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Affirm Holdings
(NASDAQ:AFRM)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
▼(-3.77% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
AFRM’s score is led by improving financial performance—particularly strong operating/free cash flow and a much better leverage profile—supported by a positive earnings call highlighting profitability execution and product traction. The score is held back by the latest sharp revenue decline and inconsistent margin fields (reducing confidence in reported profitability), plus a high P/E valuation. Technical indicators are generally neutral, offering limited additional support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Affirm’s substantial operating and free cash flow provides funding for continued product development and market expansion while reducing reliance on external financing. If sustained, this cash generation can strengthen resilience, support investment, and improve flexibility in managing credit and funding cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue sustainability concerns
The sharp reported revenue contraction makes it harder to establish a dependable growth trajectory, even though profitability improved substantially. Inconsistent gross-profit and EBIT margin data also reduce confidence in the durability and quality of current earnings, raising execution risk over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Affirm’s substantial operating and free cash flow provides funding for continued product development and market expansion while reducing reliance on external financing. If sustained, this cash generation can strengthen resilience, support investment, and improve flexibility in managing credit and funding cycles.
Read all positive factors
Affirm Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Active Consumers
Tracks the number of unique users who have made a purchase using Affirm, reflecting customer engagement and growth potential.
Tracks the number of unique users who have made a purchase using Affirm, reflecting customer engagement and growth potential.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAffirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)2.64
Revenue Growth32.43%
EPS Growth3583.15%
CountryUS
Employees2,358
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.71
Shares Outstanding296,881,960
10 Day Avg. Volume4,262,600
30 Day Avg. Volume5,166,826
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)4.98
Price to Sales (P/S)6.92
P/FCF Ratio27.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$101.54Price Target Upside30.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering29
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.49B
Affirm Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Affirm Holdings, Inc. provides a digital and mobile-first commerce platform that operates across the United States and Canada. This platform offers consumers a point-of-sale financing solution, delivers various tools for merchants, and includes a ...
How the Company Makes Money
Affirm primarily makes money by facilitating consumer installment loans at checkout and earning revenue from both merchants and consumers, as well as from funding-related activities. Key revenue streams include: (1) Merchant network revenue: fees ...
Affirm Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operating momentum: record quarterly profitability, robust product-level growth (Pay-in-X +41%, Affirm Card engagement ~2x spend, services volume ~2x YoY), healthy capital markets execution, and disciplined credit management. Challenges highlighted were largely execution and timing related — improving in-store flows, finishing longer-term product builds (Edge, leasing), and typical funding/quarterly variability (ABS/gain-on-sale, tax-rate volatility). Overall the positives around profitability, product traction, and controlled credit risks materially outweighed the operational and timing headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Profitability
Management stated this was Affirm's most profitable quarter ever (fiscal Q4 FY2026), delivered even without a tax allowance release, highlighting strong profitability execution across the core business.
Negative Updates
In-Store Experience Friction
Management acknowledged material friction scaling in-store usage (connectivity issues, POS integration, QR/barcode limits, handling declines in physical retail), and emphasized multiple engineering/product improvements are required to meaningfully ramp offline adoption.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability
Management stated this was Affirm's most profitable quarter ever (fiscal Q4 FY2026), delivered even without a tax allowance release, highlighting strong profitability execution across the core business.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Affirm's guidance for fiscal 2027 emphasized stable unit economics and funding: management expects revenue less transaction costs of about 4.16% (slightly above their mid‑term 3.25%–4% range), a run‑rate GAAP tax rate in the mid‑ to high‑20% range (with potential quarter‑to‑quarter volatility), and a similar funding mix and ABS plan to fiscal 2026 (they did two non‑consolidated ABS deals in FY26). They provided GAAP operating income and share‑count building blocks for EPS but did not give an exact EPS guide, noting tax‑rate variability; product mix commentary noted >80% interest‑bearing on direct‑to‑consumer, Pay‑in‑X growth of ~41%, Affirm Card attach at ~19% of actives with ~30% of card transactions offline, and ongoing merchant expansion (available at ~80 of the top 250 e‑commerce sites and ~10% of e‑commerce merchants).Affirm Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.95B | 3.22B | 2.32B | 1.59B | 1.35B |
| Gross Profit | 2.73B | 2.18B | 1.48B | 714.82M | 772.84M |
| EBITDA | 1.25B | 711.99M | -2.23M | -671.60M | -602.41M |
| Net Income | 1.93B | 52.19M | -517.76M | -985.35M | -707.42M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.79B | 11.15B | 9.52B | 8.16B | 6.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.60B | 2.23B | 2.14B | 2.07B | 2.85B |
| Total Debt | 9.82B | 7.85B | 6.61B | 5.45B | 4.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.31B | 8.09B | 6.79B | 5.62B | 4.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.48B | 3.07B | 2.73B | 2.53B | 2.62B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 992.63M | 601.72M | 290.84M | -108.59M | -273.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 793.91M | 450.14M | 12.18M | -162.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.55B | -1.08B | -1.33B | -1.65B | -2.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.01B | 751.42M | 913.15M | 1.35B | 2.04B |
Affirm Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
77.94
Price Trends
73.38
Negative
73.19
Negative
66.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.35
Positive
44.72
Neutral
26.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFRM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 77.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.93, above the 50-day MA of 73.38, and above the 200-day MA of 66.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AFRM.
Affirm Holdings Risk Analysis
Affirm Holdings disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Affirm Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Affirm Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $44.49B | 129.00 | 1.62% | ― | 5.07% | -87.94% | |
71 Outperform | $2.42B | 50.57 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
68 Neutral | $23.38B | 12.12 | 47.91% | ― | 32.43% | 3583.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.77B | 173.42 | 1.36% | ― | 22.41% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $2.93B | 56.99 | 5.65% | ― | 32.44% | -78.82% | |
54 Neutral | $6.99B | -32.38 | -5.80% | ― | 34.10% | -28.93% |
* Financial Sector Average
AFRM
Affirm Holdings
69.23
-8.20
-10.59%
XYZ
Block
73.53
-3.28
-4.27%
FOUR
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PAYO
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17.63%
MQ
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17.00
-3.40
-16.69%
KLAR
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12.39
-28.35
-69.59%
Affirm Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Affirm Expands Executive Leadership, Appoints Michael Linford President
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
On August 25, 2026, Affirm’s Board appointed Michael Linford as President, effective August 27, 2026, expanding his remit beyond his prior role as Chief Operating Officer and, earlier, Chief Financial Officer. Linford now oversees legal, com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.