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UGI
(NYSE:UGI)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-3.56% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
UGI’s score is supported primarily by stable profitability with improving cash flow and an attractive valuation (low P/E and ~4.4% yield), plus a constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance and deleveraging progress. The main drag is weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD and very low RSI/Stoch), alongside still-elevated leverage and a history of revenue/earnings volatility.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow near $800M provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt paydown. Over 2–6 months this underpins deleveraging, funds safety/capex programs and cushions seasonal earnings swings, improving financial flexibility versus peers.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and debt-heavy structure
A consistently debt-heavy capital structure constrains strategic flexibility and raises sensitivity to interest costs or earnings shocks. Even with recent refinancings, elevated leverage limits optionality for M&A or larger buybacks and increases credit risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow near $800M provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt paydown. Over 2–6 months this underpins deleveraging, funds safety/capex programs and cushions seasonal earnings swings, improving financial flexibility versus peers.
Read all positive factors
UGI (UGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.54B
Dividend Yield4.27%
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth-0.50%
EPS Growth60.66%
CountryUS
Employees9,400
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.12
Shares Outstanding214,494,960
10 Day Avg. Volume1,092,261
30 Day Avg. Volume1,325,449
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio18.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.00Price Target Upside12.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.36B
UGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UGI Corporation functions as a comprehensive energy company, actively involved in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of various energy products, alongside offering related services. Its operational footprint extends across bo...
How the Company Makes Money
UGI makes money primarily by selling energy products and charging for energy delivery and related services across regulated and non-regulated businesses. (1) Regulated natural gas utility: UGI earns revenue from delivering natural gas to customers...
UGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and financial trajectory with several important wins — utilities rate-case progress, heavy capital focus on natural gas, meaningful AmeriGas safety and service improvements, substantial deleveraging and international cash generation. These positives were tempered by near-term headwinds: a weaker quarter (EBIT down), AmeriGas volume declines driven by warmer weather and attrition, the impact of prior divestitures on international volumes, and a year-to-date EPS decline driven by absence of tax credits and higher interest expense. Management reiterated guidance and emphasized stabilization and preparatory actions for the upcoming heating season, indicating confidence in recovery and longer-term growth.Positive Updates
Year-to-Date Reportable Segment EBIT and Resilience
Total reportable segment EBIT was $1.187 billion year-to-date, modestly ahead of the prior year period despite portfolio divestitures and warmer weather, demonstrating underlying business resilience.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EBIT Decline
Total reportable segment EBIT fell to $58M in the third quarter from $72M a year earlier (Q3 change: -$14M), reflecting warmer weather and weaker propane volumes.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-to-Date Reportable Segment EBIT and Resilience
Total reportable segment EBIT was $1.187 billion year-to-date, modestly ahead of the prior year period despite portfolio divestitures and warmer weather, demonstrating underlying business resilience.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.75–$2.90 and maintained a 5%–7% consolidated EPS CAGR target through 2029, while reporting year-to-date adjusted diluted EPS of $3.17 (vs. $3.55 prior), year-to-date reportable segment EBIT of $1.187 billion and Q3 segment EBIT of $58 million (vs. $72 million prior) with segment moves of Utilities +$10M, Midstream & Marketing +$3M, UGI International −$2M and AmeriGas −$25M; they cited roughly $0.05 of weather headwind year-to-date ($0.11 vs. normal), directed ~76% of capex to natural gas and added >8,500 new heating customers, expect a two-step $65 million gas rate increase (~$40M effective Oct 2026, ~$25M Oct 2027) with stay-out through Jan 2029 and a minimum $1.5M annual Operation Share contribution, plan meaningful AmeriGas distributions to the parent in 2027 as AmeriGas generates >$100M of free cash flow and has reduced net debt by ≈$270M (AmeriGas leverage 4.3x, consolidated leverage 3.8x), lowered borrowing costs by ≈$30M annualized and saved ≈$4M at UGI Energy Services, and highlighted UGI International margins/returns (EBITDA margin ~23%, free cash flow conversion ~95%, ROCE in the mid‑teens) along with AmeriGas operational gains (lost time injuries −50%, recordable injuries −44%, out‑of‑gas events −21%, zero fills −17%, NPS +63%).UGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.30B | 7.29B | 7.21B | 8.93B | 10.11B | 7.45B |
| Gross Profit | 3.41B | 3.63B | 3.68B | 1.99B | 4.13B | 4.83B |
| EBITDA | 1.54B | 1.67B | 1.28B | -926.00M | 2.23B | 2.80B |
| Net Income | 671.00M | 678.00M | 269.00M | -1.50B | 1.07B | 1.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.63B | 15.46B | 15.10B | 15.40B | 17.57B | 16.72B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 476.00M | 355.00M | 213.00M | 241.00M | 405.00M | 855.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.71B | 7.56B | 7.14B | 7.25B | 7.00B | 6.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.41B | 10.68B | 10.74B | 11.01B | 11.50B | 11.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.21B | 4.78B | 4.34B | 4.39B | 6.07B | 5.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 187.00M | 390.00M | 386.00M | 133.00M | -88.00M | 791.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.06B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.11B | 716.00M | 1.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -669.00M | -699.00M | -792.00M | -1.08B | -1.01B | -1.11B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -227.00M | -406.00M | -506.00M | -168.00M | -51.00M | 166.00M |
UGI Technical Analysis
Negative
37.33
Price Trends
35.31
Negative
35.37
Negative
35.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.24
Positive
44.92
Neutral
38.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.07, above the 50-day MA of 35.31, and above the 200-day MA of 35.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UGI.
UGI Risk Analysis
UGI disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UGI reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $5.55B | 15.23 | 14.42% | 3.16% | 7.08% | -11.82% | |
66 Neutral | $3.22B | 21.39 | 9.33% | 2.05% | 14.61% | 11.96% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.63B | 12.84 | 12.89% | 2.69% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
62 Neutral | $7.54B | 11.25 | 13.15% | 4.07% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
58 Neutral | $5.00B | 17.25 | 8.42% | 3.35% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
55 Neutral | $4.87B | 9.20 | 21.42% | 3.95% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
UGI
UGI
35.10
0.63
1.84%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
134.73
11.52
9.35%
SR
Spire
82.71
8.15
10.94%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
55.36
9.48
20.66%
SWX
Southwest Gas
92.17
14.59
18.80%
OGS
ONE Gas
80.38
6.40
8.65%
UGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
UGI Introduces Unified Executive Short-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 4, 2026, UGI Corporation’s Compensation and Talent Development Committee approved a new Executive Short-Term Incentive Bonus Plan, effective October 1, 2026, replacing all prior executive annual bonus plans across UGI and its parti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UGI Narrows Losses, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance and Strategy
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
UGI reported results for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026, narrowing its quarterly GAAP and adjusted losses per share compared with the prior year while year‑to‑date adjusted EPS declined modestly, and segment EBIT held ste...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
UGI Energy Services Updates Term Loan Pricing Terms
Neutral
Jul 7, 2026
On June 30, 2026, UGI Energy Services, LLC amended its existing term loan credit agreement originally dated August 13, 2019, by entering into a Fourth Amendment with HSBC Bank USA, N.A. and other lenders. The amendment sets the applicable interest...
Executive/Board Changes
UGI Announces Planned Transition in Top Legal Leadership
Neutral
May 28, 2026
UGI Corporation announced that its General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer, Kathleen Shea Ballay, intends to resign effective July 3, 2026, marking a planned transition in the company’s top legal leadership. The company stated that her dutie...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Reports Strong Early Participation in 2028 Note Tender
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 20, 2026, AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance Corp., indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of UGI, issued $500 million of 6.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031 in a Rule 144A/Reg S private offering, featuring standard call options, change&...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
UGI Announces Entry into New Material Definitive Agreement
Neutral
May 23, 2026
The company UGI provided only a brief reference indicating that required information is included elsewhere, without offering operational, financial, or strategic details in this release. As a result, there is no substantive disclosure in this docu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI Reshapes AmeriGas Debt with Major Tender Offer
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, UGI said AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance had received tenders for about $468.5 million of their 5.750% senior notes due 2027, representing roughly 91.51% of the outstanding issue, by the May 15 expiration of a cash tender o...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI International Prices €300 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, UGI Corporation announced that its indirect, wholly owned subsidiary UGI International, LLC priced a €300 million offering of 5.000% senior notes due 2031 in a private placement to institutional and non-U.S. investors. The n...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI International Launches €300 Million Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, UGI International launched a €300 million private offering of senior notes, marketing the deal to prospective investors via a new presentation that updates prior corporate disclosures. The company emphasized the information ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI’s AmeriGas Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, UGI Corporation announced that its subsidiaries AmeriGas Partners and AmeriGas Finance Corp. priced a private offering of $500 million of 6.875% senior unsecured notes due 2031, sold to qualified institutional buyers under Rule 14...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UGI’s AmeriGas Launches Notes Offering, Debt Refinancing Plan
Positive
May 11, 2026
On May 11, 2026, AmeriGas Partners, L.P. and AmeriGas Finance Corp., indirect wholly owned subsidiaries of UGI Corporation, launched a private offering of $500 million in senior notes due 2031, relying on exemptions from U.S. securities registrati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.