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Vistra Energy (VST)
NYSE:VST

Vistra Energy (VST) AI Stock Analysis

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Vistra Energy

(NYSE:VST)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$196.00
â–²(5.89%Upside)
Vistra Energy demonstrates robust financial performance and positive earnings guidance. Strong technical indicators and strategic acquisitions bolster its position, although high valuation and regulatory uncertainties in key markets present challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
The acquisition is attractively valued and expected to be accretive to free cash flow in the first year.
Shareholder Returns
The company's capital allocation plan targets the return of capital to shareholders with at least $1.0bn of share repurchases and $300mm in annual dividends, reaffirming its commitment to shareholders.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition expands the company's natural gas generation footprint across several key power markets, enhancing its strategic position.
Negative Factors
Tax Credits
There is a risk that nuclear production tax credits might not be fully restored, which is seen as a negative factor for Vistra.

Vistra Energy (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVistra Energy (VST) is a leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company headquartered in Irving, Texas. The company operates primarily in the United States and is involved in the generation, sale, and retail distribution of electricity. Vistra Energy's core services include producing electricity through a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, solar, and coal generation facilities, as well as offering energy-related products and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyVistra Energy makes money through its integrated business model, which combines power generation with retail electricity sales. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of electricity generated from its power plants and the provision of electricity and energy-related services to end consumers through its retail operations. Vistra's generation segment sells electricity in the wholesale market, while its retail segment generates revenue by marketing electricity plans and services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Additionally, Vistra leverages its diverse generation portfolio to optimize power production and manage costs, contributing to its overall profitability. Significant partnerships and market positions in key regions also enhance Vistra's ability to secure favorable pricing and supply agreements, further supporting its earnings.

Vistra Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 27.99%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Vistra reported a strong start to 2025 with significant year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, reaffirmed guidance, and successful hedging strategies. The company is returning substantial capital to shareholders and expanding its zero carbon business. However, uncertainties in policy and regulation, particularly in Texas and PJM, and operational challenges such as the Martin Lake Unit 1 outage present notable concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to 2025
Vistra achieved adjusted EBITDA of $1,240 million for Q1 2025, which is approximately 53% higher year-over-year compared to Q1 2024.
Reaffirmation of 2025 Guidance
Vistra reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion.
Hedging Strategy Success
Vistra has successfully hedged approximately 95% of its expected generation over the 2025 to 2026 timeframe, providing a stable and resilient earning stream.
Significant Capital Return to Shareholders
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, Vistra has returned approximately $6.3 billion to investors through share repurchases and common stock dividends.
Growth in Zero Carbon Business
Vistra grew its zero carbon business through the acquisition of Energy Harbor and is on track to add over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity by the end of 2025.
PJM and ERCOT Load Growth
Vistra sees electricity load growth as a structural tailwind, with expected annual compound growth in the low to mid single digits through 2030.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Policy and Regulation
Vistra faces uncertainties in policy challenges, particularly with the ongoing legislative activities in Texas and PJM that may impact new data center load growth.
Martin Lake Unit 1 Outage
The company's results were impacted by an outage at Martin Lake Unit 1 and the MOS landing batteries being offline.
Uncertainty in Texas Senate Bill 6
Potential concerns with large customer load curtailment provisions in Texas Senate Bill 6 that may affect data center deals.
Company Guidance
During Vistra's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance for the year, reaffirming their adjusted EBITDA range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3 billion to $3.6 billion. They emphasized the strength of their business model, achieving an adjusted EBITDA of $1,240 million in the first quarter, with a contribution of $1,056 million from generation and $184 million from retail. Vistra expressed confidence in their 2026 outlook, projecting an adjusted EBITDA significantly above $6 billion, supported by a comprehensive hedging strategy with approximately 95% of expected generation hedged for 2025-2026. They also highlighted their strategic priorities, such as maintaining a diversified generation portfolio and strong retail business, achieving a 95% commercial availability rate, and planning continued capital returns to shareholders, with an incremental $2 billion expected through share repurchases and dividends by 2026.

Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vistra Energy exhibits strong revenue growth and profitability improvements. Despite high leverage, the company has maintained healthy cash flows, indicating effective financial management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Vistra Energy shows strong revenue growth from 2020 to TTM with a Revenue Growth Rate of 3.62% from 2024 to TTM. The gross profit margin has been stable, with TTM at 41.31%. Net profit margin has improved significantly from negative figures in 2021 and 2022 to 13.40% in TTM, indicating better profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown positive trends, supporting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.67 in TTM, highlighting significant leverage but improving from previous years. The Equity Ratio of 12.62% in TTM suggests a relatively low proportion of equity financing. However, the Return on Equity has improved significantly to 50.27% in TTM, indicating strong returns on equity investment.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Vistra Energy demonstrates strong cash flow health with positive free cash flow and an improving Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.02 in TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 2.00 suggests solid cash generation from operations relative to net income. Free Cash Flow Growth Rate from 2023 to 2024 is slightly negative but remains positive over the larger period.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
18.10B17.22B14.78B13.73B12.08B11.44B
Gross Profit
7.48B7.53B5.52B1.68B1.35B4.65B
EBIT
3.88B4.08B2.66B-1.12B-1.27B1.52B
EBITDA
6.78B6.96B4.57B1.29B782.00M3.16B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.43B2.66B1.49B-1.21B-1.26B636.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
561.00M1.19B3.48B455.00M1.32B406.00M
Total Assets
38.23B37.77B32.97B32.79B29.68B25.21B
Total Debt
17.68B17.36B14.68B13.34B11.01B9.88B
Net Debt
17.12B16.18B11.20B12.88B9.68B9.48B
Total Liabilities
33.39B32.19B27.64B27.87B21.39B16.85B
Stockholders Equity
4.83B5.57B5.31B4.90B8.29B8.37B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.47B2.48B3.78B-816.00M-1.24B2.08B
Operating Cash Flow
4.85B4.56B5.45B485.00M-206.00M3.34B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.81B-5.28B-2.15B-1.24B-1.15B-1.57B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.56B-1.60B-294.00M-80.00M2.27B-1.80B

Vistra Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price185.10
Price Trends
50DMA
147.33
Positive
100DMA
142.68
Positive
200DMA
138.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
8.81
Negative
RSI
72.21
Negative
STOCH
92.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 185.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.29, above the 50-day MA of 147.33, and above the 200-day MA of 138.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.

Vistra Energy Risk Analysis

Vistra Energy disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vistra Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
VSVST
77
Outperform
$62.81B29.0346.29%0.49%49.22%313.49%
WEWEC
77
Outperform
$33.25B20.3412.96%3.43%4.42%11.98%
AEAEP
74
Outperform
$54.35B19.6310.41%3.66%4.20%-3.64%
PPPPL
71
Outperform
$24.96B25.217.00%3.23%5.62%30.02%
NRNRG
71
Outperform
$29.70B23.9344.91%1.16%2.57%-10.19%
67
Neutral
$16.04B16.834.58%3.61%4.77%6.10%
PNPNW
64
Neutral
$10.58B17.609.08%4.04%10.69%12.37%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VST
Vistra Energy
185.10
97.48
111.25%
AEP
American Electric Power
101.75
16.80
19.78%
NRG
NRG Energy
151.92
71.52
88.96%
PNW
Pinnacle West Capital
88.57
15.86
21.81%
PPL
PPL
34.30
7.01
25.69%
WEC
WEC Energy Group
104.19
27.59
36.02%

Vistra Energy Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Vistra Energy Acquires Natural Gas Facilities for $1.9B
Positive
May 21, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Vistra Corp. announced its agreement to acquire seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity. This acquisition, valued at $1.9 billion, is expected to enhance Vistra’s industry-leading generation portfolio and deliver immediate financial benefits, including accretion in Ongoing Operations AFCFbG per share. The transaction, which diversifies Vistra’s natural gas fleet across key U.S. markets, is subject to regulatory approvals and is anticipated to close in late 2025 or early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VST) stock is a Buy with a $141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vistra Energy stock, see the VST Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Vistra Energy Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 5, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Vistra Corp. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation were approved. These amendments included officer exculpation under Delaware law, the repeal of provisions favoring former principal stockholders, and the removal of supermajority voting standards, which were replaced with a simple majority standard. Additionally, the company’s 2025 Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the year ending December 31, 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.