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DHL Group
(OTC:DHLGY)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(5.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (return to growth and strong free cash flow) and a notably constructive earnings update (raised EBIT outlook and strong divisional execution). Offsetting factors include increased leverage and mixed near-term technical signals, while valuation looks reasonable with supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial optionality: it funds disciplined CapEx, dividends and the enlarged buyback program while supporting debt servicing. Strong FCF reduces reliance on external financing and underpins long‑term capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Higher leverage constrains strategic flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk over the medium term. Although returns remain healthy, elevated debt means deleveraging would take time even with strong cash flow, limiting capacity for large opportunistic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial optionality: it funds disciplined CapEx, dividends and the enlarged buyback program while supporting debt servicing. Strong FCF reduces reliance on external financing and underpins long‑term capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive factors
DHL Group (DHLGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$72.26B
Dividend Yield3.5%
Average Volume (3M)152.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth8.68%
EPS Growth19.32%
CountryUS
Employees583,998
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.67
Shares Outstanding2,300,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume141,727
30 Day Avg. Volume152,126
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.50
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio9.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$100.88B
DHL Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Bonn, Germany, Deutsche Post AG serves as a prominent global mail and logistics provider, with operations extending across Germany, the wider European continent, the Americas, the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa. ...
How the Company Makes Money
DHL Group makes money primarily by charging customers for transportation and logistics services across several major revenue streams: (1) Express shipping: Time-definite international and domestic door-to-door delivery (documents and parcels). Rev...
DHL Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented broad and meaningful operational progress: double‑digit revenue growth (+13% YoY), strong Group EBIT expansion (+30% YoY), clear improvements in Express (robust weight‑per‑day recovery, ~16.8% margin, ~EUR 1.2bn EBIT) and visible momentum in Global Forwarding and Supply Chain (DGF volumes +7%; Supply Chain reported +13%/10% organic with 6.5% margin and >EUR 300m EBIT excluding special items). Management completed Fit for Growth, increased the buyback program to EUR 6.5bn, and reiterated free cash flow and CapEx discipline. Offsetting these positives are several temporary and timing‑related items (EUR 150m airfreight distortion benefit, EUR 416m IEEPA cash timing) and ongoing volatility from fuel and insurance costs, plus the need for further structural improvements in Global Forwarding and seasonally weak months ahead. Overall, the highlights — strong growth, margin recovery, strategic progress, and shareholder returns — outweigh the transitory lowlights and remaining execution work.Positive Updates
Group Revenue and EBIT Acceleration
Group revenue grew 13% year‑on‑year in Q2 FY2026 and Group EBIT increased by 30% year‑on‑year, reflecting strong top‑line momentum and improved operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Temporary Market Tailwinds and Uncertain Persistence
Management quantified a temporary ~EUR 150 million benefit in Q2 from tight airfreight/Asia‑Europe market distortions (Middle East disruption spillovers). They cautioned this is a one‑off/temporary uplift and its continuation into future quarters is uncertain.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue and EBIT Acceleration
Group revenue grew 13% year‑on‑year in Q2 FY2026 and Group EBIT increased by 30% year‑on‑year, reflecting strong top‑line momentum and improved operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised its full‑year 2026 EBIT outlook, now expecting Group EBIT to exceed EUR 6.5 billion (the increase is coming from the DHL divisions while P&P and Group Functions remain unchanged), and kept free cash flow and gross CapEx guidance and the mid‑term outlook unchanged; the move was backed by a strong Q2 (group revenue +13% y/y, Group EBIT +30% y/y with roughly EUR 1.9bn cited for the quarter), Express momentum (Q2 Express EBIT ~EUR 1.2bn and a 16.8% margin, weight‑per‑day recovery), improving divisional trends (DHL Supply Chain reported growth +13% / organic +10% and >EUR 300m EBIT in the quarter; Global Forwarding air and ocean volumes +7% and conversion >19%), a temporary ~EUR 150m benefit from tight air‑freight markets, H1 free cash flow that keeps the year on track (note a EUR 416m timing effect from IEEPA reimbursements), and an expanded share‑buyback program increased to a cumulative up to EUR 6.5bn (with about EUR 1.5bn of buyback capacity remaining through end‑2027).DHL Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 85.46B | 79.58B | 84.77B | 81.76B | 94.44B | 81.75B |
| Gross Profit | 9.80B | 8.64B | 13.93B | 14.21B | 16.55B | 15.44B |
| EBITDA | 11.75B | 8.52B | 7.57B | 10.81B | 12.73B | 11.69B |
| Net Income | 3.74B | 3.36B | 3.33B | 3.68B | 5.36B | 5.05B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 73.00B | 74.22B | 69.88B | 66.81B | 68.28B | 63.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.29B | 5.08B | 2.19B | 2.08B | 3.19B | 4.71B |
| Total Debt | 27.96B | 25.44B | 24.21B | 20.83B | 20.22B | 19.02B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.20B | 51.60B | 45.66B | 43.92B | 44.58B | 44.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.28B | 22.22B | 23.79B | 22.48B | 23.24B | 19.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.22B | 5.39B | 5.79B | 5.88B | 7.05B | 6.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.10B | 8.07B | 8.72B | 9.26B | 10.96B | 9.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.45B | -4.74B | -2.39B | -2.18B | -3.18B | -4.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.09B | -3.35B | -6.35B | -6.90B | -7.41B | -6.22B |
DHL Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $24.54B | 26.99 | 40.68% | 0.85% | 6.77% | 12.05% | |
72 Outperform | $72.26B | 16.60 | 16.64% | 3.50% | 8.68% | 19.32% | |
69 Neutral | $76.33B | 17.11 | 15.11% | 1.50% | 7.73% | 10.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $87.03B | 18.64 | 29.07% | 6.53% | -0.18% | -19.99% | |
58 Neutral | $17.25B | 28.27 | 36.01% | 1.68% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
45 Neutral | $5.54B | 40.80 | 4.41% | ― | 7.55% | 114.56% |
* Industrials Sector Average
DHLGY
DHL Group
31.85
9.85
44.74%
CHRW
CH Robinson
150.10
25.94
20.90%
EXPD
Expeditors International
185.96
66.25
55.34%
FDX
FedEx
314.13
134.67
75.05%
UPS
United Parcel
100.48
21.28
26.87%
GXO
GXO Logistics
46.71
-4.18
-8.21%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.