Want to see VLO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Valero Energy
(NYSE:VLO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$496.00
▲(45.71% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (especially strong TTM cash flow) and strong technical trend/momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call reinforces near-term strength with upbeat results and maintained operational/capex plans, while valuation is only moderate (P/E ~18 and a modest ~1.08% yield) and the standalone corporate event is not a major fundamental catalyst.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Valero is currently converting earnings into substantial cash, giving it capacity to sustain refinery operations, fund capital needs, reduce financial obligations, and return capital to shareholders. Although cash flow is cyclical, the present level provides meaningful resilience through changing market conditions.
Negative Factors
Cyclical and Below-Peak Profitability
Recent earnings have rebounded, but profitability remains materially below prior peaks, demonstrating that Valero's refining model is exposed to changing crack spreads, demand, inventories, and feedstock costs. This cyclicality can make earnings and returns difficult to sustain across the full cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Valero is currently converting earnings into substantial cash, giving it capacity to sustain refinery operations, fund capital needs, reduce financial obligations, and return capital to shareholders. Although cash flow is cyclical, the present level provides meaningful resilience through changing market conditions.
Read all positive factors
Valero Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Refining Operating Income by Geography
Highlights the profitability of refining activities in various locations, offering insight into regional performance and strategic positioning.
Highlights the profitability of refining activities in various locations, offering insight into regional performance and strategic positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyValero Energy (VLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$124.79B
Dividend Yield1.08%
Average Volume (3M)3.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth12.92%
EPS Growth898.48%
CountryUS
Employees9,785
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)24.12
Shares Outstanding287,927,460
10 Day Avg. Volume2,324,780
30 Day Avg. Volume3,388,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.83
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio10.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$439.88Price Target Upside29.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)53.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$161.78B
Valero Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valero Energy Corporation functions as a global producer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemicals, with operations spanning the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and other international territories. The company org...
How the Company Makes Money
Valero makes money primarily by refining crude oil and other feedstocks into higher-value refined products and selling those products. Its core revenue model is margin-based: it purchases feedstocks (e.g., crude oil), processes them in its refiner...
Valero Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Valero reported substantially higher net income, strong operating income across refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol, record or near-record operating performance, robust cash generation, low net leverage, resilient fuel demand, and favorable Gulf Coast refining fundamentals. The main cautions were market volatility, elevated freight costs, DGD-specific third-quarter disruptions, deferred industry maintenance, lower U.K. home-heating-oil sales, and the potential for crack compression if crude prices rise further.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $6.8 billion, or $23.89 per share, compared with $1.1 billion, or $3.53 per share, in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted net income was $6.8 billion, or $23.90 per share, compared with $1.1 billion, or $3.66 per share a year earlier.
Negative Updates
Elevated Market Volatility and Freight Dislocations
Management described the market as extremely volatile, with Middle East events, insurance premiums, transshipment delays, bunker costs, and ship-to-ship crude transfers driving freight higher. The cost to move a VLCC from the Gulf Coast to Asia was approximately $30 to $35 per barrel, compared with approximately $5 per barrel on average in 2025, causing severe dislocations in global crude pricing.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $6.8 billion, or $23.89 per share, compared with $1.1 billion, or $3.53 per share, in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted net income was $6.8 billion, or $23.90 per share, compared with $1.1 billion, or $3.66 per share a year earlier.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valero still expects capital investments attributable to Valero for 2026 to be approximately $2 billion, with approximately $1.7 billion allocated to sustaining the business and the remainder directed toward growth projects; Port Arthur DHT repairs remain on track for completion by year end, with total repair costs still estimated to be approximately $250 million, and a substantial portion of the cost expected to be covered by insurance. For modeling our fourth quarter operations, refining throughput is expected at Gulf Coast at 1.855 to 1.91 million barrels per day, Mid Continent at 440 thousand to 460 thousand barrels per day, West Coast at 100 to 110 thousand barrels per day, and North Atlantic at 480 thousand to 500 thousand barrels per day, with refining cash operating expenses of $4.85 per barrel. Renewable diesel sales volumes are expected to be approximately 25 million gallons, with operating expenses of 53 cents per gallon, including 23 cents per gallon for non cash costs such as depreciation and amortization; ethanol production is expected to be 4.9 million gallons per day, with operating expenses averaging 38 cents per gallon, including 4 cents per gallon for non cash costs such as depreciation and amortization. Fourth-quarter net interest expense should be about $135 million, total depreciation and amortization expense should be approximately $700 million, and G&A expenses for 2026 are expected to be approximately $1.1 billion; the long term $4 billion to $5 billion cash target remains unchanged.Valero Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 132.93B | 122.69B | 129.88B | 144.77B | 176.38B | 113.98B |
| Gross Profit | 15.06B | 5.37B | 4.76B | 12.89B | 16.75B | 3.08B |
| EBITDA | 13.41B | 6.72B | 7.03B | 14.66B | 18.34B | 4.55B |
| Net Income | 7.21B | 2.35B | 2.77B | 8.84B | 11.53B | 930.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 64.66B | 57.99B | 60.14B | 63.06B | 60.98B | 57.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.87B | 4.69B | 4.66B | 5.42B | 4.86B | 4.12B |
| Total Debt | 11.35B | 11.70B | 11.54B | 12.64B | 12.72B | 15.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.40B | 31.38B | 32.62B | 34.53B | 35.51B | 38.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.00B | 23.73B | 24.51B | 26.35B | 23.56B | 18.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.12B | 5.03B | 5.78B | 8.32B | 10.89B | 4.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.91B | 5.83B | 6.68B | 9.23B | 12.57B | 5.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.56B | -1.84B | -1.98B | -1.86B | -2.81B | -2.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.86B | -4.18B | -5.05B | -6.94B | -8.85B | -2.85B |
Valero Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
340.41
Price Trends
390.88
Positive
335.42
Positive
277.98
Positive
Market Momentum
14.69
Positive
54.90
Neutral
26.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 340.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 423.89, below the 50-day MA of 390.88, and above the 200-day MA of 277.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 14.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VLO.
Valero Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $124.79B | 18.11 | 29.94% | 1.08% | 12.92% | 898.48% | |
77 Outperform | $22.28B | 11.92 | 19.86% | 1.61% | 16.26% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $116.13B | 16.45 | 24.45% | 1.73% | 15.60% | 322.30% | |
75 Outperform | $9.67B | 7.10 | 24.08% | 1.35% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $131.42B | 16.11 | 48.71% | 0.86% | 15.19% | 331.26% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $4.79B | 21.43 | 95.27% | 1.30% | 11.40% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
VLO
Valero Energy
426.28
256.75
151.44%
DK
Delek US Holdings
75.79
39.05
106.30%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
122.32
69.20
130.28%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
459.28
266.54
138.29%
PSX
Phillips 66
284.63
152.73
115.79%
PBF
PBF Energy
79.25
46.02
138.45%
Valero Energy Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Valero Energy Expands Board, Appoints New Director
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Valero Energy’s board of directors expanded its size to 11 members and elected Matthew Audette as a director, with an initial term running until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. Audette was simultaneously appoi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.