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Stoneco
(NASDAQ:STNE)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(27.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/06/26
The score reflects improving profitability and strong TTM cash generation, tempered by contracting revenue, compressed operating margin, and elevated leverage. The earnings call reinforces near-term risk from high credit costs and interest-rate headwinds despite reiterated guidance. Technicals are supportive but look overbought, while the low P/E provides meaningful valuation support.
Positive Factors
Large and growing merchant network
A 4.8 million merchant base and continued year-over-year growth provide StoneCo with meaningful distribution scale in Brazil. A larger installed base can support recurring payment activity, broader product adoption, and more efficient cross-selling across banking, credit, and software services.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction and compressed operating margin
The combination of declining revenue and a sharply lower operating margin raises questions about the durability of recent earnings improvement. If weaker volume, mix, or monetization persists, StoneCo may have less operating leverage to absorb expenses and sustain profitability while pursuing growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large and growing merchant network
A 4.8 million merchant base and continued year-over-year growth provide StoneCo with meaningful distribution scale in Brazil. A larger installed base can support recurring payment activity, broader product adoption, and more efficient cross-selling across banking, credit, and software services.
Read all positive factors
Stoneco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Payments: Total TPV
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Measures the total transaction volume processed, indicating the scale of Stoneco's payment operations and its market penetration.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStoneco (STNE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.99B
Dividend Yield20.7%
Average Volume (3M)6.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth-29.50%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,367
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.16
Shares Outstanding229,177,060
10 Day Avg. Volume8,886,374
30 Day Avg. Volume6,941,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.83
Price to Sales (P/S)1.53
P/FCF Ratio-760.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.52Price Target Upside28.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)10.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.89B
Stoneco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StoneCo Ltd. provides financial technology and software solutions to merchants and integrated partners to conduct electronic commerce across in-store, online, and mobile channels in Brazil. The company offers financial services, including payment,...
How the Company Makes Money
StoneCo primarily generates revenue by monetizing merchant payment processing and related financial services in Brazil. A key revenue stream is acquiring and merchant services: the company earns fees when merchants accept card and other electronic...
Stoneco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: solid progress on strategic initiatives (brand repositioning, Pagar.me integration), meaningful growth in deposits and credit portfolio scale, disciplined capital returns and cost control. However, notable near-term headwinds remain — elevated cost of risk (21.5%), rising NPLs and provisioning, concentrated large-ticket defaults in the dedicated desk, and an adverse interest-rate shock that materially pressures 2026 pretax results. Management expects improvements in the second half but the operating backdrop is more challenging than when guidance was set.Positive Updates
TPV Reacceleration
Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth accelerated to 4% year-over-year, the first tangible sign management's retention initiatives are gaining traction (improvement versus Q1).
Negative Updates
Credit Quality Pressure and Elevated Cost of Risk
Cost of risk remained high at 21.5% for the quarter; provision expenses totaled BRL 188 million as portfolio expansion, roll-forward of late-2025/early-2026 vintages and dedicated-desk delinquencies increased provisioning needs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
TPV Reacceleration
Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth accelerated to 4% year-over-year, the first tangible sign management's retention initiatives are gaining traction (improvement versus Q1).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance of adjusted gross profit BRL 6.6–7.0 billion and adjusted basic EPS BRL 10.8–11.4, noting H1 deliveries of BRL 3.1 billion in adjusted gross profit and BRL 4.58 in adjusted basic EPS and saying they remain focused on the lower end of the ranges with performance weighted to H2 as credit revenues compound and commercial initiatives take hold. They flagged a YTD effective tax rate of 15.4% (Q2 16.4%), expect cost of risk to trend to the mid‑ to high‑teens (ending the year in the high teens), and warned every 100 bp change in Selic moves pre‑tax results by ~BRL 200–250 million (current rates ~14% vs assumed 12.5% = >BRL 300m headwind). Key operating metrics tied to the guidance included TPV +4% YoY, retail deposits BRL 10.8 billion (+22% YoY), credit portfolio BRL 3.8 billion (2x YoY) with ~BRL 300–330 million in government‑backed loans, Q2 provisions BRL 188 million and cost of risk 21.5%, coverage 204%, BRL 4.3 billion returned to shareholders in H1, and a normalized capital ratio of 26%.Stoneco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.02B | 14.15B | 12.74B | 11.36B | 9.02B | 4.58B |
| Gross Profit | 10.16B | 10.79B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 6.35B | 2.86B |
| EBITDA | 6.54B | 5.72B | 6.66B | 6.13B | 4.21B | 1.36B |
| Net Income | 3.31B | 2.32B | -1.52B | 1.59B | -519.42M | -1.36B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 57.78B | 62.27B | 54.81B | 48.69B | 42.25B | 42.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.18B | 5.94B | 14.55B | 12.06B | 8.93B | 8.84B |
| Total Debt | 16.24B | 17.57B | 12.90B | 5.52B | 5.55B | 8.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 48.76B | 50.44B | 42.99B | 34.02B | 29.30B | 28.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.98B | 11.78B | 11.78B | 14.62B | 12.89B | 13.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.03B | -28.43M | -4.89B | 437.41M | 960.44M | 2.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.82B | 663.28M | -3.62B | 1.65B | 1.68B | 3.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.53B | -1.73B | 1.59B | -845.44M | -1.87B | -2.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.56B | 912.45M | 5.04B | -148.80M | -2.81B | 1.42B |
Stoneco Technical Analysis
Positive
9.78
Price Trends
10.09
Positive
10.55
Positive
11.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.55
Negative
74.08
Negative
92.73
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STNE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.20, below the 50-day MA of 10.09, and below the 200-day MA of 11.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.73 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STNE.
Stoneco Risk Analysis
Stoneco disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stoneco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stoneco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $18.20B | 37.73 | 23.79% | ― | 23.04% | 111.91% | |
76 Outperform | $4.28B | 22.00 | 37.65% | 1.30% | 57.03% | 38.31% | |
74 Outperform | $46.15B | 134.74 | 1.61% | ― | 5.07% | -87.94% | |
71 Outperform | $2.41B | 50.42 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
66 Neutral | $3.15B | 62.80 | 5.65% | ― | 32.44% | -78.82% | |
65 Neutral | $2.99B | 4.65 | 29.69% | 20.70% | -29.50% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
STNE
Stoneco
12.28
-1.76
-12.55%
XYZ
Block
76.82
0.64
0.84%
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
39.85
-37.93
-48.77%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.12
1.18
19.87%
DLO
DLocal
15.18
-0.24
-1.56%
TOST
Toast Inc
31.32
-6.47
-17.12%
Stoneco Corporate Events
StoneCo Files Reviewed Interim Financial Statements for First Half of 2026
Aug 13, 2026
StoneCo Ltd. filed a Form 6-K for June 2026, furnishing unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2026, together with a review report from Ernst Young. The filing, signed on August 13, 2026 by CFO and Investor R...
StoneCo Delivers Modest 2Q26 Growth, Boosts Payouts After Linx Sale
Aug 13, 2026
StoneCo reported on August 13, 2026, that second-quarter 2026 revenue from continuing operations rose 2.5% year on year to R$3.59 billion, driven mainly by its credit product, while adjusted gross profit was broadly flat annually but improved sequ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.