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Vistra Corp
(NYSE:VST)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$175.00
▲(25.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and strong operating cash generation, supported by a constructive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance and large projected 2026–2027 cash availability. Offsetting these positives are high leverage and volatile free cash flow, mixed technical momentum (negative MACD despite an uptrend), and a valuation that looks relatively full with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Operational reliability
High fleet availability and improved generation EBITDA indicate effective maintenance execution and dependable operating performance. Sustained reliability supports capacity-market participation, improves asset utilization, and strengthens Vistra’s ability to convert its generation portfolio into recurring earnings.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Persistently high leverage leaves Vistra with less financial flexibility than a lightly indebted operator. Debt obligations can constrain capital allocation, increase sensitivity to earnings volatility, and make it harder to fund growth or absorb weaker market conditions without relying on asset sales or refinancing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operational reliability
High fleet availability and improved generation EBITDA indicate effective maintenance execution and dependable operating performance. Sustained reliability supports capacity-market participation, improves asset utilization, and strengthens Vistra’s ability to convert its generation portfolio into recurring earnings.
Read all positive factors
Vistra Corp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Revenue by Segment
Breaks revenue into the company’s major businesses (generation, retail energy, etc.), revealing which activities drive top-line growth. Because Vistra mixes wholesale market sales and retail contracts, changes in segment revenue expose sensitivity to power prices, weather and customer demand and help gauge stability of future cash flows.
Breaks revenue into the company’s major businesses (generation, retail energy, etc.), revealing which activities drive top-line growth. Because Vistra mixes wholesale market sales and retail contracts, changes in segment revenue expose sensitivity to power prices, weather and customer demand and help gauge stability of future cash flows.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVistra Corp (VST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$54.20B
Dividend Yield0.57%
Average Volume (3M)5.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.0
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth-20.55%
EPS Growth-6.51%
CountryUS
Employees6,390
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.99
Shares Outstanding335,635,200
10 Day Avg. Volume9,193,604
30 Day Avg. Volume5,900,397
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.06
Price to Book (P/B)10.73
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio424.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit36.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$219.50Price Target Upside57.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)8.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.49B
Vistra Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset,...
How the Company Makes Money
Vistra makes money primarily by producing electricity and selling it into competitive wholesale power markets and by selling electricity (and related offerings) directly to end-use customers through retail power plans.
1) Wholesale generation rev...
Vistra Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive picture driven by strong second-quarter execution (Q2 Adjusted EBITDA up ~31% YoY, generation EBITDA up ~68%), excellent operational reliability (>97% fleet availability), robust cash generation (> $10B projected across 2026–2027) and disciplined capital return (>$6.5B repurchased to date). Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and maintained 2027 midpoint opportunity while pursuing growth via strategic investments (Helix, Cogentrix, PJM nuclear PPAs) and preserving flexibility for further share buybacks. Offsetting these positives are market and policy headwinds—softening ERCOT forwards, battery-driven price compression, higher new-build costs, and Texas/market regulatory uncertainty (data center audits and evolving market constructs)—which create near-to-intermediate term visibility challenges. Overall, the company's operational and financial momentum outweighs the headwinds, but execution risks and regulatory developments remain important near-term variables.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up roughly 30.7% year-over-year vs. Q2 2025 (approximately $1.35 billion), driven by both generation and retail contributions.
Negative Updates
ERCOT Forward Curve Weakness
ERCOT forward curves have softened meaningfully vs. the October 31, 2025 basis used for prior 2027 assumptions, creating a headwind to 2027 results that is only partially offset by higher PJM prices, hedging, and nuclear PTC protections; management expects a bias toward the lower end of the 2027 range absent incremental positives.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Q2 Adjusted EBITDA of $1.767 billion, up roughly 30.7% year-over-year vs. Q2 2025 (approximately $1.35 billion), driven by both generation and retail contributions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vistra reaffirmed 2026 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA $6.8B–$7.6B and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth $3.925B–$4.725B and said it is confident of delivering at or above the midpoints; it maintained a 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4B–$7.8B (noting lower ERCOT forwards are partially offset by higher PJM prices, hedges and the nuclear PTC) and said the Cogentrix acquisition and Meta PJM PPA are excluded from that range and could add roughly $700M to the 2027 midpoint. Management expects to generate more than $10B of available cash in 2026–2027, has allocated roughly $3B to shareholders in 2026–2027, retired ~171M shares at an average ~$38/share (returning >$6.5B through Aug 3) with ~$1.2B of repurchase authority remaining (expected to be exhausted by end‑2027), plans $4.5B–$5B of accretive growth spend (Cogentrix, Permian Peakers, PJM nuclear PPA, Oak Hill 2, and a Helix commitment up to $1B, >$500M subject to milestones), and expects about $2B–$2.5B of additional cash to allocate through year‑end 2027 while targeting mid‑teens levered returns and higher credit ratings.Vistra Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.98B | 16.97B | 19.38B | 15.54B | 17.84B | 13.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.07B | 2.97B | 7.69B | 5.17B | 3.81B | 60.00M |
| EBITDA | 6.54B | 5.25B | 7.19B | 4.71B | 1.34B | 926.00M |
| Net Income | 2.22B | 944.00M | 2.66B | 1.49B | -1.23B | -1.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.60B | 41.55B | 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 435.00M | 816.00M | 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.89B | 20.39B | 17.36B | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.11B | 36.44B | 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.48B | 5.11B | 5.57B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.38B | 129.00M | 2.48B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.12B | 4.07B | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.00B | -4.40B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -74.00M | -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B |
Vistra Corp Technical Analysis
Positive
139.03
Price Trends
143.73
Positive
149.63
Positive
154.30
Positive
Market Momentum
3.84
Negative
64.48
Neutral
79.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 139.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.40, below the 50-day MA of 143.73, and below the 200-day MA of 154.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VST.
Vistra Corp Risk Analysis
Vistra Corp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vistra Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $161.41B | 17.31 | 16.82% | 3.15% | 11.83% | 55.48% | |
68 Neutral | $54.20B | 26.96 | 41.48% | 0.57% | -20.55% | -6.51% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $105.61B | 28.97 | 14.69% | 0.56% | 20.74% | 7.00% | |
63 Neutral | $43.11B | 15.24 | 9.61% | 3.98% | 6.56% | 3.72% | |
63 Neutral | $17.91B | -93.71 | -14.09% | ― | 27.47% | -208.54% | |
50 Neutral | $22.70B | 28.41 | 25.38% | 1.73% | 12.70% | 54.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
VST
Vistra Corp
161.48
-46.86
-22.49%
EXC
Exelon
41.76
-3.43
-7.59%
NEE
NextEra Energy
77.38
-4.56
-5.57%
NRG
NRG Energy
107.97
-58.74
-35.23%
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation
298.07
-80.72
-21.31%
TLN
Talen Energy Corp
378.57
-57.26
-13.14%
Vistra Corp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Corp Completes $1.5 Billion Subordinated Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 24, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Vistra Operations Company LLC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Vistra Corp, completed an underwritten public offering of $850 million of 7.000% Series A Junior Subordinated Notes due 2057 and $650 million of 7.250% Se...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistra Corp Expands Receivables Facilities, Enhancing Liquidity
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
On July 10, 2026, TXU Energy Retail Company LLC, TXU Energy Receivables Company LLC and Vistra Operations Company LLC amended their existing receivables purchase agreement, increasing the aggregate commitment under the accounts receivable securiti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vistra Secures PJM Capacity, Bolstering Future Revenue Visibility
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Vistra Corp. reported results from the PJM Interconnection capacity auction for the 2028/2029 planning year, clearing about 10,924 megawatts of capacity at a weighted average price of $325 per megawatt-day. The company’s re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.