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Stoneco
(NASDAQ:STNE)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(2.25% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is primarily supported by improving profitability and strong TTM cash generation, alongside a very low P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by meaningful revenue contraction, higher leverage, and mixed earnings-call risk factors—especially elevated cost of risk and interest-rate sensitivity—while bearish technicals indicate weak near-term market momentum.
Positive Factors
Strong TTM cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow give StoneCo internal funding capacity for product investment, credit support and shareholder returns. However, prior negative cash-flow periods show that strong conversion is not yet fully consistent across cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction and compressed EBIT margin
Material revenue contraction raises questions about demand, retention and pricing power across the merchant base. The sharp reduction in operating margin limits resilience and makes future profitability more dependent on credit growth, mix and cost controls.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong TTM cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow give StoneCo internal funding capacity for product investment, credit support and shareholder returns. However, prior negative cash-flow periods show that strong conversion is not yet fully consistent across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Stoneco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Payments: Total TPV
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStoneco (STNE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.8
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth-29.50%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,367
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.16
Shares Outstanding229,177,060
10 Day Avg. Volume3,717,161
30 Day Avg. Volume3,867,143
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio-760.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.40Price Target Upside26.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)10.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.03B
Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company offers financial services, including payment,...
How the Company Makes Money
StoneCo generates revenue primarily by monetizing payment processing and other financial services provided to merchants. A major revenue stream comes from acquiring/processing card and other electronic transactions (i.e., charging merchants fees t...
Stoneco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: solid progress on strategic initiatives (brand repositioning, Pagar.me integration), meaningful growth in deposits and credit portfolio scale, disciplined capital returns and cost control. However, notable near-term headwinds remain — elevated cost of risk (21.5%), rising NPLs and provisioning, concentrated large-ticket defaults in the dedicated desk, and an adverse interest-rate shock that materially pressures 2026 pretax results. Management expects improvements in the second half but the operating backdrop is more challenging than when guidance was set.Positive Updates
TPV Reacceleration
Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth accelerated to 4% year-over-year, the first tangible sign management's retention initiatives are gaining traction (improvement versus Q1).
Negative Updates
Credit Quality Pressure and Elevated Cost of Risk
Cost of risk remained high at 21.5% for the quarter; provision expenses totaled BRL 188 million as portfolio expansion, roll-forward of late-2025/early-2026 vintages and dedicated-desk delinquencies increased provisioning needs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
TPV Reacceleration
Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth accelerated to 4% year-over-year, the first tangible sign management's retention initiatives are gaining traction (improvement versus Q1).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance of adjusted gross profit BRL 6.6–7.0 billion and adjusted basic EPS BRL 10.8–11.4, noting H1 deliveries of BRL 3.1 billion in adjusted gross profit and BRL 4.58 in adjusted basic EPS and saying they remain focused on the lower end of the ranges with performance weighted to H2 as credit revenues compound and commercial initiatives take hold. They flagged a YTD effective tax rate of 15.4% (Q2 16.4%), expect cost of risk to trend to the mid‑ to high‑teens (ending the year in the high teens), and warned every 100 bp change in Selic moves pre‑tax results by ~BRL 200–250 million (current rates ~14% vs assumed 12.5% = >BRL 300m headwind). Key operating metrics tied to the guidance included TPV +4% YoY, retail deposits BRL 10.8 billion (+22% YoY), credit portfolio BRL 3.8 billion (2x YoY) with ~BRL 300–330 million in government‑backed loans, Q2 provisions BRL 188 million and cost of risk 21.5%, coverage 204%, BRL 4.3 billion returned to shareholders in H1, and a normalized capital ratio of 26%.Stoneco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.02B | 14.15B | 12.74B | 11.36B | 9.02B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 10.16B | 10.79B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 6.35B | 2.86B |
| EBITDA | 6.63B | 5.72B | 6.41B | 5.87B | 4.21B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 3.31B | 2.32B | -1.52B | 1.59B | -519.42M | -1.36B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 57.78B | 62.27B | 54.81B | 48.69B | 42.25B | 42.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.18B | 5.94B | 14.55B | 12.06B | 8.93B | 8.84B |
| Total Debt | 16.24B | 17.57B | 12.90B | 5.52B | 5.55B | 8.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 48.76B | 50.44B | 42.99B | 34.02B | 29.30B | 28.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.98B | 11.78B | 11.78B | 14.62B | 12.89B | 13.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.03B | -28.43M | -4.89B | 437.41M | 960.44M | 2.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.82B | 663.28M | -3.62B | 1.65B | 1.68B | 3.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.53B | -1.73B | 1.59B | -845.44M | -1.87B | -2.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.56B | 912.45M | 5.04B | -148.80M | -2.81B | 1.42B |
Stoneco Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.78
Price Trends
10.66
Negative
10.96
Negative
11.84
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
42.18
Neutral
54.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.19, below the 50-day MA of 10.66, and below the 200-day MA of 11.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for STNE.
Stoneco Risk Analysis
Stoneco disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stoneco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stoneco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $8.63B | 27.79 | 17.29% | ― | 15.24% | ― | |
83 Outperform | $4.38B | 22.26 | 37.65% | 1.36% | 57.03% | 38.31% | |
74 Outperform | $2.41B | 50.42 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
65 Neutral | $3.79B | 72.87 | 5.65% | ― | 32.44% | -78.82% | |
62 Neutral | $2.38B | 3.80 | 29.69% | ― | -29.50% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $2.51B | 6.19 | 14.60% | 6.61% | 11.04% | 15.45% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STNE
Stoneco
9.72
-3.99
-29.12%
PAGS
Pagseguro Digital
9.04
0.52
6.09%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
46.25
-45.28
-49.47%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.12
0.24
3.49%
PATH
UiPath
16.76
5.50
48.85%
DLO
DLocal
15.36
1.04
7.27%
Stoneco Corporate Events
StoneCo Files Reviewed Interim Financial Statements for First Half of 2026
Aug 13, 2026
StoneCo Ltd. filed a Form 6-K for June 2026, furnishing unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2026, together with a review report from Ernst Young. The filing, signed on August 13, 2026 by CFO and Investor R...
StoneCo Delivers Modest 2Q26 Growth, Boosts Payouts After Linx Sale
Aug 13, 2026
StoneCo reported on August 13, 2026, that second-quarter 2026 revenue from continuing operations rose 2.5% year on year to R$3.59 billion, driven mainly by its credit product, while adjusted gross profit was broadly flat annually but improved sequ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.