Atmos Energy (ATO)
NYSE:ATO
Want to see ATO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Atmos Energy
(NYSE:ATO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$186.00
â–¼(-0.29% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/19/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings update with raised guidance and strong customer/regulatory momentum. This is tempered by persistent negative free cash flow and currently weak technical momentum, while valuation and recent liquidity/financing events provide moderate support.
Positive Factors
Regulated business model & rate recovery
Atmos operates a regulated distribution model where state regulators set rates to allow recovery of prudently incurred costs and an allowed return. This regulatory framework creates durable cash‑flow predictability, and ongoing filings (implemented $136M YTD; filings seeking ~$600M) support long‑term rate base recovery.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow & heavy capex
Atmos runs an investment‑heavy model (FY26 capex guide ~$4.2B; $2.0B spent H1) that often yields negative free cash flow. Persistent negative FCF increases reliance on external financing, raises execution risk for capital projects, and can constrain discretionary returns despite accounting profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated business model & rate recovery
Atmos operates a regulated distribution model where state regulators set rates to allow recovery of prudently incurred costs and an allowed return. This regulatory framework creates durable cash‑flow predictability, and ongoing filings (implemented $136M YTD; filings seeking ~$600M) support long‑term rate base recovery.
Read all positive factors
Atmos Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Atmos Energy (ATO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.39B
Dividend Yield2.15%
Average Volume (3M)1.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.0
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth8.81%
EPS Growth13.54%
CountryUS
Employees5,260
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.22
Shares Outstanding166,919,820
10 Day Avg. Volume1,664,476
30 Day Avg. Volume1,775,713
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)5.77
P/FCF Ratio-17.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$190.14Price Target Upside1.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)8.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.25B
Atmos Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atmos Energy Corporation, alongside its subsidiaries, is a U.S.-based enterprise primarily involved in the regulated distribution of natural gas, as well as operating pipeline and storage facilities. The company functions through two core division...
How the Company Makes Money
Atmos Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility and pipeline operations. (1) Regulated natural gas distribution: The company earns revenue by delivering natural gas to customers through its local distribution networks. Customer bills ...
Atmos Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated multiple positive operational and financial results: solid year-to-date earnings growth (+12.5% EPS), an upward revision to full-year guidance, substantial customer additions, major capital investments focused on safety and reliability, improved APT through-system performance and strong liquidity and regulatory progress. Offsetting these positives are cost pressures (O&M and other operating cost increases), commodity price and basis volatility in the Permian/Waha market that introduce earnings variability, and some one-time presentation and implementation timing complexities related to Texas Rule 7.7102 and rate filings. Overall, the positives—raised guidance, strong customer growth, sizable capital program and ample liquidity—outweigh the challenges, though execution and commodity risks remain items to monitor.Positive Updates
Strong Year-to-Date Earnings
Reported year-to-date fiscal 2026 net income of $985 million, or $5.92 per diluted share, representing a 12.5% increase in EPS versus the prior-year period.
Negative Updates
Higher Operating Costs (O&M)
Excluding Rule 7.7102 deferrals, consolidated O&M increased by $27 million year-to-date due to higher employee, compliance and safety-related spending in distribution and increased maintenance at APT; company still expects full-year O&M of $865–$885 million.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Year-to-Date Earnings
Reported year-to-date fiscal 2026 net income of $985 million, or $5.92 per diluted share, representing a 12.5% increase in EPS versus the prior-year period.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atmos updated fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $8.40–$8.50 (raised from prior guidance), reporting year‑to‑date net income of $985 million or $5.92 per diluted share and saying the remainder of FY26 EPS should accrue roughly evenly across the back half of the year; management cited two primary drivers—APT through‑system results (added ~$16 million YTD, ~$0.08, and expected to add an additional $0.08–$0.12 in H2) and Texas Rule 7.7102 deferrals now estimated at $155–$165 million pretax for FY26. Key financial assumptions include consolidated O&M guidance of $865–$885 million (the H1 presentation change reduced reported O&M by $41 million), interest expense guidance of $155–$160 million (reclassification impact), capital expenditures on track at ~$4.2 billion for FY26 with $2.0 billion spent in H1 (>89% on safety/reliability), spreads captured averaging $4.35 in H1 vs. $1.80 prior year, and implemented regulatory increases of $136 million in annualized operating income with 13 filings seeking nearly $600 million (about 40% expected to be implemented in Q3). Operational and liquidity metrics cited to support the outlook include >51,000 new customers in the 12 months ending March 31, 2026 (>39,000 in Texas), >800 new commercial and 4 new industrial customers in Q2, 97% customer satisfaction YTD, ~$9.5 million in assistance to ~33,000 customers, equity capitalization of 61%, no short‑term debt, $3.1 billion of committed credit facilities and $4.1 billion total available liquidity (including ~$890 million available from forward sale agreements to cover remaining FY26 and part of FY27 equity needs).Atmos Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.88B | 4.70B | 4.17B | 4.28B | 4.20B | 3.41B |
| Gross Profit | 2.51B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.06B | 1.81B | 1.70B |
| EBITDA | 2.58B | 2.38B | 2.10B | 1.74B | 1.49B | 1.38B |
| Net Income | 1.35B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 885.32M | 774.40M | 665.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.38B | 28.91B | 25.19B | 22.52B | 22.19B | 19.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 127.11M | 203.80M | 307.34M | 15.40M | 51.55M | 116.72M |
| Total Debt | 9.63B | 9.30B | 8.13B | 7.12B | 8.37B | 7.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.47B | 15.35B | 13.04B | 11.65B | 12.77B | 11.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.91B | 13.56B | 12.16B | 10.87B | 9.42B | 7.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.99B | -1.51B | -1.20B | 653.77M | -1.47B | -3.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.88B | 2.05B | 1.73B | 3.46B | 977.58M | -1.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.88B | -3.56B | -2.92B | -2.80B | -2.43B | -1.96B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.41B | 1.48B | -696.77M | 1.39B | 3.14B |
Atmos Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
186.54
Price Trends
179.06
Negative
179.71
Negative
174.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.70
Negative
41.25
Neutral
63.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 186.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.79, above the 50-day MA of 179.06, and above the 200-day MA of 174.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ATO.
Atmos Energy Risk Analysis
Atmos Energy disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atmos Energy reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Atmos Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $28.39B | 21.04 | 9.59% | 2.15% | 8.81% | 13.54% | |
66 Neutral | $4.82B | 17.66 | 8.20% | 3.45% | 2.81% | 7.01% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.56B | 16.28 | 13.74% | 4.01% | 8.52% | -18.44% | |
65 Neutral | $7.25B | 11.33 | 12.77% | 3.92% | 0.52% | 20.56% | |
64 Neutral | $22.66B | 23.54 | 10.37% | 2.69% | 15.01% | 8.33% | |
58 Neutral | $6.40B | 13.80 | 11.86% | 3.07% | -48.15% | 105.44% |
* Utilities Sector Average
ATO
Atmos Energy
170.11
16.29
10.59%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
55.11
11.52
26.43%
NI
Nisource
47.26
7.81
19.78%
SWX
Southwest Gas
88.48
15.56
21.35%
UGI
UGI
33.81
-1.11
-3.17%
OGS
ONE Gas
76.76
5.53
7.76%
Atmos Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atmos Energy Completes $700 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 18, 2026, Atmos Energy completed a public offering of $700 million in 4.750% senior unsecured notes due January 15, 2032, raising approximately $693.9 million in net proceeds after underwriting discounts and expenses. The notes, which rank...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atmos Energy prices $700 million senior notes offering
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Atmos Energy Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of banks to issue $700 million of 4.750% senior notes due 2032 in an underwritten public offering registered under the Securities Act. The notes, is...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Atmos Energy Extends Revolving Credit Facilities, Boosting Liquidity
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On March 28, 2024, Atmos Energy Corporation entered into a three-year revolving credit agreement with Crédit Agricole and a syndicate of lenders, providing a $1.5 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility. Under an extension feature ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.