Avista (AVA) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Avista affirmed non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for '26 and expects earnings to be in line with the midpoint; guidance includes an expected negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism of $0.09 in the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band. Expected long-term return on equity at Avista Utilities is approximately 9% excluding any impact from the ERM, reflecting expected structural lag of 0.6%, and over the long term earnings are expected to grow 4% to 6% and from the midpoint of 2025 earnings guidance. Avista expects capital expenditures at Avista Utilities of $615 million in 2026 and base capital expenditures of $3.6 billion for 2027 through 2031; it expects to issue up to $15 million of additional common stock in 2026, no further issuances of long-term debt this year, approximately $220 million of long-term debt and up to $110 million of common stock in 2027, and a short-term loan of up to $100 million during the fourth quarter. The pause on processing new large data center applications is expected to last at least 12 months, other prospective load opportunities would be approximately 85 megawatts, demand response agreements are expected to provide up to 35 megawatts toward a 40-megawatt distributed energy goal by 2030, the 2027 IRP is expected to be filed late this year or early next year with another RFP soon after, and the North Plains Connector project is likely first half of next year with overall capital for the build-out of about $6 billion and Avista roughly 10%.