIT
5.25B	14.51B	19.75B	3.76B	-2.60B
	EBITDA
10.60B	18.65B	22.96B	7.42B	-8.90B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	1.29B	-11.03B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B	555.00M
	Total Assets
78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B	85.16B
	Total Debt
28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B	33.09B
	Net Debt
25.55B	23.06B	19.28B	21.61B	32.54B
	Total Liabilities
54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B	54.94B
	Stockholders Equity
17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B	22.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B	-368.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B	2.42B
	Investing Cash Flow
1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B	-3.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B	-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 158.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.08, above the 50-day MA of 141.49, and above the 200-day MA of 150.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OXY	75 Outperform	$40.43B	16.63	9.43%	2.19%	1.35%	-33.30%
FANG	73 Outperform	$40.42B	8.46	14.26%	4.55%	47.89%	-7.87%
MPC	72 Outperform	$48.81B	22.32	12.37%	2.21%	-6.39%	-64.50%
TRGP	72 Outperform	$35.13B	29.75	46.37%	2.01%	6.05%	11.64%
PSX	69 Neutral	$49.26B	27.57	6.48%	4.12%	-7.61%	-66.18%
VLO	68 Neutral	$41.41B	46.61	3.73%	3.28%	-8.44%	-85.95%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.04B	3.12	-3.45%	5.79%	0.62%	-50.55%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.