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NRG Energy
(NYSE:NRG)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$118.00
â–¼(-7.68% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
NRG’s score is held down primarily by weakened TTM cash flow (negative free cash flow), very high leverage, and a bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The main offset is a constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance and active deleveraging/capital return plans, but valuation remains demanding (high P/E) with only modest dividend support.
Positive Factors
Integrated Retail + Generation Platform
A combined retail and generation platform gives durable commercial scale and natural hedges across wholesale and retail cycles. Diversified customer flows and owned capacity reduce reliance on third-party supply and support long-term margin capture and cross-selling of services.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage materially limits balance sheet flexibility and heightens sensitivity to interest rates and cash-flow swings. It raises refinancing risk if market conditions tighten and constrains the company's ability to fund growth or absorb operational shocks without new financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated Retail + Generation Platform
A combined retail and generation platform gives durable commercial scale and natural hedges across wholesale and retail cycles. Diversified customer flows and owned capacity reduce reliance on third-party supply and support long-term margin capture and cross-selling of services.
Read all positive factors
NRG Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Highlights the profitability of each business segment after removing non-recurring items, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance and cash flow potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNRG Energy (NRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.50B
Dividend Yield1.11%
Average Volume (3M)2.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)117.0
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth10.82%
EPS Growth-86.75%
CountryUS
Employees15,637
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.86
Shares Outstanding210,986,470
10 Day Avg. Volume2,293,265
30 Day Avg. Volume2,699,237
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.91
Price to Book (P/B)18.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.01
P/FCF Ratio40.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$204.33Price Target Upside59.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)9.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$34.64B
NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its affiliated entities, operates as a comprehensive power utility spanning the United States. Its operations are divided into three main geographical divisions: Texas, East, and West. The company plays a crucial ro...
How the Company Makes Money
NRG makes money primarily through two integrated activities: (1) selling energy and energy-related services to end-use customers and (2) producing and selling electricity from its generation assets into wholesale power markets. On the retail side,...
NRG Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic and operational outlook: management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, highlighted successful integration and financing steps, strong Smart Home growth, and on-time TEF execution, while acknowledging a weather-driven soft quarter, acquisition-related cost pressures, and infrastructure/regulatory risks for large-load and new-build projects. Overall, the company portrayed confidence in its platform and capital allocation discipline to capture long-term upside.Positive Updates
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance and Confident Outlook
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and emphasized the business is tracking to plan; company targets at least 14% adjusted EPS and free cash flow per share growth over the next 5 years (before large-load contributions).
Negative Updates
Weather-Driven Softness in Q1 Results
Milder-than-normal Texas weather (heating degree days down ~30% year-over-year) led to reduced retail volumes and limited market opportunity in ERCOT, making Q1 2026 a soft quarter versus a record Q1 2025 comp.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance and Confident Outlook
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance and emphasized the business is tracking to plan; company targets at least 14% adjusted EPS and free cash flow per share growth over the next 5 years (before large-load contributions).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NRG reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and capital-allocation plan after a Q1 showing of $1.08 billion adjusted EBITDA, $308 million adjusted net income and $1.49 adjusted EPS (adj. EBITDA down ~$46 million YoY) despite Texas HDDs being ~30% lower YoY; management said the business is tracking to plan and reiterated the midpoint-funded capital waterfall of $3.05 billion (midpoint of updated free cash flow before growth). Key capital actions include ~ $1.0 billion of expected debt repayments in 2026, closing $3.5 billion of new financing on April 28 (retiring $1.5 billion Lightning senior secured notes and reducing revolver borrowings for >$10 million of annual net interest savings) to support a 3x net leverage target; the company will return at least $1.4 billion to shareholders (share repurchases + dividends), has repurchased $817 million through April 30 (including 1.83 million shares from LS Power) with a $1.0 billion repurchase plan in place, and is directing $310 million to growth investments. Operational and market metrics cited alongside the guidance include Houston on‑peak $29/MWh (≈‑13% YoY), PJM West on‑peak $103/MWh (+≈72% YoY), Smart Home customers ~2.37 million (+9% YoY vs. 5–6% long‑term plan), three Texas Energy Fund projects totaling 1.5 GW (≈300,000 homes at peak) with TH Wharton expected online in May, and a stated objective of at least 14% adjusted EPS and free‑cash‑flow‑per‑share growth over the next five years (before any large‑load or incremental development upside).NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 32.43B | 30.71B | 28.13B | 28.82B | 31.54B | 26.99B |
| Gross Profit | 5.54B | 6.71B | 6.03B | 2.30B | 4.10B | 6.51B |
| EBITDA | 2.57B | 3.81B | 3.50B | 1.75B | 2.80B | 4.18B |
| Net Income | 239.00M | 864.00M | 1.13B | -202.00M | 1.22B | 2.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 40.05B | 29.14B | 24.02B | 26.04B | 29.15B | 23.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.32B | 6.93B | 966.00M | 541.00M | 430.00M | 250.00M |
| Total Debt | 23.36B | 16.77B | 10.99B | 10.97B | 8.30B | 8.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.18B | 27.46B | 21.54B | 23.13B | 25.32B | 19.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.87B | 1.68B | 2.48B | 2.91B | 3.83B | 3.60B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -358.00M | 766.00M | 1.83B | -819.00M | -7.00M | 224.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 889.00M | 1.91B | 2.31B | -221.00M | 360.00M | 493.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.58B | -1.64B | -24.00M | -910.00M | -332.00M | -3.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.66B | 3.55B | -1.75B | -400.00M | 1.04B | -272.00M |
NRG Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
127.81
Price Trends
139.71
Positive
149.95
Negative
155.61
Negative
Market Momentum
1.52
Negative
65.18
Neutral
96.87
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 127.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.87, below the 50-day MA of 139.71, and below the 200-day MA of 155.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.87 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NRG.
NRG Energy Risk Analysis
NRG Energy disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NRG Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NRG Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
64 Neutral | $30.70B | 24.15 | 10.43% | 3.45% | 22.33% | -17.75% | |
63 Neutral | $26.62B | 21.82 | 8.32% | 3.13% | 7.52% | 21.81% | |
63 Neutral | $53.49B | 25.98 | 43.22% | 0.56% | -24.36% | -6.91% | |
61 Neutral | $26.87B | 25.21 | 8.38% | 3.94% | 11.30% | -1.99% | |
57 Neutral | $28.01B | 26.11 | 9.59% | 2.33% | 5.24% | 10.10% | |
46 Neutral | $28.50B | 116.98 | 8.84% | 1.11% | 10.82% | -86.75% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NRG
NRG Energy
146.06
-8.14
-5.28%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
44.04
8.32
23.31%
DTE
DTE Energy
152.37
24.21
18.89%
FE
FirstEnergy
47.54
8.74
22.52%
PPL
PPL
36.35
3.41
10.34%
VST
Vistra Corp
158.63
-25.50
-13.85%
NRG Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NRG Energy Adds Glenn Wright to Board of Directors
Positive
May 21, 2026
NRG Energy, Inc., a major U.S. retail energy provider and power generator, supplies electricity, natural gas, and smart home solutions to about eight million customers across North America. Supported by approximately 25 GW of generation capacity a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NRG Energy Shareholders Back Governance, Incentive Plan Changes
Positive
May 1, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on April 30, 2026, NRG Energy shareholders elected ten directors, each receiving a majority of votes cast, and approved on an advisory basis the compensation of the company’s named executive officer...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Launches Major Debt Refinancing and Term Loan
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, NRG Energy issued $500 million of 4.955% senior secured first lien notes due 2031 and $2.1 billion of unsecured senior notes due 2034 and 2036, all privately placed and guaranteed by key U.S. subsidiaries, while also arranging a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Announces Multi-Tranche Senior Notes Offerings
Positive
Apr 14, 2026
On April 14, 2026, NRG Energy, Inc. announced concurrent offerings of senior secured first lien notes due 2031 and senior unsecured notes due 2034 and 2036, all guaranteed by key U.S. subsidiaries and secured, in the case of the secured tranche, b...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NRG Energy Director Abraham Resigns Amid Planned Transition
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
On April 2, 2026, NRG Energy director E. Spencer Abraham notified the Board of his intention to resign for personal reasons, effective April 3, 2026, with the company stating his departure did not arise from any disagreement over its operations, p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.