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ONE Gas
(NYSE:OGS)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
â–¼(-6.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/26/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—stable and improving margins but pressured by a steep TTM revenue drop and consistently negative free cash flow. Technicals are weak with a clear downtrend despite oversold readings, while valuation (reasonable P/E and solid yield) and a constructive earnings call with higher confidence within guidance provide meaningful support.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility model
ONE Gas operates a regulated delivery model that supports recurring revenue and allows recovery of approved operating costs and invested capital. Commodity-cost pass-through mechanisms also limit direct exposure to gas prices, improving earnings visibility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue contraction
The steep TTM revenue decline creates uncertainty around the company’s current revenue run-rate, even though regulated earnings remain solid. Demand, weather normalization, rate timing, or other factors affecting reported revenue could continue to obscure underlying growth over the next several months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility model
ONE Gas operates a regulated delivery model that supports recurring revenue and allows recovery of approved operating costs and invested capital. Commodity-cost pass-through mechanisms also limit direct exposure to gas prices, improving earnings visibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
ONE Gas (OGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.69B
Dividend Yield3.58%
Average Volume (3M)637.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-0.78%
EPS Growth10.67%
CountryUS
Employees4,000
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.66
Shares Outstanding62,856,270
10 Day Avg. Volume689,566
30 Day Avg. Volume637,255
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.91
P/FCF Ratio-36.20
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$84.17Price Target Upside3.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.48B
ONE Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ONE Gas, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, functions as a regulated natural gas utility across the United States. Its operations are structured into three distinct divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service...
How the Company Makes Money
ONE Gas primarily makes money by earning regulated revenue from delivering natural gas to customers within its state-authorized service territories. Its main revenue stream is retail natural gas distribution service, which includes charges approve...
ONE Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported strong Q2 results with double-digit EPS growth, raised its full-year earnings expectation to the upper half of guidance, and highlighted significant growth opportunities (large-load projects, installed meters, and a deep project funnel) supported by constructive regulatory developments (notably Texas HB 4384 and recent GRIP/GSRS filings). Operational initiatives (insourcing) and cost discipline are expected to reduce O&M growth in the back half of the year. Headwinds include elevated O&M and fuel costs, timing volatility from weather and legislative accruals, and the dependency on project convertibility and remaining equity funding. Overall, the positives — stronger-than-expected earnings, tightened guidance to the upside, legislative tailwinds, and a healthy project pipeline — meaningfully outweigh the operational and timing risks discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Strong Quarter — Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q2 was $52.1 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, versus $32.7 million or $0.54 in Q2 2025, a 52% increase in adjusted net income and a 52% increase in adjusted EPS year-over-year. GAAP EPS rose to $0.74 from $0.53, nearly a 40% increase.
Negative Updates
O&M Expense Pressure
Second quarter O&M expenses increased approximately 6.6% year-over-year (moderating from >8% in Q1). Management noted an incremental ~$9 million of additional O&M this quarter versus last year, with roughly 15% of that (~$1.35M) attributable to elevated fuel costs for fleet operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarter — Adjusted EPS and Net Income Growth
Adjusted net income for Q2 was $52.1 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, versus $32.7 million or $0.54 in Q2 2025, a 52% increase in adjusted net income and a 52% increase in adjusted EPS year-over-year. GAAP EPS rose to $0.74 from $0.53, nearly a 40% increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ONE Gas reiterated full‑year adjusted net income guidance of $306M–$314M and adjusted EPS guidance of $4.83–$4.95, and now expects to land in the upper half of those ranges (roughly $310M–$314M and $4.89–$4.95), supported by strong 1H results (Q2 adjusted net income $52.1M / adjusted EPS $0.82 vs $32.7M / $0.54 LY, a 52% Q2 increase and 16% YTD EPS growth despite a winter ~25% warmer than normal), about $16M of new‑rate revenue, an expected ~$0.42 full‑year EPS benefit from Texas HB 4384 (≈$0.28–$0.29 recognized in 1H), continued customer growth (11,000 new meters through July), $188M of capex placed in Q2, three contracted large‑load projects (~$15M incremental annual revenue and ~$175M associated capital), six late‑stage projects (collectively ~3 GW / up to 1 Bcf/d) plus 17 earlier opportunities, capacity‑release revenues of ~$0.9M in Q2 and ~$2.8M YTD with ~$1.2M remaining, Q2 O&M up ~6.6% YoY but long‑term O&M growth guide of 3%–4%, a maintained quarterly dividend of $0.68, and ~ $41.5M of forward equity sales in place (≈half this year’s need).ONE Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.31B | 2.43B | 2.08B | 2.37B | 2.58B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 1.73B | 1.43B | 775.11M | 729.08M | 646.65M | 583.91M |
| EBITDA | 783.03M | 781.52M | 703.17M | 666.90M | 574.25M | 514.28M |
| Net Income | 288.25M | 264.22M | 222.85M | 231.23M | 221.74M | 206.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.81B | 9.33B | 8.43B | 7.77B | 7.78B | 8.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.86M | 33.73M | 57.99M | 18.84M | 9.68M | 8.85M |
| Total Debt | 3.39B | 3.39B | 3.33B | 3.05B | 3.26B | 4.18B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.27B | 5.89B | 5.32B | 5.01B | 5.19B | 6.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.54B | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.77B | 2.58B | 2.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -172.84M | -128.39M | -334.75M | 272.90M | 961.36M | -2.03B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 517.36M | 578.83M | 368.41M | 939.53M | 1.57B | -1.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -696.56M | -715.32M | -707.50M | -669.64M | -614.11M | -501.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 167.05M | 91.68M | 378.23M | -248.63M | -947.46M | 2.04B |
ONE Gas Technical Analysis
Negative
81.10
Price Trends
76.59
Negative
77.06
Negative
79.93
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
56.09
Neutral
85.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OGS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 81.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.09, above the 50-day MA of 76.59, and above the 200-day MA of 79.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OGS.
ONE Gas Risk Analysis
ONE Gas disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ONE Gas reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ONE Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $28.24B | 19.69 | 9.67% | 2.39% | 6.45% | 15.84% | |
70 Outperform | $5.91B | 19.48 | 7.73% | 3.59% | 2.51% | 0.05% | |
66 Neutral | $5.19B | 14.31 | 14.42% | 3.70% | 7.08% | -11.82% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.26B | 12.41 | 12.89% | 2.88% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
60 Neutral | $4.69B | 16.22 | 8.42% | 3.58% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
58 Neutral | $4.90B | 9.22 | 15.87% | 3.98% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OGS
ONE Gas
75.60
-4.15
-5.21%
ATO
Atmos Energy
167.13
-5.96
-3.44%
BKH
Black Hills
77.53
14.73
23.45%
SR
Spire
82.89
-0.85
-1.01%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
52.02
7.56
17.00%
SWX
Southwest Gas
89.12
11.29
14.50%
ONE Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas Highlights Strategy at Wolfe Research Conference
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On Sept. 25, 2026, ONE Gas said it would participate virtually in the Wolfe Research Utilities, Midstream Clean Energy Conference scheduled for Sept. 29, 2026, signaling continued engagement with Wall Street and sector analysts. Chief executive o...
Business Operations and Strategy
ONE Gas to Join AGA Investor Mini-Forum
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On Sept. 8, 2026, ONE Gas announced it would participate in the American Gas Association Mini-Forum to be held Sept. 15, 2026, in Boston, marking an engagement with a key industry platform. Senior vice president and chief financial officer Christo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ONE Gas Completes $375 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On August 11, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with BofA Securities, RBC Capital Markets and Truist Securities for a $375 million offering of 5.45% Senior Notes due 2036, under customary terms including representations, w...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
ONE Gas Raises 2026 Earnings Outlook After Strong Quarter
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
ONE Gas reported on August 4, 2026, that its second-quarter 2026 adjusted net income rose to $52.1 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, from $32.7 million, or $0.54 per share, a year earlier, driven by new rates, customer growth in Oklahoma and Te...
Executive/Board Changes
ONE Gas Adds Veteran Energy Leader to Board
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. expanded its board of directors from eight to nine members and appointed veteran energy executive Nickolas Stavropoulos to the new seat, with all existing directors remaining in place. Stavropoulos, 68, brings more ...
Financial Disclosures
ONE Gas Schedules Q2 2026 Earnings Results Release
Neutral
Jul 8, 2026
On July 8, 2026, ONE Gas announced plans to publish its second-quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. The release will be followed by an earnings conference call led by the executive management team on W...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.