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AES
(NYSE:AES)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(8.62% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/17/26
The score is capped primarily by balance-sheet leverage and negative free cash flow despite improved profitability. Offsetting this are an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield), mildly positive technical momentum, and positive corporate developments around the pending buyout and liquidity extensions.
Positive Factors
Diversified contracted utility model
The mix of regulated distribution and contracted power generation provides multiple revenue channels and can support recurring cash flows. Regulated tariffs and long-term offtake agreements may improve earnings visibility while AES continues developing renewable and grid infrastructure assets.
Negative Factors
Very high financial leverage
The highly leveraged balance sheet reduces financial flexibility and leaves less capacity to absorb weaker earnings or cash generation. Debt service and refinancing needs can constrain investment choices, while the small equity base makes reported returns more sensitive to operating volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified contracted utility model
The mix of regulated distribution and contracted power generation provides multiple revenue channels and can support recurring cash flows. Regulated tariffs and long-term offtake agreements may improve earnings visibility while AES continues developing renewable and grid infrastructure assets.
Read all positive factors
AES Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAES (AES) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.60B
Dividend Yield4.72%
Average Volume (3M)7.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth8.22%
EPS Growth88.79%
CountryUS
Employees8,336
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryDiversified Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.08
Shares Outstanding713,438,660
10 Day Avg. Volume8,272,577
30 Day Avg. Volume7,543,519
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio-6.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside1.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.79B
AES Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The AES Corporation operates as an international enterprise primarily focused on electricity generation and distribution. Its activities involve both the ownership and management of power plants, producing and supplying electricity to a diverse cl...
How the Company Makes Money
AES primarily makes money by generating, selling, and delivering electricity through two main business types: regulated utility operations and competitive generation/energy infrastructure. In its regulated utility businesses, AES earns revenue by ...
AES Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
AES Corporation's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted significant growth in renewables, strong progress in signing new PPAs, and a robust construction pipeline. Despite challenges in rate cases and the impact of higher interest expenses, the company's reaffirmation of its financial guidance indicates a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Growth in Renewables
Renewables EBITDA increased by 46% year-to-date, driven by organic growth and new projects coming online. The installed capacity of the U.S. business is nearly 60% larger compared to two years ago.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Rate Cases
AES Indiana's rate case represents the first use of a forward-looking test year, with partial settlements filed. However, the process of finalizing the rate increases is ongoing.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Growth in Renewables
Renewables EBITDA increased by 46% year-to-date, driven by organic growth and new projects coming online. The installed capacity of the U.S. business is nearly 60% larger compared to two years ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During The AES Corporation's Q3 2025 Financial Review Call, the company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance and long-term growth rates for key financial metrics, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and parent free cash flow. AES highlighted its strong performance and strategic progress, underscored by a 46% year-to-date increase in renewables EBITDA, driven by organic growth and expansion in the U.S. renewables sector. The company expects to sign 4 gigawatts of new power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2025, with 2.2 gigawatts already signed. AES is on track to complete 3.2 gigawatts of construction projects this year, with 2.9 gigawatts completed so far. The company also reported completing 4.2 gigawatts of projects serving data centers, with an additional 4 gigawatts in its backlog. AES maintains a robust pipeline with 7.5 gigawatts of safe-harbored U.S. projects and plans to safe harbor an additional 3-4 gigawatts by mid-2026, further strengthening its competitive position. The company's U.S. utilities remain focused on providing affordable, reliable power, with significant investments in infrastructure and rate base growth. AES also highlighted its ongoing efforts to maintain investment-grade credit ratings and its commitment to executing its strategic and financial objectives effectively.AES Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.05B | 12.23B | 12.28B | 12.68B | 12.62B | 11.14B |
| Gross Profit | 2.65B | 2.21B | 2.32B | 2.52B | 2.55B | 2.71B |
| EBITDA | 4.51B | 2.94B | 3.67B | 2.53B | 1.94B | 818.00M |
| Net Income | 1.91B | 949.00M | 1.69B | 242.00M | -546.00M | -413.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 54.24B | 51.77B | 47.41B | 44.80B | 38.36B | 32.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.85B | 2.25B | 1.60B | 1.82B | 2.10B | 1.18B |
| Total Debt | 32.12B | 30.33B | 29.02B | 26.88B | 23.50B | 18.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 41.41B | 39.84B | 39.70B | 38.81B | 33.86B | 28.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.94B | 6.89B | 3.64B | 2.49B | 2.44B | 2.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.72B | -1.62B | -4.64B | -4.69B | -1.84B | -214.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.03B | 4.31B | 2.75B | 3.03B | 2.71B | 1.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.47B | -3.83B | -6.23B | -6.28B | -5.70B | -3.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 634.00M | -403.00M | 3.49B | 3.49B | 3.62B | 741.00M |
AES Technical Analysis
Positive
14.73
Price Trends
14.76
Positive
14.62
Positive
14.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
69.36
Neutral
71.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.83, below the 50-day MA of 14.76, and above the 200-day MA of 14.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AES.
AES Risk Analysis
AES disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AES reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
AES Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $10.60B | 5.67 | 37.94% | 4.72% | 8.22% | 88.79% | |
62 Neutral | $47.27B | 23.10 | 41.48% | 0.66% | -20.55% | -6.51% | |
62 Neutral | $5.22B | -1.09 | 243.54% | 5.49% | -2.38% | -301.98% | |
53 Neutral | $6.01B | 38.51 | 1.96% | 6.34% | 7.99% | 22.73% | |
51 Neutral | $15.09B | -77.40 | -14.09% | ― | 27.47% | -208.54% | |
50 Neutral | $20.43B | 25.04 | 25.38% | 1.95% | 12.70% | 54.89% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AES
AES
14.90
0.26
1.77%
NRG
NRG Energy
95.65
-64.28
-40.19%
CWEN
Clearway Energy
29.27
0.91
3.23%
VST
Vistra Corp
138.35
-62.00
-30.94%
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable
28.22
-6.15
-17.90%
TLN
Talen Energy Corp
312.69
-114.30
-26.77%
AES Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ohio Regulator Approval Advances AES Privatization Merger
Positive
Sep 17, 2026
On March 1, 2026, The AES Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Horizon Parent, L.P. and its wholly owned subsidiary Horizon Merger Sub, Inc., under which Horizon Merger Sub will merge into AES, leaving AES as the surviving corporation....
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AES Announces Executive Leadership Transition in Clean Energy
Neutral
Sep 16, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Bernerd Da Santos moved from his role as Executive Vice President and President of US Renewables at AES to become Chairman of the AES Clean Energy Board and Senior Strategic Advisor to the President. On September 14, 2026, AES ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AES Gains CFIUS Approval for Pending Horizon Merger
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
On March 1, 2026, AES entered into a merger agreement under which Horizon Merger Sub, Inc., a subsidiary of Horizon Parent, L.P., will merge with and into AES, leaving AES as the surviving corporation. On August 27, 2026, the company secured appro...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AES extends key revolving credit facilities, bolstering liquidity
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, AES amended two major revolving credit facilities arranged by Citibank, N.A. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, extending the termination date of the Citi facility by one year to August 23, 2028 and, subject to customary c...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
AES Shareholders Approve Buyout by Infrastructure Consortium
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 26, 2026, AES stockholders approved the company’s merger agreement under which a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners, now part of BlackRock, and EQT Infrastructure VI, alongside CalPERS and the Qatar Investment Authority...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.