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Nrg Energy (NRG)
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NRG Energy (NRG) AI Stock Analysis

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NRG

NRG Energy

(NYSE:NRG)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$184.00
▲(6.67% Upside)
NRG Energy's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance and high valuation concerns, offset by positive technical indicators and a strong earnings call. The company's strategic growth initiatives and raised financial guidance are significant positives, but high leverage and cash flow challenges pose risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
NRG's significant revenue growth indicates robust market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.
Increased Financial Guidance
Raising financial guidance for the third consecutive year reflects strong operational execution and confidence in future growth prospects.
Smart Home Segment Growth
Strong growth in the Smart Home segment highlights successful product offerings and customer retention, enhancing long-term revenue streams.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk during economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term stability.
Declining Profitability Margins
Decreasing profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management, which could hinder sustainable earnings growth over time.
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining cash flow growth may limit NRG's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, affecting long-term financial health.

NRG Energy (NRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NRG Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West. The company is involved in the producing, selling, and delivering electricity and related products and services to approximately 6 million residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It generates electricity using natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage. The company also provides system power, distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, and energy efficiency, and advisory services, as well as carbon management and specialty services; and on-site energy solutions. In addition, it trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Further, the company procures fuels; provides transportation services; and directly sells energy, services, and products and services to retail customers under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. As of December 31, 2021, it owns and leases power generation portfolio with approximately 18,000 megawatts of capacity at 25 plants. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyNRG Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity and gas, with its Generation segment contributing significantly to earnings by operating a diverse fleet of power plants, including natural gas, coal, solar, and wind facilities. Revenue is obtained by selling electricity to wholesale markets and directly to retail customers. In the Retail segment, NRG earns revenue by providing electricity and gas services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers, often through fixed-rate and variable-rate pricing plans. Additionally, the company engages in energy service offerings like demand response and energy efficiency programs. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, along with a focus on expanding its renewable energy portfolio, also play a crucial role in enhancing revenue streams and market presence.

NRG Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Income by Segment
Net Income by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:Main Street Data

NRG Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted several strong performance metrics, including record quarterly results, expansion in data center agreements, and progress on strategic acquisitions. While there were some challenges in specific segments, the overall outlook and growth across various business areas, along with increased financial guidance, reflect a positive sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Financial Guidance
NRG raised its 2025 financial guidance by $100 million in September, marking the third consecutive year of increased full-year outlook.
Record Quarterly Performance
NRG reported a 32% increase in adjusted EPS and a 14% increase in adjusted EBITDA from the same quarter last year, reaching the highest quarterly EBITDA in company history.
Expansion in Data Center Agreements
The company expanded data center power agreements, increasing contracted capacity to 445 megawatts and a pipeline of potential projects to 5.4 gigawatts.
LS Power Acquisition Progress
The LS Power acquisition is on track with financing executed on favorable terms and all regulatory filings submitted, expecting to close in Q1 2026.
Strong Smart Home Segment Growth
Smart Home segment achieved $272 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q3 and $803 million year-to-date, driven by record customer adds and retention rates.
Texas Segment Performance
Texas segment reported a 38% improvement in Q3 adjusted EBITDA compared to 2024, driven by margin expansion and lower realized supply costs.
Negative Updates
East Segment Decline
The East segment saw a modest decline in adjusted EBITDA compared to 2024, primarily due to higher supply costs and the absence of earnings from the sale of the Airtron business.
Challenges in PJM and Maryland Markets
Regulatory developments negatively impacted the competitive retail markets in Maryland and New York, affecting the company's operations.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, NRG Energy reported strong financial performance, leading to a $100 million increase in their 2025 financial guidance, marking the third consecutive year of raising their full-year outlook. Key metrics included a 32% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS and a record-high quarterly adjusted EBITDA. The company also introduced 2026 guidance, aligning with long-term growth targets and excluding contributions from the LS Power acquisition, which is on track to close in the first quarter of 2026. NRG expanded its data center power agreements to 445 megawatts and grew its pipeline of potential projects to 5.4 gigawatts. The company's Texas segment showed a 38% increase in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, while the Smart Home business achieved record customer retention and expanded net service margins. Year-to-date, adjusted EPS increased by 36% from the previous year, driven by strong performance and cost discipline.

NRG Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NRG Energy's financial performance is mixed. Strong revenue growth of 24.2% is overshadowed by declining profitability margins and high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.86. Cash flow challenges are evident with a 38.71% decline in free cash flow growth, indicating potential liquidity issues.
Income Statement
65
Positive
NRG Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 17.01%, which is a decline from previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. The net profit margin has also decreased to 1.78%, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. However, the revenue growth rate of 24.2% in the TTM period is a positive indicator of top-line expansion. Despite this, EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.86 in the TTM period, highlighting significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 20.75% from higher levels in previous years, reflecting reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 9.5%, indicating a low proportion of equity financing relative to total assets, which may pose risks in volatile market conditions.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
NRG Energy's cash flow statement shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 38.71% in the TTM period, signaling potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.26, suggesting that operating cash flow is not sufficiently covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.61 indicates moderate cash generation relative to net income, but the declining trend is concerning.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue29.78B28.13B28.82B31.54B26.99B9.09B
Gross Profit5.08B6.03B2.30B4.10B6.51B2.55B
EBITDA3.42B3.50B1.75B2.80B4.18B1.72B
Net Income1.44B1.13B-202.00M1.22B2.19B510.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.97B24.02B26.04B29.15B23.18B14.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.69B966.00M541.00M430.00M250.00M3.90B
Total Debt12.11B10.99B10.97B8.30B8.29B9.04B
Total Liabilities22.00B21.54B23.13B25.32B19.58B13.22B
Stockholders Equity1.97B2.48B2.91B3.83B3.60B1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.71B1.83B-819.00M-7.00M224.00M1.61B
Operating Cash Flow2.74B2.31B-221.00M360.00M493.00M1.84B
Investing Cash Flow-1.53B-24.00M-910.00M-332.00M-3.04B-494.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.25B-1.75B-400.00M1.04B-272.00M2.20B

NRG Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price172.50
Price Trends
50DMA
163.99
Positive
100DMA
158.83
Positive
200DMA
136.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.32
Positive
RSI
54.52
Neutral
STOCH
46.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 172.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.51, above the 50-day MA of 163.99, and above the 200-day MA of 136.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NRG.

NRG Energy Risk Analysis

NRG Energy disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NRG Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

NRG Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$26.50B19.9310.54%3.83%7.64%48.61%
70
Neutral
$25.46B24.629.61%2.21%6.43%5.07%
68
Neutral
$62.55B65.200.47%42.77%-47.64%
66
Neutral
$27.00B24.847.65%2.94%8.42%32.48%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$27.85B20.0911.64%3.19%19.42%-9.68%
63
Neutral
$32.90B24.8664.19%1.02%6.40%62.12%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NRG
NRG Energy
172.50
79.49
85.46%
CNP
Centerpoint Energy
39.41
10.09
34.41%
DTE
DTE Energy
136.75
20.93
18.07%
FE
FirstEnergy
45.90
5.86
14.63%
PPL
PPL
36.58
4.16
12.83%
VST
Vistra Energy
191.00
46.03
31.75%

NRG Energy Corporate Events

NRG Energy Reports Strong Q3 Results and Future Plans
Nov 7, 2025

NRG Energy Inc., a leading energy company in North America, provides innovative natural gas, electricity, and smart home solutions to a diverse customer base. The company operates in the energy sector and is known for its customer-focused strategy and commitment to sustainable growth.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Issues $4.275 Billion in Senior Notes
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

On October 8, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. issued $625 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2030 and 2035, and $3.65 billion in senior notes due 2034 and 2036. These notes, sold via private placement, are intended to fund the acquisition of equity interests in several power companies and to repay existing debt, positioning NRG Energy for strategic growth and financial restructuring.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $202.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Secures $561.9M Credit Agreement
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

On September 26, 2025, NRG Cedar Bayou 5 LLC, a subsidiary of NRG Energy, entered into a $561.9 million credit agreement to finance 60% of the costs for a new 721 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Chambers County, Texas. The agreement includes covenants and restrictions, such as maintaining a loan-to-cost ratio under 60% and achieving commercial operation by December 1, 2028, with provisions for prepayment and default events that could impact the company’s financial commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $140.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Announces $4.9 Billion Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. announced the pricing of its concurrent offerings of senior secured first lien notes and senior unsecured notes, totaling $4.9 billion. The proceeds from these offerings will be used to fund the cash portion of NRG’s acquisition of certain equity interests and to repay existing debt, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and strategic positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
NRG Energy Secures Loans for Texas Facilities
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

On May 12, 2025, NRG Energy, Inc. entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement to acquire a portfolio of generation assets, including 13 GW of natural gas-fired facilities and a 6 GW virtual power plant platform from LS Power affiliates. This acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $1,600 million to NRG’s consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, with anticipated revenue enhancements of $800 million within 18 months. Additionally, NRG announced offerings of senior secured and unsecured notes to fund the acquisition and repay existing debt. The company also secured a $216 million loan from the Public Utility Commission of Texas for its T.H. Wharton facility and plans a $562 million loan for its Cedar Bayou facility, both under the Texas Energy Fund.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Buy with a $212.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NRG Energy Raises 2025 Financial Guidance Amid Strong Performance
Positive
Sep 17, 2025

On September 17, 2025, NRG Energy announced an increase in its financial guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting strong business performance and favorable weather conditions. The company raised its Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EPS, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance, indicating a robust platform and effective execution by its team. This move is expected to create lasting value for customers and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NRG) stock is a Hold with a $153.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NRG Energy stock, see the NRG Stock Forecast page.

NRG Energy Faces Uncertainty and Risks in LSP Portfolio Acquisition
Aug 8, 2025

NRG Energy Inc. faces potential risks associated with the acquisition of the LSP Portfolio, as it will not have control over these assets until the transaction is finalized. Unknown or unexpected events, conditions, or actions could negatively impact the assets, liabilities, and operations of the LSP Portfolio before the acquisition closes. Factors such as actions by LS Power, legal or regulatory changes, and economic conditions could adversely affect the value of the assets or increase liabilities, posing a threat to NRG’s future financial health. Additionally, unforeseen liabilities and expenses may arise, which might not be fully addressed during due diligence or reflected in the purchase terms.

NRG Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 7, 2025

NRG Energy, Inc. is a leading energy company that provides innovative natural gas, electricity, and smart home solutions across North America. In its latest earnings report, NRG Energy announced strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, despite a GAAP net loss of $104 million. The company reported an adjusted net income of $339 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $909 million, highlighting robust operational performance and strategic advancements. Key financial metrics included an adjusted EPS of $1.73 and a free cash flow before growth investments of $914 million. NRG Energy also reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting adjusted net income between $1,330 million and $1,530 million, and adjusted EBITDA between $3,725 million and $3,975 million. Strategically, the company signed 295 MW of long-term retail agreements for data centers and increased its Texas Residential Virtual Power Plant target. Looking ahead, NRG Energy remains focused on executing its strategic initiatives and capital allocation plans, aiming to enhance shareholder value and maintain strong financial performance.

NRG Energy’s Earnings Call Highlights Robust Growth and Strategic Initiatives
Aug 7, 2025

NRG Energy Inc’s recent earnings call showcased a robust financial performance and strategic growth, particularly in data center agreements and virtual power plants. Despite some challenges related to asset sales and execution timing uncertainties, the overall sentiment was positive, with strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives taking center stage.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025