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FedEx
(NYSE:FDX)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$314.00
▼(-5.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance (stronger cash generation and a materially de-risked balance sheet) and constructive guidance/outlook from management. This is tempered by weak current price momentum (downtrend signals across moving averages and MACD) and only moderately attractive valuation metrics.
Positive Factors
Network Transformation and Cost Savings
Network 2.0 is a structural efficiency program that can lower unit costs by concentrating eligible volume through optimized stations. Progress toward the savings targets should support margins and cash generation over the next several quarters, while improving the network’s competitive economics.
Negative Factors
FedEx Freight Operating Drag
The Freight business has been a meaningful drag on consolidated profitability, with sharp margin contraction and lower operating income. Although the spin-off separates this exposure, the weak performance highlights execution and demand challenges that can affect transition results and reduce overall earnings quality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Network Transformation and Cost Savings
Network 2.0 is a structural efficiency program that can lower unit costs by concentrating eligible volume through optimized stations. Progress toward the savings targets should support margins and cash generation over the next several quarters, while improving the network’s competitive economics.
Read all positive factors
FedEx Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Expense Breakdown
Analyzes various cost components such as transportation, salaries, and fuel, providing insight into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
Analyzes various cost components such as transportation, salaries, and fuel, providing insight into operational efficiency and cost management strategies.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFedEx (FDX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$69.04B
Dividend Yield1.64%
Average Volume (3M)1.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth7.73%
EPS Growth10.07%
CountryUS
Employees530,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.36
Shares Outstanding236,670,440
10 Day Avg. Volume1,546,877
30 Day Avg. Volume1,562,922
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.85
P/FCF Ratio15.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$367.64Price Target Upside10.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)22.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$98.51B
FedEx Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FedEx Corporation is a prominent global entity that delivers an extensive array of services encompassing transportation, e-commerce solutions, and diverse business support, catering to clients both within the United States and across international...
How the Company Makes Money
FedEx makes money primarily by charging customers to transport parcels and freight through its global air and ground networks, with pricing based on factors such as service speed (e.g., express vs. deferred), shipment weight and dimensions, origin...
FedEx Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive operating and financial momentum driven by FedEx Express: double-digit revenue/yield strength in Q4, margin expansion at FEC, strong free cash flow, an improved outlook for the transition year, progress on Network 2.0 and transformation savings, and solid execution in high-value verticals (health care, data center, industrial). Offsetting factors include underperformance and margin pressure from FedEx Freight (now spun off), MD-11 grounding and related retirements, notable inflationary and labor-related cost headwinds (including variable compensation and pilot agreement impacts), stranded costs from the spin, and pockets of volume decline in lower-yield segments. On balance, the company emphasized durable profitable growth, solid cash generation, and a confident outlook for CY2026 and CY2029 targets.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Full-year FY2026 consolidated revenue and adjusted operating income both grew 8% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted operating income improved $491 million (8%) for the full year.
Negative Updates
FedEx Freight Performance Drag
FedEx Freight Q4 adjusted operating income declined by $114 million and adjusted operating margin contracted ~570 basis points; Freight results created nearly a $400 million headwind to consolidated adjusted operating income for FY2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Operating Income Growth
Full-year FY2026 consolidated revenue and adjusted operating income both grew 8% year-over-year; consolidated adjusted operating income improved $491 million (8%) for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
FedEx guided to calendar‑year 2026 consolidated revenue growth of ~11% (CY25 revenue baseline ≈ $82B) including ~3 percentage points of fuel‑surcharge benefit, and adjusted EPS of $16.90–$18.10 (midpoint $17.50), implying ~20% adjusted EPS growth for the June–Dec transition period; they expect ~10% revenue growth in the June–Dec stub with consolidated adjusted operating income of $3.8B (up ~19% YoY) and an estimated $11.30 of adjusted EPS for that period. Management’s CY26 bridge targets continuing‑operations adjusted operating income of $5.8B (midpoint) from a CY25 starting point of ~$5.0B that includes ~$350M of stranded costs, and assumes FEC volume net tailwind of ~$600M, FEC yield tailwind of ~$3.7B, base expense headwind of ~$2.6B, a variable‑comp headwind of ~$800M (only ~$100M incremental in the remaining 7 months), a ~$200M pilot‑agreement headwind and a ~$100M benefit from removing stranded costs (with ~30% of remaining stranded costs to be removed this year). They plan CY26 CapEx ≈ $3.9B (FY26 CapEx was $3.8B, CapEx/revenue ~4%), expect to contribute ~$475M to pensions (105% funded as of May 31), reported FY26 adjusted free cash flow of $4.7B and reaffirmed a $6B adjusted FCF target for CY29, and indicated capital actions including a 5% dividend increase (post‑spin) and up to $1B of opportunistic share repurchases in the remainder of CY26.FedEx Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 94.72B | 87.93B | 87.69B | 90.16B | 93.51B |
| Gross Profit | 20.62B | 19.00B | 18.95B | 19.17B | 20.17B |
| EBITDA | 11.13B | 10.49B | 10.87B | 10.23B | 9.55B |
| Net Income | 4.43B | 4.09B | 4.33B | 3.97B | 3.83B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 98.94B | 87.63B | 87.01B | 87.11B | 85.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.31B | 5.57B | 6.50B | 6.86B | 6.90B |
| Total Debt | 42.94B | 37.42B | 37.72B | 38.33B | 37.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 67.29B | 59.55B | 59.42B | 61.05B | 61.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.65B | 28.07B | 27.58B | 26.09B | 24.94B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.12B | 2.98B | 3.14B | 2.64B | 3.07B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.93B | 7.04B | 8.31B | 8.81B | 9.83B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.91B | -4.09B | -5.20B | -6.17B | -6.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.75B | -4.02B | -3.43B | -2.60B | -3.02B |
FedEx Technical Analysis
Negative
333.71
Price Trends
310.49
Negative
314.51
Negative
298.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-6.28
Negative
42.02
Neutral
87.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FDX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 333.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 293.55, above the 50-day MA of 310.49, and above the 200-day MA of 298.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FDX.
FedEx Risk Analysis
FedEx disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. FedEx reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
FedEx Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $25.12B | 27.91 | 40.68% | 0.82% | 6.77% | 12.05% | |
67 Neutral | $69.04B | 15.89 | 15.11% | 1.64% | 7.73% | 10.07% | |
64 Neutral | $21.53B | 32.57 | 18.75% | 0.78% | 5.28% | 28.24% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $25.44B | 26.74 | 36.01% | 1.77% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
62 Neutral | $80.46B | 17.59 | 29.07% | 6.94% | -0.18% | -19.99% | |
54 Neutral | $5.34B | 40.74 | 4.41% | ― | 7.55% | 114.56% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FDX
FedEx
291.71
109.87
60.42%
CHRW
CH Robinson
142.31
19.79
16.15%
EXPD
Expeditors International
193.24
80.45
71.33%
JBHT
JB Hunt
229.26
92.26
67.35%
UPS
United Parcel
94.57
16.52
21.16%
GXO
GXO Logistics
46.56
-5.95
-11.33%
FedEx Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
FedEx Shareholders Back Board, Approve Key Governance Items
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
FedEx held its annual meeting of stockholders on September 28, 2026, where shareholders elected eleven directors to serve until the April 26, 2027 annual meeting, all receiving more votes for than against. Stockholders also gave strong advisory ap...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FedEx Strengthens Long-Term Capital Structure With New Notes
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
On September 9, 2026, FedEx and key subsidiaries entered into underwriting agreements with major international banks to issue €1.1 billion of 4.000% notes due 2030, €900 million of 4.625% notes due 2034, and $1.1 billion of 5.750% note...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FedEx Adopts New Executive Severance and Consulting Plan
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
On July 20, 2026, FedEx’s board approved a new Executive Severance Plan governing all future separations with executive officers, replacing its prior Management Retention Agreements. The plan conditions severance on releases of claims and st...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
FedEx Reshapes Debt After FedEx Freight Spin-Off
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
On July 10, 2026, FedEx announced early results of its cash tender offers for a broad slate of long-dated notes, launched under an Offer to Purchase dated June 25, 2026. As of the July 9 early tender deadline, holders had tendered more than the $4...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.