Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.09B
• Dividend Yield: 5.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 622.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.21
• Revenue Growth: 3.14%
• EPS Growth: -2.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,920
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Diversified Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 80,563,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 829,182
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 622,257
• PEG Ratio: 22.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.55
• 1Y Price Target: $40.00
• Price Target Upside: 4.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(9.49%Upside)

Avista's overall stock score reflects its solid financial performance and attractive valuation, supported by a robust dividend yield. The positive sentiment from recent corporate events and a generally favorable earnings call balance out the mixed technical indicators. While some operational challenges exist, the company's strategic direction and financial management provide a stable outlook.

Positive Factors

Energy Mix

The generation mix is ~50% low-cost hydro and ~10% renewables, creating a favorable backdrop.

Financial Performance

Following the constructive WA rate case outcomes, FY25/FY26/FY27 EPS estimates are adjusted ~5% higher to growth of 4%-6% off a ‘25 base.

Operational Developments

Year-over-year earnings increase at Avista Utilities due to rate relief and customer growth, showing some positive operational developments.

Negative Factors

Execution Challenges

AVA’s less constructive regulatory environments, power supply cost volatility, weaker balance sheet, and O&M management, will remain challenges to execution.

Financial Challenges

Earnings per share for the first quarter fell short of analyst expectations, suggesting potential challenges in meeting financial targets.

Regulatory and Market Risks

The current 14% discount to peers is reasonable due to factors including OR/ID rate case risks, below-avg rate base/EPS CAGR, lower visibility into load acceleration thesis, pending/uncertain ERM modifications, and wildfire exposure.

Avista Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avista Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company. It operates in two segments, Avista Utilities and AEL&P. The Avista Utilities segment provides electric distribution and transmission, and natural gas distribution services in parts of eastern Washington and northern Idaho; and natural gas distribution services in parts of northeastern and southwestern Oregon, as well as generates electricity in Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana. This segment also engages in the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity and natural gas. The AEL&P segment offers electric services to 17,400 customers in the city and borough of Juneau, Alaska. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermal, and wind facilities. As of February 23, 2022, it provided electric service to 406,000 customers and natural gas to 372,000 customers. In addition, the company engages in venture fund investments, real estate investments, and other investments. Avista Corporation was incorporated in 1889 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

How the Company Makes Money

Avista makes money through the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas to its residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model includes regulated utility operations where they charge customers based on the consumption of electricity and natural gas. Rates are typically approved by state regulatory commissions, ensuring a stable revenue stream. Additionally, Avista may earn revenue from energy management services and partnership agreements related to renewable energy projects, as well as investments in technology and infrastructure aimed at improving energy efficiency and reliability.

Avista Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avista demonstrates solid financial performance with consistent revenue growth and stable profitability metrics. The balance sheet shows improved leverage ratios, and cash flows have significantly improved, reflecting better financial management. However, challenges in maintaining high gross profit margins and generating substantial free cash flow relative to net income suggest areas for operational and financial optimization.

Income Statement

Avista has shown consistent revenue growth, with a notable revenue increase of 11.5% from 2023 to the TTM ending in March 2025. The gross profit margin for TTM is robust at 33.3%, although there's a decrease from 2024's 58.9%, indicating potential cost pressures or pricing challenges. The net profit margin for TTM is 9.6%, slightly better than 2024's 9.3%, suggesting stable profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins show strong operational efficiency, with TTM EBIT margin at 17.0% and EBITDA margin at 32.0%.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 1.15, reflecting moderate leverage but a decrease from 2024's 1.20, indicating improved financial stability. The return on equity for TTM stands at 7.1%, consistent with the previous year's 6.9%, showcasing steady shareholder returns. The equity ratio for TTM is 33.2%, slightly higher than 2024's 31.5%, reflecting a stable capital structure.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow growth rate for TTM is substantial at 956.2%, indicating improved cash management and investment efficiency from 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.81 for TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 0.06, which, while positive, suggests that free cash flow generation is still limited relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.95B	1.94B	1.75B	1.71B	1.44B	1.32B
Gross Profit	647.91M	1.14B	1.05B	974.35M	941.81M	923.38M
EBITDA	623.33M	602.00M	542.63M	446.42M	459.02M	450.49M
Net Income	187.50M	180.00M	171.18M	155.18M	147.33M	129.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.97B	8.23B	7.70B	7.42B	6.85B	6.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.00M	30.00M	35.00M	13.43M	22.17M	14.20M
Total Debt	3.05B	3.12B	3.03B	2.92B	2.60B	2.39B
Total Liabilities	5.32B	5.35B	5.22B	5.08B	4.70B	4.37B
Stockholders Equity	2.65B	2.59B	2.49B	2.33B	2.15B	2.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.56M	1.00M	-51.56M	-327.79M	-172.60M	-73.30M
Operating Cash Flow	527.85M	534.00M	447.08M	124.21M	267.34M	331.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-523.90M	-539.00M	-510.39M	-460.24M	-444.92M	-410.74M
Financing Cash Flow	776.00K	0.00	84.89M	327.29M	185.55M	84.04M

Avista Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.69, below the 50-day MA of 38.72, and above the 200-day MA of 37.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVA.

Avista Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OTTR	73 Outperform	$3.34B	11.35	18.38%	2.63%	-2.68%	-3.73%
AVA	72 Outperform	$3.09B	16.34	7.25%	5.11%	3.14%	-2.66%
MGEE	69 Neutral	$3.29B	25.49	10.62%	2.00%	6.03%	6.15%
NWE	68 Neutral	$3.22B	13.65	8.27%	5.03%	4.31%	19.33%
ALE	67 Neutral	$3.76B	20.35	6.49%	4.51%	-11.15%	-23.41%
BKH	67 Neutral	$4.13B	14.53	8.02%	4.75%	3.28%	-3.49%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.52B	17.14	4.47%	3.56%	4.76%	6.13%

Avista Corporate Events

Avista Files Settlement with Idaho Utilities Commission

On June 9, 2025, Avista Corporation and other parties filed a settlement agreement with the Idaho Public Utilities Commission regarding electric and natural gas rate cases. If approved, the agreement will adjust rates over two years, with increases in electric and natural gas revenues in 2025 and a slight decrease in natural gas revenues in 2026. This settlement reflects a compromise from Avista’s original requests, influenced by factors such as a lower return on equity and changes in property tax laws.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.

Avista Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On May 8, 2025, Avista Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where all four proposals presented were approved. The proposals included the election of eleven directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent accounting firm, an amendment to the Long Term Incentive Plan, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. The approval of these proposals signifies continued confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction, potentially impacting its operational and financial strategies positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVA) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avista stock, see the AVA Stock Forecast page.