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Marqeta
(NASDAQ:MQ)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(7.30% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/25/26
The score is primarily supported by strengthening financial performance (strong free cash flow and a conservatively capitalized balance sheet) and a constructive earnings update showing continued TPV growth and consecutive GAAP profitability. Offsetting factors are a weak technical backdrop (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a stretched valuation (very high P/E with no dividend support), plus management’s guidance for a near-term growth step-down driven by customer and timing headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong payment volume and revenue growth
Sustained TPV growth above 30% for four consecutive quarters indicates strong customer usage and platform scale. Rising revenue and gross profit show that Marqeta is converting expanding payment activity into durable operating growth.
Negative Factors
Expected second-half growth deceleration
The anticipated slowdown shows that reported growth remains exposed to renewal timing, acquisition comparisons and customer-specific effects. Lower near-term expansion could constrain operating leverage and make it harder to establish a consistently high-growth earnings profile.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong payment volume and revenue growth
Sustained TPV growth above 30% for four consecutive quarters indicates strong customer usage and platform scale. Rising revenue and gross profit show that Marqeta is converting expanding payment activity into durable operating growth.
Read all positive factors
Marqeta Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Processing Volume
Measures the dollar value of payments processed through Marqeta’s platform, a direct indicator of customer usage and network scale. Rising TPV signals stronger adoption and more opportunity to monetize, while slowing TPV points to demand weakness. Comparing revenue to TPV (revenue per dollar processed) shows how effectively Marqeta is converting volume into revenue; big customers or seasonal swings can lift TPV without a matching revenue increase if pricing or mix changes.
Measures the dollar value of payments processed through Marqeta’s platform, a direct indicator of customer usage and network scale. Rising TPV signals stronger adoption and more opportunity to monetize, while slowing TPV points to demand weakness. Comparing revenue to TPV (revenue per dollar processed) shows how effectively Marqeta is converting volume into revenue; big customers or seasonal swings can lift TPV without a matching revenue increase if pricing or mix changes.
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The Fly
The FlyMarqeta (MQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)164.1
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth22.41%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees938
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding95,911,790
10 Day Avg. Volume1,092,690
30 Day Avg. Volume1,098,934
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.88
Price to Sales (P/S)3.51
P/FCF Ratio13.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.75Price Target Upside14.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$704.80M
Marqeta Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Marqeta, Inc. engages in the creation of digital payment technology. The firm develops a modern card issuing platform, providing infrastructure and tools for building configurable payment cards. It provides its customers issuer processor services ...
How the Company Makes Money
Marqeta primarily generates revenue from transaction-based fees tied to card usage on programs it supports. The company earns revenue when end-users make purchases using cards issued and processed through Marqeta’s platform; these economics are ge...
Marqeta Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: continued strong TPV growth (+32% YoY), expanding international mix (+40% YoY outside the U.S.), product innovation (stablecoin cards, multi-rail money movement, enhanced fraud), larger enterprise deal sizes (+90% average deal size), improved margins (adjusted EBITDA +31%) and consecutive GAAP profitability (~$8M). Offsetting these positives are near-term headwinds: a planned step-down in second-half growth, Cash App new issuance diversification (initial ~10% decline in new issuance), BNPL single-use virtual card load balancing, a small decline in take rate, and renewal/lapping effects that reduce near-term growth. Overall, the company demonstrates solid underlying momentum and profitability, but near-term growth moderation and customer-specific dynamics introduce caution for the second half and potentially early 2027.Positive Updates
TPV Growth and Scale
Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached $120 billion, up 32% year-over-year — the fourth consecutive quarter with growth above 30%, and the third consecutive quarter with TPV above $100 billion.
Negative Updates
Second-Half Deceleration and Narrowed Guidance
Management expects a notable step-down in growth: Q3 net revenue growth of 6–8% and gross profit growth of 5–7%, representing roughly a 10-point deceleration in gross profit growth from Q2. Full-year net revenue growth guidance narrowed to 12–13% and full-year gross profit growth to 11–12%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
TPV Growth and Scale
Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached $120 billion, up 32% year-over-year — the fourth consecutive quarter with growth above 30%, and the third consecutive quarter with TPV above $100 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Marqeta guided Q3 2026 net revenue growth of 6–8% and gross profit growth of 5–7%, calling for a roughly 10‑point deceleration in gross profit growth versus Q2 driven by 2–3 points from a large renewal timing shift, ~4 points from lapping the TransactPay acquisition, 1–2 points from lending/BNPL comparisons, and ~2 points from Cash App new‑issuance diversification; Q3 adjusted operating expenses are expected to be roughly flat YoY, adjusted EBITDA growth of 20–25%, and GAAP net income in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit millions. For the full year Marqeta narrowed its outlook to net revenue growth of 12–13% and gross profit growth of ~11–12% (toward the high end of the prior range), now expects adjusted EBITDA growth in the low‑30s and GAAP net income in the high‑$20 millions—driven in part by Q2 outperformance (TPV $120B, 32% TPV growth; Q2 net revenue $176M; gross profit $122M; adjusted EBITDA $37M; GAAP net income ≈$8M).Marqeta Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 677.21M | 624.88M | 507.00M | 676.17M | 748.21M | 517.17M |
| Gross Profit | 387.13M | 69.69M | 351.85M | 329.51M | 320.00M | 231.71M |
| EBITDA | 45.79M | 13.83M | 45.54M | -219.83M | -181.03M | -161.03M |
| Net Income | 10.38M | -13.93M | 27.29M | -222.96M | -184.78M | -163.93M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.39M | 1.53B | 1.46B | 1.59B | 1.77B | 1.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 700.90K | 1.08B | 1.10B | 1.25B | 1.62B | 1.71B |
| Total Debt | 6.75K | 21.81M | 13.22M | 16.93M | 12.43M | 15.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 676.67K | 763.08M | 378.19M | 346.30M | 297.39M | 256.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 715.56K | 761.96M | 1.09B | 1.24B | 1.47B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 170.65M | 160.79M | 55.75M | 8.45M | -16.89M | 54.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 199.90M | 162.62M | 58.17M | 21.10M | -12.97M | 56.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 230.64M | 271.11M | 70.79M | 38.52M | 28.72M | -329.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -217.70M | -347.32M | -186.91M | -261.79M | -79.49M | 1.30B |
Marqeta Technical Analysis
Negative
16.31
Price Trends
16.49
Negative
16.42
Negative
17.08
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Negative
46.77
Neutral
61.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.36, below the 50-day MA of 16.49, and below the 200-day MA of 17.08, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MQ.
Marqeta Risk Analysis
Marqeta disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Marqeta reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Marqeta Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.41B | 50.42 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
71 Outperform | $1.79B | 19.32 | 15.04% | 0.67% | 12.36% | -28.24% | |
69 Neutral | $2.41B | 42.11 | 7.49% | ― | 8.87% | 562.42% | |
67 Neutral | $1.70B | 164.08 | 0.27% | ― | 22.41% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $3.61B | 537.70 | 2.41% | ― | 9.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
MQ
Marqeta
16.08
-9.40
-36.89%
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PAYO
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Marqeta Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Marqeta Appoints Eugenia Gibbons as Chief Product Officer
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
On August 25, 2026, Marqeta announced the appointment of Eugenia Gibbons as Chief Product Officer, effective August 31, 2026, to lead strategy, design and execution across its product organization. Gibbons joins from Intuit’s Consumer Money ...
Executive/Board Changes
Marqeta Announces Finance Leadership Change After Officer Resignation
Neutral
Aug 13, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Marqeta, Inc.’s Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance, Sarah Barkema, notified the company of her decision to resign from these roles effective August 21, 2026. The company said her departure is no...
Executive/Board Changes
Marqeta Announces Leadership Changes in Finance and Accounting
Neutral
Aug 13, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Marqeta’s Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance, Sarah Barkema, notified the company that she will resign effective August 21, 2026, with Marqeta emphasizing that her departure is not due to any di...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Marqeta Announces New $150 Million Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Marqeta director Najuma Atkinson informed the board she would resign effective August 3, 2026, ending a three-and-a-half-year tenure during which she chaired the Compensation Committee and served on the Nomination and Governance ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Marqeta Adopts Officer Exculpation and Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Marqeta, Inc. amended its Certificate of Incorporation in Delaware to introduce officer exculpation provisions to the fullest extent allowed under state law, a move that could reduce personal liability risks for its executives an...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Marqeta Shareholders Approve Reverse Stock Split and Governance Moves
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on June 10, 2026, Marqeta shareholders elected four Class II directors to the board, ratified KPMG LLP as independent auditor for the 2026 fiscal year, and approved on an advisory basis the compensat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.