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Avista
(NYSE:AVA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
â–¼(-4.88% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back mainly by weak cash flow quality (negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include solid operating profitability trends and a reasonable valuation with a relatively high dividend yield, while the latest earnings call adds uncertainty tied to wildfire impacts and regulatory outcomes.
Positive Factors
Regulated, rate‑base business and planned capex
Avista’s regulated rate‑base model and large multi-year capital program create durable revenue drivers: authorized rate mechanisms and recent rate increases help convert investments into a growing rate base, supporting steady allowed returns and multi-year earnings growth irrespective of short-term cycles.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative free cash flow
Negative and inconsistent free cash flow forces ongoing reliance on external financing to support large capital needs. Over time this constrains flexibility, increases borrowing needs during rate lag periods, and makes funding contingency for storms or regulatory delays more difficult without adverse financing costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated, rate‑base business and planned capex
Avista’s regulated rate‑base model and large multi-year capital program create durable revenue drivers: authorized rate mechanisms and recent rate increases help convert investments into a growing rate base, supporting steady allowed returns and multi-year earnings growth irrespective of short-term cycles.
Read all positive factors
Avista (AVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.34B
Dividend Yield4.86%
Average Volume (3M)711.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue Growth-1.47%
EPS Growth7.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,929
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.78
Shares Outstanding82,638,430
10 Day Avg. Volume472,240
30 Day Avg. Volume711,794
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.69
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.59
P/FCF Ratio-30.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.67Price Target Upside-10.42% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.01B
Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avista Corporation operates as an energy utility, conducting business through its various subsidiaries. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities division is responsible for electric dis...
How the Company Makes Money
Avista makes money primarily through its regulated utility operations by charging customers for electric and natural gas service under rates approved by state utility commissions. For electricity, revenue is earned from retail tariffs that recover...
Avista Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed picture: significant near-term operational and community impacts from severe wildfires and related infrastructure damage contrasted with effective emergency response actions, demonstrated value of mitigation programs (PSPS, vegetation management), a favorable nonregulated quarter (but with volatility risk), and proactive regulatory engagement on data center/customer protections. Financial exposure from the fires is still being assessed and management believes the damage is unlikely to require securitization; regulatory outcomes (rate case, data center approvals) remain uncertain.Positive Updates
Rapid Emergency Response and Partial Service Restoration
Crews repaired and energized a key transmission line, significantly reducing the risk of additional outages; service previously interrupted by public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) has been restored where outages were solely related to PSPS.
Negative Updates
Significant Wildfire Damage to Community and Infrastructure
Multiple wildfires near Spokane have devastated the community, displaced thousands including employees, caused significant transmission and distribution damage, and created an evolving restoration challenge with many areas inaccessible until fire conditions and emergency response allow access.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Rapid Emergency Response and Partial Service Restoration
Crews repaired and energized a key transmission line, significantly reducing the risk of additional outages; service previously interrupted by public safety power shutoffs (PSPS) has been restored where outages were solely related to PSPS.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call (Avista Corp., FY2026 Q2) management provided operational and regulatory guidance tied to the Spokane wildfires and ongoing regulatory matters: as of the call about 7,300 of 429,000 electric customers and about 5,300 of 386,000 natural gas customers remained without service, multiple transmission lines were damaged (a key transmission line was repaired and energized earlier that morning while a couple of lines remain out) and distribution damage is still being assessed; the company removed a 500‑MW data‑center project as upside to its capital plan while pausing the MOU pending workshops and potential tariff/policy changes; on the Washington rate case Avista will file rebuttal on Aug 7, has hearings Sept 17–18 and expects a commission order by mid‑December, supports a 4‑year plan (with the option to refile/replace years 3–4 if an extreme event occurs), noted prior legislation (two sessions ago) permitting securitization though it’s unlikely to be needed here, and flagged a near‑term nonregulated gain tied to an EIP/EROCK IPO that may introduce volatility next quarter.Avista Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.92B | 1.96B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.71B | 1.44B |
| Gross Profit | 848.00M | 475.00M | 1.14B | 1.05B | 974.35M | 941.81M |
| EBITDA | 659.00M | 654.00M | 602.00M | 542.63M | 446.42M | 459.02M |
| Net Income | 227.00M | 193.00M | 180.00M | 171.18M | 155.18M | 147.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.54B | 8.64B | 7.94B | 7.70B | 7.42B | 6.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.00M | 19.00M | 30.00M | 35.00M | 13.43M | 22.17M |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 3.03B | 2.92B | 2.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.71B | 5.93B | 5.35B | 5.22B | 5.08B | 4.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.82B | 2.71B | 2.59B | 2.48B | 2.33B | 2.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -104.00M | -101.00M | 1.00M | -51.56M | -327.79M | -172.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 546.00M | 469.00M | 534.00M | 447.08M | 124.21M | 267.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -650.00M | -564.00M | -539.00M | -510.00M | -460.00M | -444.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 120.00M | 84.00M | 0.00 | 85.00M | 327.00M | 185.55M |
Avista Technical Analysis
Negative
42.05
Price Trends
41.14
Negative
40.95
Negative
40.23
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.65
Positive
32.93
Neutral
7.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.02, above the 50-day MA of 41.14, and above the 200-day MA of 40.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVA.
Avista Risk Analysis
Avista disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avista reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avista Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $3.00B | 20.39 | 10.94% | 2.31% | 8.91% | 10.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.71B | 13.20 | 15.21% | 2.39% | -0.54% | -5.27% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.42B | 18.45 | 7.60% | 3.66% | 3.58% | -1.83% | |
60 Neutral | $4.23B | 24.64 | 5.92% | 3.65% | 10.69% | -24.15% | |
56 Neutral | $3.34B | 16.05 | 8.29% | 4.67% | -1.47% | 7.23% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AVA
Avista
38.73
2.72
7.54%
BKH
Black Hills
74.65
16.63
28.65%
MGEE
MGE Energy
81.54
0.46
0.57%
NWE
Northwestern
72.09
19.23
36.37%
OTTR
Otter Tail
93.79
16.03
20.61%
Avista Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Avista Faces Major Wildfire Damage and Service Disruptions
Negative
Aug 3, 2026
In the wake of multiple wildfires that broke out on August 1, 2026 in the Spokane, Washington area, Avista reported extensive damage to its electric transmission and distribution infrastructure within its service territory. The fires, which by the...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Avista Announces Planned Retirement of Senior Vice President
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Avista Corp. announced that Jason R. Thackston, Senior Vice President of Growth, Energy Policy and External Relations, will retire from the company effective January 1, 2027. Thackston, who has held Board-level roles at Whitworth ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Avista Pauses Data Center Talks Amid Grid Concerns
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Avista announced it has paused processing energy service negotiations for a proposed 500 MW data center, citing the need for a broader, coordinated planning process with government agencies and stakeholders amid heightened commun...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista explores major new large-load power supply project
Positive
Jun 2, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Avista Corp. entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding with a developer in its Washington service territory to explore interconnection and power supply for a large-load electric customer. The customer anticipates an i...
Private Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Avista Issues New Secured Bonds to Fund Capital Program
Neutral
May 20, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Avista Corporation issued $90 million of 4.77% first mortgage bonds due 2029 and $70 million of 6.10% first mortgage bonds due 2056 in a private placement with institutional investors, secured by a lien on substantially all compan...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Avista Updates 2026 Outlook, Capital Plan and Regulatory Progress
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Avista Corp. released an investor presentation outlining its financial position, regulatory progress, and investment plans, highlighting 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share and a long-term u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.