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Collins Foods
(Sydney:CKF)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.50
▲(15.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is driven primarily by middling financial quality—strong revenue growth but inconsistent bottom-line results, leverage constraints, and a FY2026 free-cash-flow step-down—partly offset by a generally positive earnings-call outlook highlighting record FY26 results, improving net debt, and defined growth initiatives. Technicals are neutral-to-weak (below key longer-term averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supported by a ~3.5% yield but moderated by a ~21.6 P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Strong revenue and underlying profit growth indicate continued customer demand across Collins Foods’ restaurant network. This scale supports reinvestment in stores, digital initiatives and brand development, while improving earnings provides a stronger base for sustainable expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage limits flexibility
Leverage remains a meaningful constraint despite recent debt reduction. Higher debt relative to equity can limit the funds available for restaurant openings, remodels and other growth investments, while increasing the importance of consistent operating cash flow and disciplined capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Strong revenue and underlying profit growth indicate continued customer demand across Collins Foods’ restaurant network. This scale supports reinvestment in stores, digital initiatives and brand development, while improving earnings provides a stronger base for sustainable expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Collins Foods (CKF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.06B
Dividend Yield3.13%
Average Volume (3M)267.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.9
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth4.81%
EPS Growth397.47%
CountryAU
Employees22,027
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding118,440,690
10 Day Avg. Volume269,298
30 Day Avg. Volume267,818
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio10.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$9.74Price Target Upside18.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.71B
Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Collins Foods Limited operates and manages restaurants across Australia, Europe, and Asia, featuring a diverse portfolio of well-known brands such as KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler. As of December 31, 2021, the company oversaw 261 franchised KFC esta...
How the Company Makes Money
Collins Foods makes money primarily by operating franchised QSR brands as a restaurant operator. Its main revenue stream is retail sales from company-operated restaurants (food and beverage sales to consumers) across its KFC portfolio in Australia...
Collins Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 29, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported a strong set of FY26 financial results with record revenue, record underlying NPAT, improved cash generation, reduced net debt and clear strategic progress (KFC Australia momentum, German expansion, Kwench rollout, Taco Bell exit, sustainability achievements). However, management acknowledged notable near-term challenges: margin compression from delivery fee changes and higher protein costs, impaired European trading trends into early FY27 driven by macro events (conflict, fuel, heatwaves), avian flu-driven poultry cost pressure, and one-off charges. Overall the positives (record financials, balance sheet improvement, operational wins and clear growth initiatives) outweigh the negatives, which management characterizes as manageable and addressable in FY27 through product, cost actions and strategic investment.Positive Updates
Record Revenue
Revenue from continuing operations of $1.59 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year (FY26); group revenue including discontinued Taco Bell was $1.64 billion (Taco Bell contributed $47.7m).
Negative Updates
Margin Compression and Cost Headwinds
Underlying EBITDA margin slipped (absolute profits up but margin down ~34 basis points) due to delivery fee structure changes, value investments, and higher protein costs in Europe; Australian restaurant-level EBITDA margin reduced 26 basis points to 21%.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue
Revenue from continuing operations of $1.59 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year (FY26); group revenue including discontinued Taco Bell was $1.64 billion (Taco Bell contributed $47.7m).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Collins will continue investment-led growth while maintaining a conservative financial profile: FY27 plans include 7–10 new restaurants in Australia and ~7 in Germany, an A$35m (reported $35m) rollout of Kwench targeting 80% of Australian sites by April, ~ $20m FY27 capex in Germany plus a $3m upfront acceleration spend, and a mid‑term ambition to add 45–90 German restaurants by FY30; incremental G&A of $2m in Australia and $3m in Germany was flagged. Financial priorities are strict capital discipline with R&D/entry‑ticket and supplier entry metrics targeted below 8%, a high‑ROCE hurdle for investments, preservation of an investment‑grade balance sheet, and a progressive absolute dividend policy (FY26 fully franked dividend $0.28/share, final $0.15/share), alongside an expected EUR350m dividend from Mobilize Financial Services. Cash/earnings guidance points to continued strong cash generation (FY26 cash conversion 94%, net operating cash flow before interest and tax $232.6m and after interest/tax $150.1m), lower net debt (FY26 net debt $119.6m, net leverage 0.77 vs 0.93 FY25) and free cash flow “above historical averages”; management flagged a circa 5.5% margin guidance corridor (for 2026), modest commodity inflation in Australia, easing poultry pressure in Europe, and FX/headwinds to be managed.Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.52B | 1.49B | 1.35B | 1.18B |
| Gross Profit | 815.59M | 776.42M | 750.95M | 676.27M | 619.34M |
| EBITDA | 249.13M | 186.16M | 227.85M | 146.26M | 203.99M |
| Net Income | 44.15M | 8.83M | 76.72M | 12.75M | 54.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.63B | 2.29B | 1.42B | 1.54B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 93.91M | 184.28M | 83.82M | 80.24M | 97.22M |
| Total Debt | 842.79M | 1.38B | 834.54M | 843.37M | 748.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.67B | 991.78M | 1.16B | 889.44M |
| Stockholders Equity | 421.74M | 627.04M | 426.44M | 384.50M | 393.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.62M | 178.97M | 93.64M | 70.59M | 83.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 148.53M | 280.69M | 176.39M | 146.22M | 156.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.21M | -105.06M | -53.55M | -93.54M | -97.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -118.41M | -120.63M | -118.90M | -65.94M | -61.95M |
Collins Foods Technical Analysis
Positive
8.23
Price Trends
8.17
Positive
8.12
Positive
8.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
76.40
Negative
91.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.26, above the 50-day MA of 8.17, and below the 200-day MA of 8.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.40 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CKF.
Collins Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | AU$1.06B | 23.86 | 10.53% | 3.13% | 4.81% | 397.47% | |
60 Neutral | AU$59.94M | 48.04 | 0.57% | 219.20% | -9.06% | ― | |
56 Neutral | AU$2.66B | -95.44 | -8.88% | 0.74% | 19.36% | -286.26% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.07B | -15.17 | -23.54% | 2.63% | -11.19% | -2942.58% | |
50 Neutral | AU$3.79M | 5.45 | -3.26% | ― | -7.68% | ― | |
45 Neutral | AU$796.23M | -1.97 | -64.40% | 5.00% | -9.32% | 59.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:CKF
Collins Foods
8.79
-1.77
-16.79%
AU:DMP
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21.81
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46.61%
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0.13
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35.87%
AU:RFG
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0.86
-0.38
-30.77%
AU:OLI
Oliver's Real Food Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:GYG
Guzman y Gomez Ltd.
25.50
1.57
6.58%
Collins Foods Corporate Events
Collins Foods Issues New Unquoted Employee Share Plan Rights
Oct 14, 2026
Collins Foods Limited, an ASX-listed quick-service restaurant operator, continues to leverage equity-based employee incentive schemes as part of its broader remuneration and retention framework.The company has notified the issue of 213 unquoted ow...
Collins Foods Reports Lapse of Employee Incentive Securities
Oct 14, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has notified the market of the cessation of certain equity-based securities, following the lapse of conditional rights that did not meet required performance or vesting conditions.A total of 4,923 performance rights and 12,21...
Collins Foods Corrects Executive Performance Rights Allocation in ASX Filing
Oct 12, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has updated its notification to the ASX regarding the issue of unquoted equity securities, specifically amending the number of performance rights allocated to key management person Andrew Leyden. The announcement refines a di...
Collins Foods Boosts Director’s Performance Rights Under FY27 Incentive Plan
Oct 12, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has updated the disclosed holdings of director Xavier Marie Olivier Simonet, reflecting an increase in performance rights granted under the company’s FY27 Longer Term Variable Rights Plan. The new allocation raises Simo...
Collins Foods Expands Employee Equity Incentive Schemes
Oct 12, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has notified the market of the issue of new unquoted securities under its employee incentive schemes, including performance rights and ownership share plan rights. The company is issuing 500,498 performance rights and 74,484 ...
Collins Foods Discloses Final Director Interest as Nicki Anderson Departs Board
Sep 3, 2026
Collins Foods has announced that non-executive director Nicki Anderson ceased to be a director of the company effective 1 September 2026. The company disclosed that Anderson, through the Meyer-Anderson Superannuation Fund, holds 8,294 ordinary ful...
Collins Foods Announces Departure of Director Christine Holman
Sep 3, 2026
Collins Foods has announced that non-executive director Christine Francis Holman ceased to be a director of the company effective 1 September 2026. The company disclosed that Holman, through the Holman Investment Group and The Holman Superfund acc...
Collins Foods Investors Back Board Resolutions at 2026 AGM
Sep 1, 2026
Collins Foods reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its 2026 Annual General Meeting were passed by the required majority, underscoring solid investor support for the board’s agenda. One resolution on the notice, Resolution 2, ...
Collins Foods Details Board Composition Ahead of AGM
Aug 31, 2026
Collins Foods operates in the quick-service restaurant sector, focusing on fast-food offerings through its network of franchised and owned outlets. The company’s business centres on providing convenient dining options and maintaining strong ...
Collins Foods posts record FY26 results, doubles down on KFC-led growth
Aug 31, 2026
Collins Foods reported a record year in FY26, delivering all-time high revenue and underlying profit despite challenging economic conditions for quick service restaurants. Strong cash generation allowed the company to reduce net debt and leverage ...
Collins Foods Announces Board Change and Withdraws Director Re-Election Resolution
Aug 17, 2026
Collins Foods has announced that Non-Executive Director Nicki Anderson will retire from the board following the conclusion of its Annual General Meeting on 1 September 2026, withdrawing her nomination for re-election for personal reasons. Chair Ma...
Collins Foods exits Taco Bell to refocus on KFC and books one-off gain
Aug 17, 2026
Collins Foods has completed the transfer of 20 Taco Bell restaurants to Taco Ventures Pty Ltd, marking its full exit from Taco Bell operations in Australia. The move aligns with the company’s sharpened strategy to concentrate capital and man...
Collins Foods Director Increases Stake via Dividend Reinvestment
Aug 13, 2026
Collins Foods has disclosed a minor change in the shareholding of non-executive director Christine Holman, reflecting participation in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. Through the Holman Superfund account, she acquired 526 ordinary ...
Collins Foods Director Lifts Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment Plan
Aug 13, 2026
Collins Foods director Mark John Hawthorne has modestly increased his stake in the company through participation in the firm’s Dividend Reinvestment Plan. The transaction, dated 11 August 2026, saw Hawthorne and an associated entity receive ...
Collins Foods Corrects LTIP Percentage Error Ahead of 2026 AGM
Aug 13, 2026
Collins Foods has corrected a typographical error in its 2026 AGM Notice of Meeting, clarifying that previously disclosed percentages of issued capital tied to Performance Rights under its Long-Term Incentive Plan were understated by a factor of t...
Collins Foods Seeks ASX Quotation for New Dividend Plan Shares
Aug 12, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has applied for quotation of 209,632 new ordinary fully paid shares on the Australian Securities Exchange. The securities were issued on 11 August 2026 under a dividend or distribution plan, reflecting the company’s pra...
Collins Foods Confirms DRP Pricing in Updated Half-Year Dividend Notice
Jul 30, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has updated its earlier dividend notification for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming the dividend relates to the six-month period ended 3 May 2026. The update, lodged on 30 July 2026, specifies key timetabl...
Collins Foods Sets Hybrid AGM as Board Refreshes Audit Leadership
Jul 27, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 1 September in Brisbane, offering a hybrid format that allows shareholders to attend in person or online, submit questions and vote in real time. The company is encouraging pr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.