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Northwestern
(NASDAQ:NWE)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$77.00
â–²(8.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
The score is driven primarily by stable operating performance but constrained by weak cash conversion and persistently negative free cash flow, alongside elevated leverage typical of a capital-intensive utility. Technicals are mildly supportive (price above key moving averages) but lack strong momentum, and valuation is held back by a higher P/E despite a solid dividend yield. Management reaffirmed guidance, but regulatory/cost-recovery and merger execution risks remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Stable regulated operations
Steady revenue growth and solid regulated-utility profitability indicate a resilient operating base supported by recurring electricity and natural-gas demand. Although earnings have softened, the durable margin profile gives NorthWestern capacity to maintain operations and invest through normal business fluctuations.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Recurring negative free cash flow shows that capital spending and working-capital needs exceed internally generated cash, despite positive operating cash flow. Continued reliance on debt or equity funding can constrain financial flexibility and make shareholder commitments more dependent on external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable regulated operations
Steady revenue growth and solid regulated-utility profitability indicate a resilient operating base supported by recurring electricity and natural-gas demand. Although earnings have softened, the durable margin profile gives NorthWestern capacity to maintain operations and invest through normal business fluctuations.
Read all positive factors
Northwestern (NWE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.56B
Dividend Yield3.6%
Average Volume (3M)518.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.6
Beta (1Y)0.20
Revenue Growth10.69%
EPS Growth-24.15%
CountryUS
Employees1,667
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.79
Shares Outstanding61,517,850
10 Day Avg. Volume738,474
30 Day Avg. Volume518,032
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.37
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio-30.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$70.25Price Target Upside-0.89% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.75B
Northwestern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NorthWestern Corporation, which conducts business under the name NorthWestern Energy, supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diverse industrial clients. The company organizes its operations into two primary divisions:...
How the Company Makes Money
NorthWestern makes money primarily through regulated utility operations. Its core revenue streams are (1) retail electricity sales and delivery charges to end-use customers, which include charges for distributing power over its transmission and di...
Northwestern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of encouraging operational and strategic progress—adjusted EPS growth, margin improvement, reaffirmed guidance, executed financing, a stable $3.2B capital plan, and multiple merger approvals—while highlighting material near-term challenges: unresolved Colstrip cost recovery, higher depreciation/interest, merger timing risk tied to the Montana commission, data center and transmission uncertainties, and local siting pushback. Management remains cautiously optimistic, reaffirming guidance and long-term targets, but several regulatory and cost-recovery issues create meaningful execution risk in the near term.Positive Updates
Quarterly EPS (GAAP and Adjusted)
Reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $0.50 for Q2 2026. Adjusted EPS increased $0.10 versus Q2 2025, a 25% improvement (from $0.40 to $0.50).
Negative Updates
YTD GAAP Earnings Decline
Year-to-date GAAP earnings of $1.43 versus $1.60 prior year, a decline of $0.17 or approximately -10.6%, driven by weather effects in Q1 and higher costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly EPS (GAAP and Adjusted)
Reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and non-GAAP (adjusted) diluted EPS of $0.50 for Q2 2026. Adjusted EPS increased $0.10 versus Q2 2025, a 25% improvement (from $0.40 to $0.50).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $3.68–$3.83 per share and reiterated long‑term rate base and EPS growth targets of 4%–6%, while reporting Q2 GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 and adjusted (non‑GAAP) diluted EPS of $0.50; year‑to‑date GAAP EPS was $1.43 (vs. $1.60 prior) and adjusted EPS $1.81 (vs. $1.62 prior). Key quarter metrics included a $0.38 margin improvement, $0.12 of incremental Colstrip operating cost, $0.04 of merger costs, $0.05 of unrecovered Colstrip O&M, and a $0.01 unfavorable weather impact; the company affirmed its $3.2 billion 2026–2030 capital plan, declared a $0.67/share dividend payable Sept. 1, 2026 (record date Aug. 17), and reiterated its standalone proposition of ~4% dividend yield with 4%–6% EPS growth (8%–10% total return potential) and an expected combined merger EPS growth of 5%–7% with Black Hills.Northwestern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.69B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.42B | 1.48B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.12B | 1.33B | 1.29B | 781.36M | 764.40M | 946.77M |
| EBITDA | 593.03M | 587.44M | 574.43M | 526.15M | 477.53M | 471.40M |
| Net Income | 171.37M | 181.09M | 224.11M | 194.13M | 183.01M | 186.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.70B | 8.46B | 8.00B | 7.60B | 7.32B | 6.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.18M | 8.78M | 4.28M | 9.16M | 8.49M | 2.82M |
| Total Debt | 3.60B | 3.44B | 3.10B | 2.79B | 2.63B | 2.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.81B | 5.57B | 5.14B | 4.82B | 4.65B | 4.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.90B | 2.89B | 2.86B | 2.79B | 2.67B | 2.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -192.16M | -130.00M | -142.50M | -77.66M | -207.90M | -214.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 416.09M | 394.45M | 406.74M | 489.23M | 307.24M | 219.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -649.72M | -570.63M | -554.46M | -570.81M | -516.86M | -435.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 232.18M | 177.90M | 151.55M | 84.31M | 213.32M | 217.52M |
Northwestern Technical Analysis
Positive
70.88
Price Trends
69.95
Positive
70.07
Positive
68.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.75
Negative
67.18
Neutral
81.88
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.58, above the 50-day MA of 69.95, and above the 200-day MA of 68.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWE.
Northwestern Risk Analysis
Northwestern disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwestern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwestern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $2.65B | 17.30 | 11.10% | 2.75% | 7.07% | 13.07% | |
64 Neutral | $9.61B | 20.31 | 9.56% | 3.66% | 0.63% | -6.14% | |
61 Neutral | $5.34B | 19.82 | 6.30% | 4.74% | 2.95% | -17.06% | |
60 Neutral | $7.83B | 21.91 | 9.36% | 2.60% | -1.11% | 8.18% | |
59 Neutral | $4.56B | 26.58 | 5.92% | 3.60% | 10.69% | -24.15% | |
52 Neutral | $6.45B | 32.50 | 5.67% | 2.86% | 9.97% | -7.29% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWE
Northwestern
74.15
18.99
34.43%
IDA
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135.42
4.84
3.70%
MGEE
MGE Energy
70.22
-11.67
-14.25%
OGE
OGE Energy
46.50
2.20
4.97%
TXNM
TXNM Energy
58.61
3.32
6.00%
POR
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45.39
4.03
9.74%
Northwestern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NorthWestern Reaffirms 2026 Earnings Outlook Amid Merger Plan
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, NorthWestern Energy’s vice president and CFO Crystal Lail and director of corporate development and investor relations Travis Meyer attended the Barclays 40th Annual Energy-Power Conference in New York to present to cur...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NorthWestern posts stronger Q2 earnings and affirms guidance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
NorthWestern Energy reported higher second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, 2026, with GAAP diluted EPS rising to $0.40 from $0.35 a year earlier and non-GAAP diluted EPS increasing to $0.50 from $0.40, driven by new rates and retail volumes but p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.