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AGL Energy
(OTC:AGLXY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(13.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is supported by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook around liquidity, cash conversion and dividend intent. It is held back by weaker cash flow execution (negative free cash flow in 2025–2026) and technical indicators that are near overbought despite a modestly positive trend.
Positive Factors
Operating performance and cash conversion
Strong EBITDA and operating cash conversion indicate that AGL’s integrated generation and retail model is producing resilient underlying earnings, supporting reinvestment, debt servicing and shareholder distributions over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow suggests that capital requirements are absorbing reported profitability. If sustained, this could increase reliance on debt or asset recycling and constrain investment capacity, dividends and balance-sheet flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating performance and cash conversion
Strong EBITDA and operating cash conversion indicate that AGL’s integrated generation and retail model is producing resilient underlying earnings, supporting reinvestment, debt servicing and shareholder distributions over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
AGL Energy (AGLXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.04B
Dividend Yield5.63%
Average Volume (3M)1.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth-1.14%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees3,735
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding672,747,250
10 Day Avg. Volume432
30 Day Avg. Volume1,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio-19.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.52B
AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGL Energy Limited offers energy and a range of related services to a diverse customer base throughout Australia, including residential users, small and large businesses, and wholesale clients. The company's activities are structured into three pr...
How the Company Makes Money
AGL primarily makes money through a combination of energy retailing and electricity generation. On the retail side, it earns revenue by selling electricity and natural gas to end customers under contracted pricing plans; its margins generally refl...
AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and strategic result: EBITDA growth, strong cash generation, improved customer metrics, robust battery and flexible-asset performance, successful monetisation (Tilt) and disciplined capital allocation. Key near-term headwinds include a marginal decline in underlying NPAT due to higher depreciation and financing costs, a material extension and cost increase to the retail transformation program, softer generation volumes in a mild year, and rising gas costs as legacy contracts roll off. Overall, the positives (cash strength, balance sheet, customer and asset performance, clear pipeline and realised divestment gains) outweigh the negatives, though investors should model the deferred retail benefits, depreciation uplift and gas cost dynamics into near-term earnings.Positive Updates
Solid EBITDA and Cash Generation
Underlying EBITDA of $2.1 billion (up 2% year-on-year) with strong operating cash flow and a 97% cash conversion rate (excluding margin calls, rehabilitation and timing of bill relief). Underlying operating free cash flow was $110 million higher year-on-year.
Negative Updates
Underlying Net Profit Pressure
Underlying NPAT was marginally lower year-on-year, driven by an anticipated increase in depreciation and amortisation and higher finance costs. Depreciation and amortisation expected to increase by roughly $50 million in FY'27.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid EBITDA and Cash Generation
Underlying EBITDA of $2.1 billion (up 2% year-on-year) with strong operating cash flow and a 97% cash conversion rate (excluding margin calls, rehabilitation and timing of bill relief). Underlying operating free cash flow was $110 million higher year-on-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGL’s FY‑27 guidance targets a higher dividend payout ratio of 55–60% of underlying NPAT (expected fully franked), within the company policy of 50–75%, after a FY‑26 full‑year dividend of $0.50/share (final $0.26) and a 53.3% payout; management says FY‑27 underlying EBITDA should reflect stabilizing consumer margins, a full year contribution from the Liddell battery and lower operating costs from its $50m p.a. cost‑out program (of which $30m was delivered in FY‑26), partially offset by higher gas costs as legacy contracts roll off and lower wholesale prices rolling through contracts, and FY‑27 underlying NPAT guidance incorporates ~+$50m of higher depreciation & amortisation and ~–$30m of lower finance costs; FY‑27 capex guidance is roughly $800m growth and ~ $700m sustaining (including ~ $500m on the thermal fleet), the business is largely hedged for FY‑27, cash conversion was 97% in FY‑26 and liquidity remains strong (~$1.6bn), while the retail transformation is extended by up to 12 months with an incremental $100–150m cost (full benefits unchanged: $70–90m p.a. pretax from FY‑30, with $25m already delivered).AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 13.29B | 13.84B | 13.12B | 14.16B | 13.22B |
| Gross Profit | 1.84B | 2.93B | 3.25B | 1.15B | 1.09B |
| EBITDA | 2.36B | 1.00B | 2.06B | 1.50B | 2.11B |
| Net Income | 739.48M | -98.00M | 711.00M | -1.26B | 860.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.98B | 16.20B | 15.66B | 15.24B | 19.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 710.04M | 332.00M | 971.00M | 376.00M | 341.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.03B | 3.31B | 2.73B | 2.88B | 2.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.71B | 11.35B | 10.23B | 10.12B | 12.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.28B | 4.86B | 5.43B | 5.12B | 6.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -283.66M | -284.00M | 1.40B | 288.00M | 591.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.12B | 841.00M | 2.24B | 912.00M | 1.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -743.39M | -1.56B | -926.00M | -729.00M | -885.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -376.59M | 99.00M | -530.00M | -159.00M | -303.00M |
AGL Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $8.15B | 12.18 | 13.15% | 3.95% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
67 Neutral | $4.04B | 7.50 | 15.10% | 5.63% | -1.14% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $49.80B | 24.77 | 41.48% | 0.61% | -20.55% | -6.51% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
61 Neutral | $4.26B | 24.82 | 5.92% | 3.86% | 10.69% | -24.15% | |
50 Neutral | $23.85B | 29.70 | 25.38% | 1.64% | 12.70% | 54.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.