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Guzman y Gomez Ltd.
(Sydney:GYG)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
AU$26.00
â–¼(-11.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/25/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating momentum and improving cash generation, but it is held back by the latest net loss and a sharp rise in leverage. Technically, the trend is strong, yet overbought signals increase near-term risk, and valuation is weak due to negative earnings and a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Expansion
GYG has expanded revenue more than fourfold since 2021 while still delivering year-over-year growth in 2026. This indicates continued network scale and customer demand, supporting a larger operating base and creating potential for sustained earnings growth as the restaurant system matures.
Negative Factors
Sharp Leverage Increase
The substantial rise in debt and leverage has reduced balance-sheet flexibility and increased financial risk. Higher obligations may constrain future investment choices, make the company more sensitive to weaker trading conditions, and leave less capacity to absorb setbacks while the business continues expanding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Expansion
GYG has expanded revenue more than fourfold since 2021 while still delivering year-over-year growth in 2026. This indicates continued network scale and customer demand, supporting a larger operating base and creating potential for sustained earnings growth as the restaurant system matures.
Read all positive factors
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. (GYG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.55B
Dividend Yield0.78%
Average Volume (3M)353.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.71
Revenue Growth19.36%
EPS Growth-286.26%
CountryAU
Employees16,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding99,742,940
10 Day Avg. Volume228,711
30 Day Avg. Volume353,184
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)8.65
Price to Sales (P/S)4.06
P/FCF Ratio69.39
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$27.19Price Target Upside-7.60% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$637.97M
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Guzman y Gomez Limited operates and manages quick service restaurants in Australia, Singapore, Japan, and the United States. Its restaurants offer Mexican-inspired food through a chain of quick service restaurants, as well as drive thru, delivery,...
How the Company Makes Money
GYG makes money primarily by selling food and beverages to customers through its restaurant network. Revenue is generated through (1) sales from company-operated restaurants, where GYG retains the full customer transaction value and bears the asso...
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 520.40M | 464.61M | 342.21M | 259.04M | 171.79M |
| Gross Profit | 144.42M | 350.66M | 69.78M | 188.62M | 126.89M |
| EBITDA | 123.00M | 69.02M | 33.29M | 34.21M | 27.08M |
| Net Income | -26.70M | 14.48M | -13.75M | -2.27M | 3.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 893.37M | 783.20M | 661.80M | 324.51M | 248.43M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.52M | 281.74M | 294.48M | 36.50M | 54.43M |
| Total Debt | 441.73M | 331.31M | 239.50M | 184.72M | 129.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 648.95M | 403.07M | 307.82M | 236.54M | 167.33M |
| Stockholders Equity | 244.42M | 380.12M | 353.98M | 87.97M | 81.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.47M | -4.04M | 9.37M | -11.53M | -6.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.91M | 57.33M | 42.87M | 31.13M | 19.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 41.98M | -34.55M | -311.82M | -48.40M | -31.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -141.49M | 679.00K | 248.83M | -651.00K | 4.39M |
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Technical Analysis
Neutral
29.43
Price Trends
24.70
Positive
21.85
Positive
21.05
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
44.13
Neutral
8.72
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GYG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.16, above the 50-day MA of 24.70, and above the 200-day MA of 21.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:GYG.
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | AU$70.85M | 62.57 | 0.57% | 219.20% | -9.06% | ― | |
57 Neutral | AU$951.08M | 21.70 | 10.53% | 3.49% | 4.81% | 397.47% | |
56 Neutral | AU$2.55B | -94.52 | -8.88% | 1.87% | 19.36% | -286.26% | |
53 Neutral | AU$1.79B | -13.33 | -23.54% | 3.04% | -11.19% | -2942.58% | |
50 Neutral | AU$3.24M | 5.45 | -3.26% | ― | -7.68% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:GYG
Guzman y Gomez Ltd.
25.52
-0.90
-3.41%
AU:CKF
Collins Foods
8.03
-2.06
-20.40%
AU:DMP
Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited
18.93
4.94
35.30%
AU:RFG
Retail Food Group
1.12
-0.28
-20.00%
AU:OLI
Oliver's Real Food Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Corporate Events
Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Director Tom Cowan’s Revised Share Interests
Sep 4, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has reported a change in director Tom Cowan’s interests in the company’s securities, reflecting an adjustment in the shareholdings managed through associated investment entities. The notice details that 3,596,321...
Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Shares
Sep 2, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has applied for quotation on the ASX of 152,090 ordinary fully paid shares issued on 2 September 2026, under its ticker GYG. The additional securities, arising from the exercise of options or conversion of other instruments, wi...
Guzman y Gomez expands share capital through option exercise
Sep 2, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has issued 152,090 fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise of unlisted options, expanding its share capital without a prospectus under provisions of the Corporations Act 2001. The company affirmed ongoing complianc...
Guzman y Gomez Updates Director Share Interests After Board Changes
Aug 25, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited is a fast-casual Mexican restaurant company listed on the ASX, with a share register that includes substantial holdings overseen by TDM Growth Partners and related investment and superannuation entities. The company’s ...
Guzman y Gomez Names New Director and Discloses Shareholdings
Aug 25, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has announced the appointment of George Wahby as a director, effective 21 August 2026. The initial director’s interest notice filed with the ASX discloses Wahby’s indirect beneficial holdings in the company throu...
Guzman y Gomez Discloses Shareholdings of Newly Appointed Director
Aug 25, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has announced the appointment of Guy Fowler as a director, effective 21 August 2026. Fowler holds 50,000 shares in his own name and has a beneficial interest in a further 338,224 ordinary shares held through Tigger Nominees ...
Guzman y Gomez Issues Over 1.2 Million Unquoted Employee Options
Aug 21, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has notified the market of the issue of 1,223,282 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme, with various exercise prices and expiry dates. The new options, which will not be quoted on the ASX, expand the company&...
Guzman y Gomez Marks 20 Years With Strong FY26 Growth and AI-Led Operations Push
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez marked its 20th anniversary by highlighting its evolution from a single Sydney store into a 284-restaurant network across Australia, Singapore and Japan, built on a commitment to clean, flavourful Mexican-inspired fast food and a va...
Guzman y Gomez Sets Governance and Diversity Benchmarks in FY2026 Statement
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has released its FY2026 Corporate Governance Statement, detailing how its board and management structures align with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s fourth-edition principles and recommendations. The statement c...
Guzman y Gomez posts record earnings as it exits U.S. and doubles down on Australian growth
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez reported record underlying earnings for FY26, driven by its Australian fast-casual Mexican restaurant network, which grew sales 17.9% to about $1.4 billion and expanded margins despite restrained menu price increases. The group now ...
Guzman y Gomez Declares AUD 0.406 Dividend for FY2026
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has declared a dividend of AUD 0.406 per ordinary fully paid share for the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026. The distribution will be made to shareholders on the register as of 16 September 2026, with the shares tradin...
Guzman y Gomez Launches On-Market Share Buy-Back
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Ltd., the ASX-listed fast-casual Mexican restaurant operator, is known for its quick-service offerings and branded presence in Australia’s competitive dining market. Its ordinary fully paid shares trade under the GYG ticker, p...
Guzman y Gomez Lifts Core Earnings but Books Loss on U.S. Exit
Aug 20, 2026
Guzman y Gomez has released its 2026 full-year report, showing strong growth in its core continuing operations, with revenue up 22% to $520.4 million and underlying NPAT rising 30% to $53.4 million, while fully franked dividends for the year incre...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Guzman y Gomez
Jul 28, 2026
State Street Corporation, through several asset management and trust subsidiaries, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Guzman y Gomez Ltd., effective 24 July 2026. The filing, made under Australia’s Corp...
Citi Group Entities Exit Substantial Holder Status in Guzman Y Gomez
Jul 22, 2026
Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited and related Citi group entities have disclosed that they ceased to be a substantial holder of Guzman Y Gomez Ltd. on 20 July 2026. The change follows an earlier notice in June and reflects a series of...
JPMorgan Group Drops Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Guzman y Gomez
Jul 14, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have notified Guzman y Gomez Ltd. that they no longer hold a substantial stake in the fast‑casual Mexican restaurant operator listed in Australia. The exit from substantial holder status follows various...
Aware Super exits substantial holding in Guzman y Gomez
Jul 14, 2026
Aware Super Pty Ltd, as trustee of Aware Super, has filed a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Guzman y Gomez Limited as of 9 July 2026. The change in its relevant interest in the company’s voting securities reflects a r...
Guzman y Gomez Announces Change in Company Secretary Role
Jul 10, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has announced the immediate resignation of Ms Lucy Rowe from Automic as Joint Company Secretary, marking a change in its corporate governance team. Ms Claudine Tarabay will continue as Company Secretary and assume responsibi...
Guzman y Gomez Options Lapse Clarifies Issued Capital Position
Jul 9, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of certain options, with a total of 202,500 GYGAA options expiring after conditions for their exercise were not met or became incapable of being satisfied in April 2026. The lapse of the...
Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Newly Issued Shares
Jul 9, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has applied to the ASX for quotation of a series of ordinary fully paid shares under its ticker GYG, covering multiple small issuances made between April and June 2026. The application aggregates these issuances, which total se...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Guzman y Gomez
Jul 1, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have filed a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Guzman y Gomez Ltd. The change indicates their collective voting interest in the restaurant compan...
Aware Super Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Guzman y Gomez
Jun 26, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has disclosed that Aware Super Pty Ltd, as trustee of Aware Super, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company. The change was formalised through a statutory notice under Australia’s Corporations Act, ind...
State Street units exit substantial holding in Guzman y Gomez
Jun 25, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Guzman y Gomez Ltd as of 23 June 2026. The filing indicates that their collective relevant in...
Guzman y Gomez Cancels 846,848 Shares After On-Market Buy-Back
Jun 23, 2026
Guzman y Gomez has cancelled 846,848 ordinary fully paid shares following an on‑market buy-back completed on 22 June 2026. The reduction in issued capital, disclosed via an Appendix 3H notification, signals active capital management that may...
Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Ongoing Share Buy-Back Activity
Jun 16, 2026
Guzman y Gomez Limited has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid shares. The update confirms that a total of 4,994,929 shares had been repurchased prior to the most recent...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.