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Shift4 Payments
(NYSE:FOUR)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(6.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/14/26
The score is anchored by a mixed financial profile: strong and improving free cash flow is offset by thin net profitability, a sharp TTM revenue decline, and elevated leverage. The earnings call supports the outlook with strong Q1 execution and maintained FY26 growth guidance, while technicals show improving intermediate momentum but a weaker longer-term trend. Valuation is a notable constraint given the high P/E and no dividend support, and recent financing activity modestly increases leverage risk despite better liquidity duration.
Positive Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Consistent and improving free cash flow (TTM +14.9%) demonstrates durable cash-generation from operations and improved working-capital dynamics. Strong FCF supports debt repayment, share repurchases and reinvestment, increasing flexibility to fund growth or weather downturns over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Sustained high leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.8x) and incremental secured term debt raise interest and refinancing sensitivity, constraining financial flexibility. Elevated secured borrowings heighten downside risk if revenue growth slows or rates rise, making deleveraging a multi-quarter priority.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Consistent and improving free cash flow (TTM +14.9%) demonstrates durable cash-generation from operations and improved working-capital dynamics. Strong FCF supports debt repayment, share repurchases and reinvestment, increasing flexibility to fund growth or weather downturns over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Shift4 Payments Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
End to End Payment Volume
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Measures the total dollar amount processed through Shift4's payment platform, indicating the company's market reach, transaction growth, and overall business momentum.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShift4 Payments (FOUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.99B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)56.7
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth28.28%
EPS Growth-72.43%
CountryUS
Employees6,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding79,328,926
10 Day Avg. Volume1,126,765
30 Day Avg. Volume1,643,129
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.83
Price to Book (P/B)2.97
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio8.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$60.50Price Target Upside21.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)5.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.54B
Shift4 Payments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers comprehensive integrated payment processing and technology solutions across the United States. The company facilitates omni-channel card acceptance and processing, encompassing traditional credit and debit cards, con...
How the Company Makes Money
Shift4 primarily makes money by facilitating electronic payment transactions for merchants and earning revenue tied to payment volume and related services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Payment processing and acquiring economics: Shif...
Shift4 Payments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable, multi-dimensional growth with strong revenue, margin and cash generation metrics, notable international product and merchant wins, and disciplined capital allocation. Key near-term risks include travel-related headwinds to the tax-free shopping business, TFS seasonality affecting Q2 cash flow, modest same-store sales in SMB restaurants, and FX/regional volatility. On balance the positives (robust growth, high margins, international scaling and product traction) significantly outweigh the lowlights, although management remains appropriately cautious in guidance.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $549M grew 49% year-over-year, and gross revenue of $1.12B exceeded guidance.
Negative Updates
Travel Disruption Impacting Tax-Free Shopping (TFS)
TFS grew only 4% on a pro forma basis and experienced an estimated $4M–$6M headwind in March from the Middle East conflict; management embeds an approximate $20M travel disruption impact in Q2 GRLNF guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) of $549M grew 49% year-over-year, and gross revenue of $1.12B exceeded guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shift4 left its full‑year 2026 outlook unchanged, reiterating expected gross revenue less network fees (GRLNF) growth of 26%–31%; for Q2 management guided GRLNF of $615 million (including an approx. $20 million travel‑disruption headwind), gross revenue of $1.17 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $278 million and adjusted free cash flow of $10 million. (For reference, Q1 results were: GRLNF $549M, +49% YoY; gross revenue $1.12B; adjusted EBITDA $234M and a 43% margin, +39% YoY; adjusted free cash flow $88M, +26% YoY; volumes $56B, +24%, with blended spreads of 61 bps.) Q1 disaggregated metrics included payments‑based revenue less network fees of $345M (+25% YoY; Americas +15%, worldwide ex‑Americas +51%), subscription & other +11%, and tax‑free shopping (TFS) +4% pro forma (with an estimated $4M–$6M March headwind from the Middle East conflict); management also noted adjusted EPS $0.97, adjusted FCF of $0.95/share (98% conversion), repurchases of 5.5M shares ($600M of a $1B program), pro forma net leverage ~3.7x (intent not to exceed ~3.75x) and that TFS is H1 cash‑consumptive / H2 cash‑generative.Shift4 Payments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.45B | 4.18B | 3.33B | 2.56B | 1.99B | 1.37B |
| Gross Profit | 1.56B | 1.43B | 973.10M | 687.80M | 470.20M | 278.40M |
| EBITDA | 855.40M | 817.00M | 356.80M | 366.20M | 268.50M | 55.30M |
| Net Income | 102.10M | 119.00M | 229.60M | 86.20M | 75.10M | -48.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 8.76B | 8.71B | 5.04B | 3.39B | 2.55B | 2.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 964.00M | 1.21B | 455.00M | 776.50M | 1.23B |
| Total Debt | 4.58B | 4.62B | 2.88B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.98B | 6.76B | 4.02B | 2.52B | 2.07B | 1.94B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.65B | 1.44B | 806.60M | 653.30M | 347.30M | 272.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 615.50M | 499.00M | 310.60M | 250.70M | -104.60M | -56.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 671.70M | 634.00M | 500.30M | 388.30M | 275.40M | 29.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.90B | -3.00B | -691.10M | -301.90M | -516.80M | -196.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.73B | 2.06B | 929.20M | -152.20M | -214.60M | 471.20M |
Shift4 Payments Technical Analysis
Positive
49.66
Price Trends
44.10
Positive
44.96
Positive
56.11
Negative
Market Momentum
2.18
Negative
60.46
Neutral
59.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.19, above the 50-day MA of 44.10, and below the 200-day MA of 56.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FOUR.
Shift4 Payments Risk Analysis
Shift4 Payments disclosed 89 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shift4 Payments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shift4 Payments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.41B | 35.44 | 10.01% | ― | 7.19% | -36.03% | |
77 Outperform | $4.27B | 22.29 | 37.04% | ― | 46.60% | 66.04% | |
69 Neutral | $1.85B | 783.93 | 0.27% | ― | 23.39% | -94.59% | |
65 Neutral | $5.70B | 18.11 | 26.96% | ― | 3.29% | 14.76% | |
62 Neutral | $3.10B | 10.72 | 24.04% | ― | 7.22% | 6.31% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $3.99B | 56.75 | 6.42% | ― | 28.28% | -72.43% |
* Technology Sector Average
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
50.87
-54.99
-51.95%
EEFT
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81.35
-19.67
-19.47%
WEX
WEX
163.49
9.31
6.04%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.13
0.30
4.39%
MQ
Marqeta
17.56
-5.84
-24.96%
DLO
DLocal
14.71
3.99
37.23%
Shift4 Payments Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Shift4 Payments Adds $1 Billion Secured Term Loan
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Shift4 Payments, LLC and certain wholly owned subsidiaries executed Amendment No. 4 to their Second Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement, adding a $1.0 billion incremental senior secured term loan that is fungible with...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Shift4 Payments Shareholders Back Governance and Capital Changes
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Shift4 Payments, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with about 87% of outstanding Class A shares represented, and shareholders elected Sam Bakhshandehpour, Jonathan Halkyard and Nancy Disman as Class III directors to s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.