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Nisource
(NYSE:NI)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
â–²(6.98% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
NI scores in the low 60s primarily due to solid regulated-utility profitability and constructive long-term growth visibility from reaffirmed guidance and the GenCo/data-center strategy, but the score is held back by persistently negative free cash flow, high leverage, and near-term earnings/regulatory uncertainty. Technicals are only modestly supportive, and valuation appears broadly fair rather than compelling.
Positive Factors
Regulated rate-base model
NiSource’s regulated utility model links earnings to approved delivery rates and invested rate base rather than commodity-price exposure. Continued infrastructure investment can expand the recoverable asset base, supporting more predictable revenue, earnings visibility and durable capital deployment over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt has increased materially while leverage remains elevated for the company, reducing financial flexibility as NiSource funds a large capital program. Higher obligations can increase sensitivity to financing conditions and leave fewer resources available for investment or resilience if funding needs become less favorable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated rate-base model
NiSource’s regulated utility model links earnings to approved delivery rates and invested rate base rather than commodity-price exposure. Continued infrastructure investment can expand the recoverable asset base, supporting more predictable revenue, earnings visibility and durable capital deployment over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nisource Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenues by Segment
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Breaks down revenue from various segments, indicating where the company is generating the most sales and potential growth opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNisource (NI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.51B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)5.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.6
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth12.25%
EPS Growth0.39%
CountryUS
Employees7,703
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.90
Shares Outstanding479,560,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,265,462
30 Day Avg. Volume5,557,189
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio-47.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.88Price Target Upside16.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.09B
Nisource Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations. The company provides natural gas to residentia...
How the Company Makes Money
NiSource primarily makes money through regulated utility operations, where revenues and earnings are largely determined by rates approved by state public utility commissions. The company’s key revenue streams come from: (1) Natural gas distributio...
Nisource Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable long-term growth and regulatory wins—particularly around the GenCo/data center strategy, $1.4 billion of customer bill relief, a robust 9 GW pipeline, and reaffirmed multi-year financial targets—against near-term pressures including a significant Q2 EPS decline (≈27%), elevated O&M from storm and labor-related costs, and a recent Indiana regulatory order introducing recovery uncertainty. Management conveyed confidence in execution, multiple recovery pathways, and meaningful second-half tailwinds, resulting in more positives than negatives but with material short-term risks.Positive Updates
Year-to-Date EPS Improvement
Consolidated year-to-date adjusted EPS was $1.22, up $0.03 versus the prior year (≈+2.5%), reflecting revenue from new rates and recovery mechanisms implemented at NIPSCO Electric and Columbia Gas operations.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EPS Decline
Q2 consolidated adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.22 in Q2 last year, a decline of $0.06 (≈-27.3%), driven by higher O&M and typical seasonal 'shoulder' quarter dynamics.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-to-Date EPS Improvement
Consolidated year-to-date adjusted EPS was $1.22, up $0.03 versus the prior year (≈+2.5%), reflecting revenue from new rates and recovery mechanisms implemented at NIPSCO Electric and Columbia Gas operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NiSource reaffirmed 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 per share (Q2 adjusted EPS $0.16 vs. $0.22 a year ago; YTD adjusted EPS $1.22, up $0.03 YOY) and said earnings will be more weighted to the second half, while reiterating annual base-plan adjusted EPS growth of 6%–8% through 2030 and a consolidated adjusted EPS CAGR of 9%–10% from 2026–2033; rate base growth targets remain 8%–10% (base plan) through 2030 and 9%–11% consolidated from 2026–2033. The five-year capital outlook is $21 billion of base business investment, $2 billion of upside and $7.6 billion of GenCo capex, with a pipeline of roughly 9 GW of data-center opportunities (4 GW signed, ~3 GW in active strategic negotiations, ~2 GW line‑of‑sight and potential to expand), an Amazon amendment adding 400 MW already in near‑ and long‑term guidance, GenCo savings of ~$1.4 billion to customers (≈up to $124/year per average residential NIPSCO customer) starting as early as Q4, line of sight to >$40 million of cost optimizations, and a financing plan targeting FFO/debt of 14%–16% with annual equity issuance of ~$400–$600 million.Nisource Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.88B | 6.64B | 5.46B | 5.51B | 5.85B | 4.90B |
| Gross Profit | 3.49B | 3.35B | 2.81B | 2.48B | 2.25B | 2.05B |
| EBITDA | 3.20B | 3.05B | 2.57B | 2.22B | 2.15B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | 905.10M | 929.50M | 760.40M | 714.30M | 804.10M | 584.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 37.54B | 36.55B | 31.79B | 31.08B | 26.74B | 24.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.00M | 135.70M | 156.60M | 2.25B | 40.80M | 84.20M |
| Total Debt | 17.57B | 16.24B | 13.96B | 14.13B | 11.53B | 9.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.64B | 24.89B | 21.12B | 20.94B | 18.83B | 16.88B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.57B | 9.45B | 8.68B | 8.27B | 7.58B | 6.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.09B | -420.00M | -861.50M | -710.70M | -793.70M | -620.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.30B | 2.36B | 1.78B | 1.94B | 1.41B | 1.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.93B | -4.29B | -3.21B | -3.57B | -2.57B | -2.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.36B | 1.87B | -651.00M | 3.84B | 1.14B | 956.30M |
Nisource Technical Analysis
Positive
41.13
Price Trends
40.99
Positive
43.39
Positive
44.48
Negative
Market Momentum
0.60
Negative
70.74
Negative
94.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.86, above the 50-day MA of 40.99, and below the 200-day MA of 44.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.74 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NI.
Nisource Risk Analysis
Nisource disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nisource reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nisource Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $28.24B | 19.66 | 9.67% | 2.40% | 6.45% | 15.84% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.41B | 12.31 | 12.89% | 2.86% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
64 Neutral | $8.28B | 12.36 | 13.15% | 3.89% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
62 Neutral | $20.51B | 22.63 | 9.58% | 2.74% | 12.25% | 0.39% | |
60 Neutral | $4.75B | 16.21 | 8.42% | 3.59% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
58 Neutral | $4.90B | 9.18 | 15.87% | 4.00% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NI
Nisource
43.69
0.96
2.26%
ATO
Atmos Energy
173.91
2.14
1.25%
SR
Spire
85.56
0.59
0.70%
SWX
Southwest Gas
91.08
12.38
15.73%
UGI
UGI
38.61
6.63
20.74%
OGS
ONE Gas
78.25
-1.33
-1.67%
Nisource Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource enters major long-term battery storage agreement
Positive
Oct 16, 2026
On October 15, 2026, NiSource Generation Company LLC entered into a long‑term tolling agreement with Atlas Storage 1 LLC, an AGP Group subsidiary, for a 600 MWAC / 2,400 MWh stand‑alone battery energy storage project connected to the M...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NiSource Issues $750 Million Junior Subordinated Notes
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 13, 2026, NiSource Inc. agreed with a syndicate of underwriters to issue $750 million of 6.250% Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057, with the sale closing on August 18, 2026. The notes carry a fixed 6.250% coupon...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.