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MGE Energy (MGEE) AI Stock Analysis

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MGEE

MGE Energy

(NASDAQ:MGEE)

Select Model
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:$86.00â–²(9.75% Upside)
Action:upgraded
Date:11/05/26

MGEE’s score is driven primarily by improving profitability and a stable utility balance sheet, tempered by persistently negative recent free cash flow. Technically, the stock shows a strong uptrend with positive momentum, while valuation is broadly reasonable with a supportive dividend. Corporate actions (liquidity extensions and dividend growth) add incremental strength.

Positive Factors
Regulated Utility ModelRegulated tariffs and approved cost-recovery mechanisms anchor revenue in customer energy demand and authorized returns on invested infrastructure. This framework can support relatively predictable earnings and lets prudent rate-base investment contribute to future utility growth.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash FlowTTM free cash flow was -$104.3M after -$80.0M in 2025, despite positive operating cash flow. Persistent investment spending above internally generated cash can increase reliance on external funding and constrain flexibility if the pattern continues.

MGE Energy (MGEE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%MGEE-4.64%SPY+8.73%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$2.96B
Dividend Yield
2.47%
Average Volume (3M)
171.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.1
Beta (1Y)
0.24
Revenue Growth
8.04%
EPS Growth
17.85%
Country
US
Employees
726
Sector
General
Sector Strength
55
Industry
Regulated Electric

MGE Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MGE Energy, Inc. operates as a public utility holding company, primarily conducting its business in Wisconsin through various subsidiary entities. The company's operations are divided into several key segments: Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated G...

How the Company Makes Money

MGE Energy makes money primarily through regulated utility operations conducted by Madison Gas and Electric Company, where revenues are largely derived from charging customers for electricity and natural gas service under tariffed rates approved by s...

MGE Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid and improving (higher net and gross margins and rising net income), and the balance sheet is stable for a regulated utility with moderate leverage and improving ROE. The main constraint is cash generation: free cash flow is materially negative in the most recent periods, implying heavier capex and potentially greater reliance on external funding if sustained.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

52Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue783.85M743.65M676.94M690.43M714.52M606.58M
Gross Profit384.17M308.90M278.83M269.04M243.92M213.55M
EBITDA309.50M304.78M272.68M276.28M249.37M210.97M
Net Income161.49M135.89M120.57M117.70M110.95M105.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.36B3.16B2.83B2.68B2.52B2.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.54M6.62M21.30M11.14M11.60M17.44M
Total Debt933.65M935.73M787.45M780.01M727.17M641.92M
Total Liabilities1.88B1.85B1.60B1.54B1.44B1.34B
Stockholders Equity1.48B1.30B1.23B1.14B1.08B1.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-104.30M-79.99M40.86M15.49M-21.30M-15.64M
Operating Cash Flow275.52M263.23M277.78M237.56M153.74M137.53M
Investing Cash Flow-385.86M-350.56M-241.49M-230.02M-180.15M-156.97M
Financing Cash Flow110.21M71.57M-26.83M-10.48M25.54M-8.76M

MGE Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price78.36

Price Trends

50DMA73.50Positive
100DMA76.75Positive
200DMA76.85Positive

Market Momentum

MACD1.01Negative
RSI69.34Neutral
STOCH71.33Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MGEE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 78.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.20, above the 50-day MA of 73.50, and above the 200-day MA of 76.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MGEE.

MGE Energy Risk Analysis

MGE Energy disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MGE Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

MGE Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

MGEE against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
WECWEC73Outperform$38.86B21.3212.81%3.17%8.14%4.57%
MGEEMGEE72Outperform$2.93B18.1011.59%2.47%8.04%17.85%
XELXEL69Neutral$51.67B18.6911.01%2.92%4.35%30.94%
AEEAEE66Neutral$31.31B19.4511.70%2.62%3.76%25.15%
LNTLNT66Neutral$19.13B20.3412.41%2.91%5.36%13.51%
NWENWE60Neutral$5.04B30.725.66%3.26%10.09%-24.61%
Sector *55Neutral$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-10%0%10%20%MGEELNTAEENWEWECXELDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
MGEE and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
MGEEMGE Energy Inc78.36-2.88-3.55%
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation73.448.5113.10%
AEEAmeren Corporation112.8111.3611.19%
NWENorthwestern82.0218.3728.86%
WECWEC Energy Group Inc118.329.628.85%
XELXcel Energy80.372.393.07%

MGE Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

MGE Energy Extends Credit Facilities to Support Liquidity

Positive
Oct 5, 2026

On October 1, 2026, MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric Company amended and restated their existing credit agreements largely to extend maturities to October 1, 2031 and preserve prior terms. The move solidifies long-term liquidity for the group,...

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

MGE Energy Boosts Dividend, Extends 51-Year Growth Streak

Positive
Aug 21, 2026

On August 21, 2026, MGE Energy announced that its board approved a 7.0% increase in the regular quarterly dividend to $0.5083 per share on its common stock, payable on September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2026. The move ra...

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

MGE Energy boosts earnings on renewable investment gains

Positive
Aug 5, 2026

On August 5, 2026, MGE Energy, Inc. reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $33.4 million, or $0.89 per share, up from $26.5 million, or $0.72 per share, a year earlier. Operating revenues for the quarter rose modestly to $161.2 million from $1...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026