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Guzman y Gomez Ltd. (GYG) AI Stock Analysis

AU:GYG

Guzman y Gomez Ltd.

(ASX:GYG)

Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:AUD 26.00â–²(2.32% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:08/25/26

The score is driven primarily by solid operating momentum and improving cash generation, but it is held back by the latest net loss and a sharp rise in leverage. Technically, the trend is strong, yet overbought signals increase near-term risk, and valuation is weak due to negative earnings and a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Revenue GrowthThe substantial multi-year increase in revenue shows that GYG has expanded its sales base and continued growing at scale. This creates a broader platform for restaurant productivity, supports ongoing network development, and provides a durable foundation for future operating leverage.
Negative Factors
Higher LeverageThe sharp increase in debt relative to equity has reduced balance-sheet flexibility and materially increased financial risk. Higher leverage can constrain future capital allocation, make the company more sensitive to weaker operating results, and limit its ability to fund growth without additional financing.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. (GYG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%AU:GYG+0.67%EWA+13.51%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
AUD 2.55B
Dividend Yield
0.77%
Average Volume (3M)
384.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-94.1
Beta (1Y)
1.76
Revenue Growth
19.36%
EPS Growth
-286.26%
Country
Australia
Employees
16,000
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Restaurants

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guzman y Gomez Limited operates and manages quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Its restaurants offer Mexican-inspired food through a chain of quick service restaurants, as well as drive thru, delivery, di...

How the Company Makes Money

GYG makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to customers through its restaurant network. Revenue is generated through (1) sales from company-operated restaurants, where GYG retains the full customer transaction value and bears the associa...

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and improved operating profitability in 2026 (EBIT margin up to 16.6%, EBITDA margin 23.6%) support the score, alongside better operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. However, the 2026 net loss (-5.1% net margin) and sharply higher leverage (debt-to-equity up to 1.81x) meaningfully increase risk and reduce overall financial quality.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

52Neutral

Cash Flow

66Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMJun 2026Jun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue520.40M520.40M464.61M342.21M259.04M171.79M
Gross Profit143.11M144.42M350.66M69.78M188.62M126.89M
EBITDA123.00M123.00M69.02M33.29M34.21M27.08M
Net Income-26.70M-26.70M14.48M-13.75M-2.27M3.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets893.37M893.37M783.20M661.80M324.51M248.43M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments170.52M170.52M281.74M294.48M36.50M54.43M
Total Debt441.73M441.73M331.31M239.50M184.72M129.93M
Total Liabilities648.95M648.95M403.07M307.82M236.54M167.33M
Stockholders Equity244.42M244.42M380.12M353.98M87.97M81.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow30.47M30.47M-4.04M9.37M-11.53M-6.76M
Operating Cash Flow86.91M86.91M57.33M42.87M31.13M19.64M
Investing Cash Flow41.98M41.98M-34.55M-311.82M-48.40M-31.70M
Financing Cash Flow-141.49M-141.49M679.00K248.83M-651.00K4.39M

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price25.41

Price Trends

50DMA26.30Negative
100DMA24.12Positive
200DMA21.48Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.06Positive
RSI44.10Neutral
STOCH30.81Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GYG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.29, below the 50-day MA of 26.30, and above the 200-day MA of 21.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GYG.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AU:GYG against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
AU:CKFAU:CKF60NeutralAUD 1.07B24.4110.53%3.10%4.81%397.47%
AU:GYGAU:GYG56NeutralAUD 2.55B-94.11-8.88%0.77%19.36%-286.26%
AU:DMPAU:DMP54NeutralAUD 2.05B-15.26-23.54%2.65%-11.19%-2942.58%
AU:OLIAU:OLI50NeutralAUD 3.24M5.45-3.26%―-7.68%―
AU:RFGAU:RFG50NeutralAUD 51.87M45.810.57%―-9.06%―

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%AU:GYGAU:CKFAU:DMPAU:RFGAU:OLIDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
AU:GYG and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AU:GYGGuzman y Gomez Ltd.25.410.522.10%
AU:CKFCollins Foods Limited9.03-1.18-11.59%
AU:DMPDomino's Pizza Enterprises Limited21.673.8321.48%
AU:RFGRetail Food Group Limited0.82-0.59-41.84%
AU:OLIOliver's Real Food Ltd.0.010.000.00%

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Corporate Events

Guzman y Gomez Updates Investors on Ongoing Share Buy-Back

Oct 28, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has issued an updated notification on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares.The company reported that a total of 476,871 shares had been repurchased prior to the previous trading day, with...

Guzman y Gomez Updates ASX on Ongoing Daily Share Buy-Back

Oct 27, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program involving its ordinary fully paid shares. The latest daily report shows a cumulative total of 438,871 shares repurchased prior to the...

Guzman y Gomez Reports Ongoing On‑Market Share Buy‑Back Activity

Oct 26, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited operates in the fast-casual dining sector, specialising in Mexican-inspired cuisine served through restaurants and takeaway formats. Listed on the ASX under the ticker GYG, its ordinary fully paid shares are the main vehicle fo...

Guzman y Gomez Director Trims Indirect Stake in $89m Block Trade

Oct 21, 2026

Guzman y Gomez has disclosed a significant change in director Tom Cowan’s relevant interests following a major share sale executed by investment vehicle TDM Growth Partners. TDM, in which Cowan holds 33 percent of voting shares and which contro...

Mitsubishi UFJ exits substantial holder status in Guzman y Gomez

Oct 20, 2026

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., a major Japanese financial institution, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Guzman y Gomez Limited. The change follows a series of transactions involving the sale of Guzman y Gome...

Mitsubishi UFJ exits substantial holder status in Guzman y Gomez

Oct 14, 2026

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has lodged a Form 605 notice stating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Guzman y Gomez Limited. The change follows a series of small share transactions on 9 October 2026 involving entities controlled by First S...

Guzman y Gomez expands ASX-quoted share base through new issuances

Oct 14, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. operates in the fast-casual restaurant industry, focusing on Mexican-inspired food and related quick-service offerings. The company is listed on the ASX under the ticker GYG, giving investors equity exposure to its network of outl...

Guzman y Gomez Trims Potential Equity as 16,000 Options Lapse

Oct 14, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited operates in the fast-casual restaurant industry, focusing on Mexican-inspired food and related quick-service offerings. The company is listed on the ASX under the ticker GYG, giving investors exposure to a growing branded food...

Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares

Oct 14, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited, trading on the ASX as GYG, participates in the Australian equity market through ordinary fully paid shares. Its listing structure allows investors to buy and sell ownership stakes in the company via standard market mechanisms....

Guzman y Gomez Cancels Shares Following On-Market Buy-Back

Oct 14, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has cancelled 19,500 ordinary fully paid shares following completion of an on-market buy-back, as disclosed in an Appendix 3H notification to the ASX dated October 14, 2026. The reduction in issued capital marginally enhances rema...

Major Shareholder Exits Guzman y Gomez Stake in $35 Million Block Trades

Oct 13, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has disclosed that investor Gaetano Alfred Gerrard Russo has ceased to be a substantial shareholder following the sale of his stake in the company. Russo offloaded a total of 1,394,250 fully paid ordinary shares via off-market...

Guzman y Gomez Director Guy Russo Cuts Stake in $35.6m Block Trade

Oct 13, 2026

Guzman y Gomez director Guy Russo has reduced his shareholding via an off-market block trade, selling a total of 1,394,250 fully paid ordinary shares for $35.6 million at $25.50 per share. Following the transaction, undertaken for personal financial...

Major Institutional Investor Group Ceases Substantial Holding in Guzman y Gomez

Oct 13, 2026

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and its global asset management arm First Sentier Investors have lodged a Form 605 notice stating they have ceased to be substantial holders in Guzman y Gomez Limited as of 9 October 2026. The filing, signed by company...

Guzman y Gomez sets hybrid 2026 AGM with expanded online access

Oct 8, 2026

Guzman y Gomez has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 3:00pm AEDT on 12 November 2026, offering both in-person attendance at law firm Gilbert + Tobin’s Sydney offices and virtual participation. The company will transact standard AGM...

Guzman y Gomez Extends On-Market Share Buyback Program

Oct 8, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has extended its existing on-market share buyback program for its ordinary fully paid shares, as disclosed in an updated Appendix 3C lodged with the ASX. The extension signals ongoing capital management efforts by the company,...

Guzman y Gomez lifts Q1 sales, confirms outlook and extends buyback

Oct 8, 2026

Guzman y Gomez reported an 18.8% rise in Q1 FY27 network sales to $387.5 million, driven by 7.1% comparable sales growth and three new Australian restaurant openings. Demand was broad-based across formats and dayparts, aided by new menu items such as...

Mitsubishi UFJ exits substantial holder position in Guzman y Gomez

Oct 7, 2026

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., a major Japanese financial institution, has lodged a Form 605 notice confirming it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Guzman y Gomez Limited. The change follows a series of transactions in late July 2026 in...

First Sentier Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Guzman y Gomez

Oct 6, 2026

First Sentier Group Limited and its related entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Guzman y Gomez Ltd., effective 2 October 2026. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, details the en...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Ongoing Share Buy-Back Activity

Sep 30, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd., a fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator listed on the ASX under the code GYG, provides investors with exposure to the quick-service dining segment in Australia. The company’s operations centre on branded outlets serving M...

Guzman y Gomez Reports Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back Activity

Sep 30, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has issued an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for ordinary fully paid shares. The company reported that a cumulative 262,955 shares had been repurchased prior to the previo...

Guzman y Gomez Provides Daily Update on Ongoing Share Buy-Back

Sep 27, 2026

Guzman y Gomez has updated the market on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program, confirming that the total number of ordinary fully paid shares repurchased reached 202,455 before the most recent trading day. The company also reported that an ad...

Guzman y Gomez Updates ASX on Daily Share Buy-Back Activity

Sep 25, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd., a fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator listed on the ASX under ticker GYG, relies on ordinary fully paid shares as its main equity instrument for investors. The company’s market presence is supported by active management...

Guzman y Gomez updates market on ongoing on‑market share buy-back

Sep 23, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program, confirming that a total of 156,950 ordinary fully paid shares had been repurchased prior to the latest reporting day. The company...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back

Sep 22, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid securities. The update, dated 23 September 2026, reports that a total of 147,250 shares had been...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back

Sep 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited, a fast-casual Mexican food chain listed on the ASX under ticker GYG, offers ordinary fully paid shares to investors. The company leverages its public listing to support growth in the quick-service restaurant market while activ...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Daily Share Buy-Back Activity

Sep 17, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd., a fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator listed on the ASX under ticker GYG, trades ordinary fully paid shares and serves customers seeking quick-service dining. Its presence on the public markets positions the group to use shar...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Investors on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back

Sep 16, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has issued an updated notification regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program, covering ordinary fully paid shares under the ASX code GYG. The latest daily update, dated 17 September 2026, reports that the company b...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Daily Progress of Share Buy-Back Program

Sep 15, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has disclosed an update to its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares traded under ASX code GYG. The fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator continues to actively repurchase stock as part of its cap...

Guzman y Gomez Begins On-Market Buy-Back of ASX-Listed Shares

Sep 14, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has issued an updated notification regarding its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares traded under the ASX code GYG. The latest daily disclosure shows that 19,500 shares were repurchased on the pr...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Director Tom Cowan’s Revised Share Interests

Sep 4, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has reported a change in director Tom Cowan’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting an adjustment in the shareholdings managed through associated investment entities. The notice details that 3,596,321 or...

Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares

Sep 2, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has applied for quotation on the ASX of 152,090 ordinary fully paid shares issued on 2 September 2026, under its ticker GYG. The additional securities, arising from the exercise of options or conversion of other instruments, will...

Guzman y Gomez expands share capital through option exercise

Sep 2, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has issued 152,090 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of unlisted options, expanding its share capital without a prospectus under provisions of the Corporations Act 2001. The company affirmed ongoing compliance w...

Guzman y Gomez Updates Director Share Interests After Board Changes

Aug 25, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited is a fast-casual Mexican restaurant company listed on the ASX, with a share register that includes substantial holdings overseen by TDM Growth Partners and related investment and superannuation entities. The company’s cap...

Guzman y Gomez Names New Director and Discloses Shareholdings

Aug 25, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has announced the appointment of George Wahby as a director, effective 21 August 2026. The initial director’s interest notice filed with the ASX discloses Wahby’s indirect beneficial holdings in the company through...

Guzman y Gomez Discloses Shareholdings of Newly Appointed Director

Aug 25, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has announced the appointment of Guy Fowler as a director, effective 21 August 2026. Fowler holds 50,000 shares in his own name and has a beneficial interest in a further 338,224 ordinary shares held through Tigger Nominees Pty...

Guzman y Gomez Issues Over 1.2 Million Unquoted Employee Options

Aug 21, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,223,282 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme, with various exercise prices and expiry dates. The new options, which will not be quoted on the ASX, expand the company&#82...

Guzman y Gomez Marks 20 Years With Strong FY26 Growth and AI-Led Operations Push

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez marked its 20th anniversary by highlighting its evolution from a single Sydney store into a 284-restaurant network across Australia, Singapore and Japan, built on a commitment to clean, flavourful Mexican-inspired fast food and a value...

Guzman y Gomez Sets Governance and Diversity Benchmarks in FY2026 Statement

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has released its FY2026 Corporate Governance Statement, detailing how its board and management structures align with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s fourth-edition principles and recommendations. The statement conf...

Guzman y Gomez posts record earnings as it exits U.S. and doubles down on Australian growth

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez reported record underlying earnings for FY26, driven by its Australian fast-casual Mexican restaurant network, which grew sales 17.9% to about $1.4 billion and expanded margins despite restrained menu price increases. The group now ope...

Guzman y Gomez Declares AUD 0.406 Dividend for FY2026

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Limited has declared a dividend of AUD 0.406 per ordinary fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The distribution will be made to shareholders on the register as of 16 September 2026, with the shares trading e...

Guzman y Gomez Launches On-Market Share Buy-Back

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez Ltd., the ASX-listed fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator, is known for its quick-service offerings and branded presence in Australia’s competitive dining market. Its ordinary fully paid shares trade under the GYG ticker, prov...

Guzman y Gomez Lifts Core Earnings but Books Loss on U.S. Exit

Aug 20, 2026

Guzman y Gomez has released its 2026 full-year report, showing strong growth in its core continuing operations, with revenue up 22% to $520.4 million and underlying NPAT rising 30% to $53.4 million, while fully franked dividends for the year increase...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 25, 2026