DHL Group (DHLGY) AI Stock Analysis

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DHL Group

(OTC:DHLGY)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$52.00

▲(12.46% Upside)

DHL Group's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and effective strategic management, as evidenced by robust EBIT growth and cash generation. The valuation is reasonable, with a solid dividend yield. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, while the earnings call underscores the company's resilience amidst market challenges.

DHL Group (DHLGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$53.53B

Dividend Yield4.54%

Average Volume (3M)153.99K

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2

Beta (1Y)0.76

Revenue Growth3.37%

EPS Growth8.19%

CountryUS

Employees580,580

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.83

Shares Outstanding1,200,000,000

10 Day Avg. Volume312,544

30 Day Avg. Volume153,994

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.47

Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.00

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$52.00

Price Target Upside12.46% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDeutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce; and Post & Parcel Germany. The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers. The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions. The Supply Chain segment delivers customized logistics services and supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services, as well as value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors. The eCommerce segment provides parcel delivery and non-time definite international cross-border services. The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports, sorts, and delivers mail communication, physical and hybrid letters, and goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items. Deutsche Post AG is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

How the Company Makes MoneyDHL Group generates revenue through a diversified model that includes several key streams. The primary revenue sources are derived from its express delivery services, freight forwarding, and contract logistics. DHL Express, which focuses on time-sensitive international shipping, contributes significantly to revenue through premium pricing for expedited delivery. DHL Global Forwarding and DHL Freight capitalize on global trade by providing air and ocean freight services, as well as road transportation, catering to both full truckload and less-than-truckload shipments. Additionally, DHL Supply Chain offers warehousing and distribution services, creating long-term contracts that ensure stable revenue. The company has strategic partnerships with airlines, shipping lines, and technology firms that enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency. Factors such as e-commerce growth, global trade dynamics, and increased demand for logistics solutions have further bolstered DHL Group's earnings.

DHL Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a balanced view of DHL's performance, with strong EBIT growth and effective cost management amidst challenges in global trade volumes and specific segment declines. The company remains committed to seizing growth opportunities while navigating market uncertainties.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong EBIT Growth

DHL Group achieved a 6% year-over-year increase in Q2 EBIT, driven by effective cost management and structural measures under the Fit for Growth program.

Express Segment Performance

Express segment achieved the fourth consecutive quarter of EBIT increase despite underlying volume decline, thanks to cost flexibility and yield management.

Resilient Supply Chain Margin

Supply Chain division maintained a resilient EBIT margin of 7% after adjusting for positive M&A one-offs.

Strong Cash Generation

Continued strong cash generation enabled targeted investments, with significant shareholder returns through EUR 3 billion spent on dividends and share buybacks in the first half of the year.

Targeted Inorganic Growth

Pursued strategic M&A focusing on life sciences, healthcare, geographic tailwinds, and e-commerce to enhance capabilities and market presence.

Negative Updates

Global Trade Volume Decline

Lower volumes in global trade impacted results, with significant volatility across trade lanes.

Challenges in DGFF Segment

DGFF experienced lower EBIT conversion due to volatility and weaker demand, impacted by booked one-off costs related to the Fit for Growth program.

B2C Volume Decline in Express

B2C volumes in Express declined by 20% due to the de minimis exemption abolishment for China, Hong Kong to the U.S., contributing to a 10% overall TDI volume decline.

De Minimis Exemption Impact

The abolishment of the de minimis exemption for shipments from China to the U.S. poses a potential worst-case scenario risk of up to EUR 200 million on full-year '25 EBIT.

Company Guidance

During the DHL Group's Q2 2025 conference call, the company outlined its financial performance and strategic guidance amidst challenging global trade conditions. Notably, DHL achieved a 6% year-over-year increase in EBIT despite facing lower volumes in global trade, attributed to effective cost management and structural adjustments under the Fit for Growth program. The company highlighted a strong cash generation, with a free cash flow effect of approximately EUR 100 million from M&A activities, and a EUR 4 million net positive impact from nonrecurring effects. The Express division excelled with a fourth consecutive quarter of EBIT increase, aided by a 7% reduction in air capacity and effective yield management. DHL reiterated its full-year guidance, acknowledging potential risks from changes in tariffs and trade conflicts, particularly concerning the de minimis exemption. The strategic focus remains on investing in structural growth opportunities, as outlined in Strategy 2030, while maintaining a balanced approach to cost control and organic investments.

DHL Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

DHL Group demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and efficient operations. While the Net Profit Margin and ROE have slightly decreased, the company maintains a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage. Cash flows are healthy, supporting operational needs and potential future growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

DHL Group has shown robust revenue growth over the years, with Total Revenue increasing from €63.34 billion in 2019 to €84.77 billion in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin has been stable, with a slight decrease from 17.10% in 2023 to 16.44% in 2024. The Net Profit Margin decreased from 4.50% in 2023 to 3.93% in 2024, indicating some pressure on profitability. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong, highlighting operational efficiency. Revenue growth is positive, suggesting a healthy expansion trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The Debt-to-Equity Ratio increased slightly from 0.93 in 2023 to 1.02 in 2024, reflecting a moderate level of leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) decreased from 16.36% in 2023 to 14.00% in 2024, indicating a slight decline in shareholder returns. The Equity Ratio stands at 34.04%, showing a solid equity base compared to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet is stable with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Operating Cash Flow remains strong at €8.72 billion in 2024, though slightly down from €9.26 billion in 2023. Free Cash Flow showed a minor decline from €5.88 billion in 2023 to €5.79 billion in 2024, but it remains robust. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is also solid, supporting operational sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	84.52B	84.77B	81.76B	94.44B	81.75B	66.81B
Gross Profit	10.58B	13.93B	14.21B	16.55B	15.44B	11.77B
EBITDA	9.88B	7.57B	10.81B	12.73B	11.69B	8.54B
Net Income	3.45B	3.33B	3.68B	5.36B	5.05B	2.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	67.38B	69.88B	66.81B	68.28B	63.59B	55.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.01B	2.19B	2.08B	3.19B	4.71B	5.80B
Total Debt	0.00	24.21B	20.83B	20.22B	19.02B	18.35B
Total Liabilities	46.30B	45.66B	43.92B	44.58B	44.09B	41.23B
Stockholders Equity	20.64B	23.79B	22.48B	23.24B	19.04B	13.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.14B	5.79B	5.88B	7.05B	6.26B	4.78B
Operating Cash Flow	9.00B	8.72B	9.26B	10.96B	9.99B	7.70B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.69B	-2.39B	-2.18B	-3.18B	-4.82B	-3.64B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.79B	-6.35B	-6.90B	-7.41B	-6.22B	-2.25B

DHL Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price46.24

Price Trends

50DMA

45.70

Positive

100DMA

45.94

Positive

200DMA

42.75

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.16

Negative

RSI

56.81

Neutral

STOCH

91.21

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DHLGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.12, above the 50-day MA of 45.70, and above the 200-day MA of 42.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DHLGY.

DHL Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DHLGY	78 Outperform	$53.53B	14.24	15.65%	4.54%	3.37%	8.19%
FDX	73 Outperform	$56.58B	13.90	14.98%	2.33%	1.14%	4.99%
ZTO	73 Outperform	$15.01B	13.06	13.98%	3.37%	14.40%	2.41%
UPS	72 Outperform	$73.66B	12.85	34.96%	7.44%	0.94%	9.62%
EXPD	71 Outperform	$16.35B	19.57	39.01%	1.24%	23.70%	31.33%
XPO	69 Neutral	$15.76B	46.28	21.10%	―	-0.11%	-4.28%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DHLGY

DHL Group

46.08

7.56

19.63%

EXPD

Expeditors International

121.03

3.06

2.59%

XPO

136.00

26.53

24.23%

FDX

FedEx

242.84

-19.06

-7.28%

UPS

United Parcel

88.06

-35.52

-28.74%

ZTO

ZTO Express

19.01

-5.13

-21.25%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 17, 2025