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Retail Food Group
(Sydney:RFG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.86
▼(-17.21% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/27/26
The score is driven primarily by a stabilizing financial profile (positive cash generation and a manageable balance sheet) but constrained by uneven earnings and a FY2026 revenue decline. Technicals add support with improving short-to-medium term momentum, while valuation is penalized due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data. Earnings-call guidance is modestly supportive on expected FY27 margin/cash flow improvement, tempered by near-term sales softness.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provide RFG with internally generated funding for operations, debt service and selected growth initiatives. Although cash conversion varies, the recovery from FY2023 supports greater financial resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and volatile earnings
The FY2026 revenue contraction and history of losses show that RFG’s earnings base is not yet consistently stable. A modest statutory profit after prior deficits leaves limited evidence that improved profitability can be maintained if sales weakness persists.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provide RFG with internally generated funding for operations, debt service and selected growth initiatives. Although cash conversion varies, the recovery from FY2023 supports greater financial resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Retail Food Group (RFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$51.87M
Dividend Yield219.2%
Average Volume (3M)39.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)45.8
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth-9.06%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees59
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding63,259,403
10 Day Avg. Volume12,600
30 Day Avg. Volume39,668
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.36
P/FCF Ratio16.06
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.80Price Target Upside73.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$108.02M
Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Retail Food Group Limited (RFG) is an Australian-based food and beverage enterprise that oversees a diverse portfolio of franchised retail brands both domestically and across the globe. Its operations are structured across four key divisions: Bake...
How the Company Makes Money
RFG primarily makes money through a franchise-led model. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Franchise fees and ongoing royalties: franchisees pay upfront fees to join a brand system and ongoing royalties (often calculated as a percenta...
Retail Food Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously positive outlook: management delivered FY'26 underlying EBITDA within guidance, achieved material second-half improvement in earnings and cash flow, completed major transformation actions and put in place refinancing and an international supply hub. Several brand-level initiatives show encouraging early results (Gloria Jean's +19% post-refurb, Crust and QSR growth, Beefy's top-line demand). However, revenue and network sales declined, coffee margin pressure and international supply transition weighed on FY'26 results, and some profitability issues remain (notably Beefy's EBITDA). With transformation savings and March coffee pricing expected to benefit FY'27, the positives from execution and stabilization modestly outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Underlying EBITDA Within Guidance and Strong H2 Improvement
Underlying EBITDA of $20.3M (within guidance). Second half FY'26 underlying EBITDA rose 20.9% vs first half to $11.1M, indicating emerging benefits from the transformation program.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Network Sales Declines
Underlying revenue declined 3% to $99.6M. Domestic network sales were $490M, down 3.1%, and same-store sales declined 0.7% for FY'26, reflecting challenging consumer conditions and outlet closures.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBITDA Within Guidance and Strong H2 Improvement
Underlying EBITDA of $20.3M (within guidance). Second half FY'26 underlying EBITDA rose 20.9% vs first half to $11.1M, indicating emerging benefits from the transformation program.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RFG guided that FY27 will benefit from the March 2026 domestic wholesale coffee price increase, stabilising green‑bean costs and lower input costs, plus full‑year run‑rate benefits from completed cost‑out initiatives targeted to save $5–7 million in FY27, which together should drive improved gross margins, stronger cash flow (building on 2H FY26 operating cash flow of $7.4m versus $1.9m in 1H and FY26 operating cash flow of $9.3m) and improved unit economics for franchise partners; the group also reiterated investment of USD 4m per year for the next two financial years in Firehouse Subs (FY26 P&L setup costs were ~$1.8m), targeting 4 Australian restaurants by December (3 additional sites targeted by year‑end) and 15 by December next year, while entering FY27 with $24.2m cash (unrestricted $14.4m), borrowings of $41.2m under a facility to August 2027 (net debt ~ $26.8m) and a simpler operating model after delivering FY26 underlying EBITDA of $20.3m (2H EBITDA $11.1m, up 20.9% on 1H) and underlying NPAT $7.8m.Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 125.37M | 137.87M | 125.18M | 111.37M | 102.58M |
| Gross Profit | 43.43M | 97.14M | 90.88M | 54.38M | 50.77M |
| EBITDA | 8.11M | -3.78M | 26.58M | 1.42M | 19.28M |
| Net Income | 1.12M | -14.92M | 5.79M | -8.95M | 5.26M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 419.67M | 360.58M | 368.74M | 348.89M | 350.08M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.18M | 26.00M | 20.64M | 22.26M | 29.22M |
| Total Debt | 119.91M | 125.94M | 113.62M | 110.64M | 128.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 224.02M | 165.60M | 160.73M | 149.18M | 166.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 195.65M | 194.98M | 208.01M | 199.71M | 183.78M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.79M | 13.31M | 10.32M | -4.93M | 12.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.39M | 18.41M | 15.36M | -1.20M | 15.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.00M | -6.25M | -9.91M | -2.21M | -828.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.06M | -6.80M | -7.09M | -3.61M | -20.24M |
Retail Food Group Technical Analysis
Negative
1.04
Price Trends
1.02
Negative
0.94
Negative
0.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
31.39
Neutral
<0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.92, above the 50-day MA of 1.02, and above the 200-day MA of 0.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of <0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RFG.
Retail Food Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | AU$231.57M | 25.40 | 48.57% | 4.67% | 3.43% | 18.43% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | AU$51.87M | 45.81 | 0.57% | 219.20% | -9.06% | ― | |
60 Neutral | AU$1.07B | 24.41 | 10.53% | 3.10% | 4.81% | 397.47% | |
56 Neutral | AU$2.55B | -94.11 | -8.88% | 0.77% | 19.36% | -286.26% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.05B | -15.26 | -23.54% | 2.65% | -11.19% | -2942.58% | |
50 Neutral | AU$3.24M | 5.45 | -3.26% | ― | -7.68% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:RFG
Retail Food Group
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Retail Food Group Corporate Events
Retail Food Group Reports Lapse of 258,017 Performance Rights
Oct 7, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has reported a change in its issued capital, notifying the market of the cessation of certain equity-linked securities. The announcement relates specifically to performance rights that were previously on issue to eligible...
Retail Food Group Sets 2026 AGM Date and Director Nomination Deadline
Sep 30, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 11:00 a.m. Queensland time on Thursday, 26 November 2026. The company has also set Thursday, 8 October 2026, as the closing date for receipt of nominations from persons wi...
Retail Food Group Releases FY26 Results Presentation and Highlights Brand Expansion
Aug 25, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has released its FY26 Results Presentation to the market, reflecting ongoing communication of financial performance and strategic progress to investors and stakeholders. The presentation, authorised by the Board, undersco...
Retail Food Group Delivers Within-Guidance EBITDA as Transformation Gains Traction
Aug 25, 2026
Retail Food Group reported FY26 underlying EBITDA of $20.3 million, down 31.4% year on year but within guidance, as challenging consumer conditions and deliberate outlet rationalisation weighed on revenue and profit. Underlying revenue fell 3% to ...
Retail Food Group Files ASX Corporate Governance Statement and Appendix 4G
Aug 25, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has lodged its corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 26 June 2026, in line with ASX Listing Rule requirements. The statement, approved by the board and accessible via the company’s governance w...
Retail Food Group Swings to Profit Despite Revenue and EBITDA Declines
Aug 25, 2026
Retail Food Group reported a 10.7% decline in revenue to A$127.9 million and a 31.4% fall in underlying EBITDA to A$20.3 million for the year ended 26 June 2026, reflecting higher transformation, acquisition, legal and marketing costs, as well as ...
Retail Food Group sets date for FY26 results and investor webinar
Aug 19, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited, a Queensland‑headquartered global food and beverage group, is Australia’s largest multi‑brand retail food franchise manager. It owns iconic brands such as Gloria Jean’s, Donut King, Brumby’s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.