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Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
:MPC

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

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Marathon Petroleum

(NYSE:MPC)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$174.00
â–²( 9.51% Upside)
Marathon Petroleum's overall score reflects a solid financial foundation and positive technical indicators, with the stock showing potential for upward movement. Despite a high valuation and mixed earnings results, the company's strategic investments and midstream growth position it well for future competitiveness. Challenges in revenue growth and the renewable diesel segment, along with a recent net loss, underscore the importance of sustaining operational efficiency and cash generation.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The earnings beat was largely driven by higher Refining throughput and margin capture, while Midstream earnings also outperformed.
Strategic Investments
MPC's investment in modernizing the LA refinery's utility system is aimed at improving reliability and energy efficiency, which is seen as a strategic move while competitors shut down refineries.
Negative Factors
Operational Risks
Key risks include business and operational risks such as disruption of crude supplies, failure of transportation infrastructure, energy price volatility, extreme weather conditions and operational accidents, and legal and regulatory risks such as changes in requirements for GHG emissions and environmental protection.
Refining Segment Challenges
Elevated turnaround activity is impacting utilization and weighing on capture rates in the refining segment.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMarathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyMarathon Petroleum primarily generates revenue through its refining and marketing operations, where it processes crude oil into various refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The company also operates a vast network of retail outlets under the Speedway brand, contributing to its earnings by selling fuel and convenience store merchandise directly to consumers. Additionally, MPC's midstream segment, mainly through its subsidiary MPLX LP, provides transportation and logistics services, including the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and crude oil. Significant partnerships with suppliers and distributors, alongside its strategic infrastructure investments, bolster its capacity to efficiently deliver energy products, thus enhancing profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Shows earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each segment, offering a clear view of operational efficiency and cash flow generation, crucial for assessing financial health and investment potential.
Chart InsightsMarathon Petroleum's Refining and Marketing segment has seen a significant decline in adjusted EBITDA since mid-2022, reflecting ongoing challenges in the renewable diesel segment and lower capture rates. In contrast, the Midstream segment has shown resilience and growth, with an 8% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, bolstered by strategic acquisitions. Despite a net loss in Q1 2025, the company remains optimistic about future growth, driven by strategic investments in refining capacity and midstream expansions, which aim to enhance long-term competitiveness and capitalize on demand growth in diesel and jet fuel.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Marathon Petroleum has shown resilience in profitability, managing debt levels effectively. The company faces challenges with revenue decline and incomplete data on certain metrics. Improvements in cash flow and revenue growth are vital for future stability.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Marathon Petroleum has demonstrated strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and EBIT margin despite fluctuations in total revenue. The company's net profit margin has shown recovery from negative results in 2020 to positive figures in subsequent years. However, there is a notable decline in total revenue over the years, especially from 2022 to 2023, which could be a concern moving forward.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a positive equity ratio and a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating effective debt management over time. Return on equity has improved significantly, especially post-2020, reflecting better utilization of shareholder equity. However, some years show zero or missing values for total assets and liabilities, which may affect complete assessment.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow performance has been mixed. While operating cash flow has been positive, free cash flow has shown fluctuations, with a notable growth in 2022. The lack of data for 2024 poses challenges in assessing current cash flow health. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable for some periods due to missing free cash flow data.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
138.86B149.35B178.24B120.45B69.90B
Gross Profit
9.29B20.78B26.57B10.44B4.16B
EBIT
5.25B14.51B19.75B3.76B-2.60B
EBITDA
10.60B18.65B22.96B7.42B-8.90B
Net Income Common Stockholders
3.44B9.68B14.52B1.29B-11.03B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.21B10.22B11.77B10.84B555.00M
Total Assets
78.86B85.99B89.90B85.37B85.16B
Total Debt
28.76B28.50B27.91B26.90B33.09B
Net Debt
25.55B23.06B19.28B21.61B32.54B
Total Liabilities
54.35B54.59B54.82B51.79B54.94B
Stockholders Equity
17.75B24.40B27.71B26.21B22.20B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
6.13B12.23B13.94B2.90B-368.00M
Operating Cash Flow
8.66B14.12B16.36B4.36B2.42B
Investing Cash Flow
1.53B-3.10B623.00M14.80B-3.26B
Financing Cash Flow
-12.43B-14.21B-13.65B-14.42B-135.00M

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price158.89
Price Trends
50DMA
141.49
Positive
100DMA
143.87
Positive
200DMA
150.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
6.72
Negative
RSI
65.10
Neutral
STOCH
52.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 150.08, above the 50-day MA of 141.49, and above the 200-day MA of 150.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
OXOXY
75
Outperform
$40.43B16.639.43%2.19%1.35%-33.30%
73
Outperform
$40.42B8.4614.26%4.55%47.89%-7.87%
MPMPC
72
Outperform
$48.81B22.3212.37%2.21%-6.39%-64.50%
72
Outperform
$35.13B29.7546.37%2.01%6.05%11.64%
PSPSX
69
Neutral
$49.26B27.576.48%4.12%-7.61%-66.18%
VLVLO
68
Neutral
$41.41B46.613.73%3.28%-8.44%-85.95%
57
Neutral
$7.04B3.12-3.45%5.79%0.62%-50.55%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
158.89
-13.84
-8.01%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum
41.08
-19.80
-32.52%
PSX
Phillips 66
112.98
-24.23
-17.66%
TRGP
Targa Resources
159.09
47.43
42.48%
VLO
Valero Energy
128.72
-27.83
-17.78%
FANG
Diamondback
136.29
-49.83
-26.77%

Marathon Petroleum Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.49%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call portrayed a mixed sentiment with strong performances in the midstream segment and strategic expansions, but these were balanced by challenges such as a net loss, renewable diesel segment issues, and significant working capital usage. The company remains optimistic about future growth and market conditions.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Midstream Segment Performance
Midstream segment adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year-over-year, with MPLX announcing over $1 billion in strategic acquisitions. Distributions from MPLX to MPC increased by 12.5% compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Refining Utilization and Strategic Turnarounds
Refining utilization was 89%, with successful completion of significant planned turnarounds focused on the Gulf Coast region. This was strategically planned during a period of seasonally weaker demand.
Commercial Execution and Capture Rate
The company achieved a first-quarter capture rate of 104% due to strong commercial execution and seasonally strong clean product tailwinds.
Positive Market Outlook and Strategic Positioning
The company is optimistic about demand growth, especially in diesel and jet fuel. Strategic investments in the Los Angeles refinery are expected to improve reliability and energy efficiency.
Significant Expansion in NGL and Natural Gas Value Chain
MPLX will acquire the remaining 55% interest in the BANGL NGL pipeline and expand its crude oil value chain by acquiring gathering businesses from Whiptail Midstream.
Negative Updates
Net Loss in Q1 2025
Reported a first-quarter net loss of $0.24 per share, with adjusted EBITDA lower sequentially by $145 million due to decreased results in Refining and Marketing and renewable diesel segments.
Renewable Diesel Segment Challenges
The renewable diesel facilities faced a challenging environment with 70% utilization due to unplanned downtime and changes in regulatory credits, which reduced margins across the industry.
Working Capital and Inventory Build
Working capital was a $1.1 billion use of cash for the quarter, primarily driven by inventory builds mostly in the Gulf Coast region related to planned turnarounds and export shipments.
Company Guidance
During the Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) first quarter 2025 earnings call, significant guidance was provided on operational and financial metrics. The refining utilization rate was 89%, reflecting the completion of a large amount of planned turnarounds, particularly in the Gulf Coast region. The capture rate was 104%, and the Midstream segment's adjusted EBITDA grew by 8% year-over-year. MPC reported a first-quarter net loss of $0.24 per share, with $1.3 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and repurchases. The company provided a second-quarter outlook, projecting throughput volumes of 2.8 million barrels per day, representing 94% utilization. Additionally, major capital projects include a $700 million investment in the Los Angeles refinery to improve reliability and energy efficiency. The call highlighted MPC's strategic investments and anticipated growth, with a focus on leveraging its integrated systems and midstream acquisitions to enhance long-term competitiveness.

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Marathon Petroleum Announces Executive Vice President Retirement
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

On April 28, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced the retirement of Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President of Refining, effective September 2, 2025, after over 40 years of service. Mike Henschen will succeed him on June 1, 2025, with Aydt remaining in a non-executive role to aid in the transition until his retirement.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.