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UGI
(NYSE:UGI)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(2.60% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/03/26
UGI’s score is driven primarily by stable current profitability and notably improved recent cash generation, partially offset by historically volatile revenue/earnings and a still debt-heavy balance sheet. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), but technical indicators point to weak near-term momentum. The latest earnings call was constructive on guidance and longer-term targets, though near-term weather and AmeriGas volume weakness remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility rate-base growth
The proposed rate increase should expand regulated utility earnings while supporting pipeline replacement and safety investment. Customer additions further strengthen the rate base, creating a more durable growth path than relying solely on weather-sensitive volumes or commodity-market conditions.
Negative Factors
Debt-heavy capital structure
Although leverage has improved, the debt-heavy structure still limits financial flexibility and leaves more earnings exposed to interest costs. Elevated obligations can constrain capital allocation and make it harder to absorb weaker operating results or fund expansion during a downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility rate-base growth
The proposed rate increase should expand regulated utility earnings while supporting pipeline replacement and safety investment. Customer additions further strengthen the rate base, creating a more durable growth path than relying solely on weather-sensitive volumes or commodity-market conditions.
Read all positive factors
UGI (UGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.96B
Dividend Yield4.04%
Average Volume (3M)1.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.9
Beta (1Y)0.07
Revenue Growth-0.50%
EPS Growth60.66%
CountryUS
Employees9,400
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.12
Shares Outstanding214,494,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,819,462
30 Day Avg. Volume1,880,771
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio18.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.25Price Target Upside13.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)3.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.75B
UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UGI Corporation functions as a comprehensive energy company, actively involved in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of various energy products, alongside offering related services. Its operational footprint extends across bo...
How the Company Makes Money
UGI primarily makes money through (1) regulated utility earnings and (2) propane distribution margins, with additional contribution from energy marketing and other energy infrastructure-related activities. In its regulated natural gas utility busi...
UGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and financial trajectory with several important wins — utilities rate-case progress, heavy capital focus on natural gas, meaningful AmeriGas safety and service improvements, substantial deleveraging and international cash generation. These positives were tempered by near-term headwinds: a weaker quarter (EBIT down), AmeriGas volume declines driven by warmer weather and attrition, the impact of prior divestitures on international volumes, and a year-to-date EPS decline driven by absence of tax credits and higher interest expense. Management reiterated guidance and emphasized stabilization and preparatory actions for the upcoming heating season, indicating confidence in recovery and longer-term growth.Positive Updates
Year-to-Date Reportable Segment EBIT and Resilience
Total reportable segment EBIT was $1.187 billion year-to-date, modestly ahead of the prior year period despite portfolio divestitures and warmer weather, demonstrating underlying business resilience.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EBIT Decline
Total reportable segment EBIT fell to $58M in the third quarter from $72M a year earlier (Q3 change: -$14M), reflecting warmer weather and weaker propane volumes.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-to-Date Reportable Segment EBIT and Resilience
Total reportable segment EBIT was $1.187 billion year-to-date, modestly ahead of the prior year period despite portfolio divestitures and warmer weather, demonstrating underlying business resilience.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.75–$2.90 and maintained a 5%–7% consolidated EPS CAGR target through 2029, while reporting year-to-date adjusted diluted EPS of $3.17 (vs. $3.55 prior), year-to-date reportable segment EBIT of $1.187 billion and Q3 segment EBIT of $58 million (vs. $72 million prior) with segment moves of Utilities +$10M, Midstream & Marketing +$3M, UGI International −$2M and AmeriGas −$25M; they cited roughly $0.05 of weather headwind year-to-date ($0.11 vs. normal), directed ~76% of capex to natural gas and added >8,500 new heating customers, expect a two-step $65 million gas rate increase (~$40M effective Oct 2026, ~$25M Oct 2027) with stay-out through Jan 2029 and a minimum $1.5M annual Operation Share contribution, plan meaningful AmeriGas distributions to the parent in 2027 as AmeriGas generates >$100M of free cash flow and has reduced net debt by ≈$270M (AmeriGas leverage 4.3x, consolidated leverage 3.8x), lowered borrowing costs by ≈$30M annualized and saved ≈$4M at UGI Energy Services, and highlighted UGI International margins/returns (EBITDA margin ~23%, free cash flow conversion ~95%, ROCE in the mid‑teens) along with AmeriGas operational gains (lost time injuries −50%, recordable injuries −44%, out‑of‑gas events −21%, zero fills −17%, NPS +63%).UGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.30B | 7.29B | 7.21B | 8.93B | 10.11B | 7.45B |
| Gross Profit | 3.41B | 3.63B | 3.68B | 1.99B | 4.13B | 4.83B |
| EBITDA | 1.54B | 1.67B | 1.28B | -926.00M | 2.23B | 2.80B |
| Net Income | 671.00M | 678.00M | 269.00M | -1.50B | 1.07B | 1.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.63B | 15.46B | 15.10B | 15.40B | 17.57B | 16.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 476.00M | 355.00M | 213.00M | 241.00M | 405.00M | 855.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.71B | 7.56B | 7.14B | 7.25B | 7.00B | 6.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.41B | 10.68B | 10.74B | 11.01B | 11.50B | 11.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.21B | 4.78B | 4.34B | 4.39B | 6.07B | 5.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 187.00M | 390.00M | 386.00M | 133.00M | -88.00M | 791.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.06B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.11B | 716.00M | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -669.00M | -699.00M | -792.00M | -1.08B | -1.01B | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -227.00M | -406.00M | -506.00M | -168.00M | -51.00M | 166.00M |
UGI Technical Analysis
Positive
38.01
Price Trends
36.75
Positive
35.81
Positive
35.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
52.29
Neutral
74.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.95, above the 50-day MA of 36.75, and above the 200-day MA of 35.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGI.
UGI Risk Analysis
UGI disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $5.80B | 19.12 | 7.73% | 3.66% | 2.51% | 0.05% | |
66 Neutral | $5.20B | 14.08 | 14.42% | 3.76% | 7.08% | -11.82% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.10B | 11.72 | 12.89% | 3.01% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
64 Neutral | $7.96B | 11.90 | 13.15% | 4.04% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
60 Neutral | $4.56B | 15.56 | 8.42% | 3.74% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
58 Neutral | $4.64B | 8.72 | 15.87% | 4.21% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
UGI
UGI
37.12
6.64
21.78%
BKH
Black Hills
76.08
18.29
31.66%
SR
Spire
78.42
-1.20
-1.51%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
51.21
7.74
17.81%
SWX
Southwest Gas
84.14
9.11
12.15%
OGS
ONE Gas
72.50
-4.56
-5.92%
UGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI’s Mountaineer Gas Issues New Senior Notes
Positive
Oct 2, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Mountaineer Gas Company privately placed $50 million of unsecured, unsubordinated senior notes, split between $30 million of 5.95% Series H Notes maturing in 2038 and $20 million of 6.05% Series I Notes maturing in 2041, fol...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Utilities Privately Places Senior Unsecured Notes Offering
Neutral
Aug 17, 2026
On August 11, 2026, UGI Utilities privately placed $125 million of 5.45% unsecured senior notes maturing August 15, 2031, with funding completed the same day and interest payable semiannually. The notes rank pari passu with existing unsecured debt...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
UGI Introduces Unified Executive Short-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 4, 2026, UGI Corporation’s Compensation and Talent Development Committee approved a new Executive Short-Term Incentive Bonus Plan, effective October 1, 2026, replacing all prior executive annual bonus plans across UGI and its parti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UGI Narrows Losses, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance and Strategy
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
UGI reported results for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026, narrowing its quarterly GAAP and adjusted losses per share compared with the prior year while year‑to‑date adjusted EPS declined modestly, and segment EBIT held ste...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UGI Energy Services Updates Term Loan Pricing Terms
Neutral
Jul 7, 2026
On June 30, 2026, UGI Energy Services, LLC amended its existing term loan credit agreement originally dated August 13, 2019, by entering into a Fourth Amendment with HSBC Bank USA, N.A. and other lenders. The amendment sets the applicable interest...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.