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Clearway Energy (CWEN) AI Stock Analysis

CWEN

Clearway Energy

(NYSE:CWEN)

Select Model
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:$31.00▼(-3.22% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/07/26

CWEN’s score is driven primarily by strong recent operating/free cash flow, which helps support the business and dividend, but is tempered by meaningful leverage and volatile earnings quality. Technically, the stock remains in a weak longer-term trend with only neutral momentum signals. Valuation is mixed: a high dividend yield helps, but the P/E is elevated. The earnings call adds balanced context—near-term guidance was revised down, while long-term CAFD/share targets and a commercialized growth pipeline remain supportive.

Positive Factors
Contracted cash-flow modelLong-term contracted power sales reduce exposure to short-term wholesale price volatility and provide greater revenue visibility. This supports more predictable cash generation, strengthens planning for capital allocation, and creates a durable foundation for distributions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverageThe substantial debt burden increases financial risk and reduces flexibility if operating performance weakens or financing conditions become less favorable. Interest and refinancing obligations can compete with growth investment and distributions, making balance-sheet discipline important to long-term value creation.

Clearway Energy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Net Income BreakdownAnalyzes the components contributing to net income, providing insight into profitability and how different factors like costs, taxes, and interest impact the bottom line.

-$500.00M-$250.00M$0.00$250.00M$500.00M$750.00M$1.00BMar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Clearway’s net income is dominated by large, seasonal and accounting-driven swings in Renewables (strong summer gains, deep Q4/Q1 losses) while Corporate contains episodic one‑offs (a massive mid‑2022 gain and a large late‑2025 charge) that distort the trend. Conventional is the steadier cash engine but has softened recently; Thermal has effectively gone to zero. Management’s call underscores improving CAFD and a well‑commercialized growth pipeline, so focus on CAFD/project commercialization rather than noisy GAAP net income—while acknowledging resource timing and permitting remain execution risks.

Data provided by:The Fly

Clearway Energy (CWEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%CWEN+3.75%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$6.58B
Dividend Yield
5.79%
Average Volume (3M)
1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
42.1
Beta (1Y)
0.10
Revenue Growth
7.99%
EPS Growth
22.73%
Country
US
Employees
60
Sector
Utilities
Sector Strength
66
Industry
Renewable Utilities

Clearway Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Clearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN) operates as an energy company primarily focused on renewable power generation across the United States. Its diverse portfolio includes approximately 5,000 net megawatts (MW) of installed wind and solar projects, alongside...

How the Company Makes Money

Clearway Energy makes money primarily by generating electricity at its owned power plants and selling that electricity (and, where applicable, associated environmental attributes) under long-term contracted arrangements that are designed to produce p...

Clearway Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:4.29%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 08, 2026
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presents strong long-term conviction driven by a sizable and increasingly commercialized development pipeline, clear multi-year capital plans, accretive contracting actions, and a path to deliver top-end 2030 targets. Near-term results were impacted by weather-driven resource shortfalls that prompted a downward revision to 2026 CAFD guidance and introduced near-term sensitivity. Management emphasizes that the underlying fleet earnings power remains intact and that most growth investments are derisked and ready to be funded from a mix of retained cash flow, debt and modest equity issuance. Overall, the positive long-term visibility and multiple accretive actions outweigh the transitory operational headwinds.

Positive Updates

Q2 Financial Results
Adjusted EBITDA of $409 million and CAFD of $167 million for Q2 2026; year-to-date adjusted EBITDA $666 million and YTD CAFD $237 million.

Negative Updates

2026 CAFD Guidance Revision
2026 full-year CAFD guidance revised down to $430 million–$470 million from prior $470 million–$510 million. The midpoint fell from $490 million to $450 million (a $40 million reduction, ~8.2% decline at the midpoint). Management cites resource-driven impacts as the cause.

Company Guidance

Clearway revised its 2026 CAFD guidance down to $430M–$470M (from $470M–$510M) due to lower H1 renewable resource tied to ENSO; Q2 reported adjusted EBITDA $409M and CAFD $167M (YTD adjusted EBITDA $666M, YTD CAFD $237M). Management reaffirmed a 2027 CAFD/share target of $2.70+ and is targeting the top end or better of a 2030 CAFD/share goal (cited as ~$3.10), with conviction in delivering 7%–8%+ CAGR in CAFD/share from 2025–2030 and a long-term objective of 5%–8%+. To fund growth, Clearway expects to deploy ~$3.0B of corporate capital from 2026–2029 (with >$2.0B already identified for 2027–2029 and ~70% of needed investment commercialized), including a ~2 GW 2029 solar+storage cohort representing ~$650M of potential corporate capital, plus a ~$600M “powering” program targeted at 11%–12% CAFD yields. Funding assumptions include >$500M of retained cash flow over 2026–2029, >$1.5B of corporate debt expected in that period ($600M already raised), $0.5B–$1.0B of external equity expected ($50M raised), a target corporate leverage of 4.0–4.5x (BB rating) and a long‑term payout ratio goal of <70%; Clearway also highlights additional upside from Clearway Group’s digital infrastructure pipeline (17 GW total, >6 GW in MISO South/Wyoming) with initial generating capacity expected to begin in 2029.

Clearway Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a key strength (TTM operating cash flow $1.42B; free cash flow $0.93B, up sharply), supporting flexibility in a capital-intensive business. Offsetting this, the balance sheet is meaningfully levered (TTM debt $9.89B; elevated debt-to-equity historically) and profitability/earnings quality is mixed with modest net margins (~5.8% TTM) and notable volatility.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

38Negative

Cash Flow

74Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.57B1.43B1.37B1.31B1.19B1.29B
Gross Profit834.00M217.00M870.00M841.00M755.00M835.00M
EBITDA1.17B1.10B1.08B1.03B2.20B904.00M
Net Income91.00M169.00M88.00M79.00M582.00M51.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.77B16.66B14.33B14.70B12.31B12.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments251.00M818.00M332.00M535.00M657.00M179.00M
Total Debt9.89B10.20B7.75B8.66B7.36B8.27B
Total Liabilities11.18B10.74B8.77B9.71B8.28B9.51B
Stockholders Equity5.47B1.92B2.06B2.10B2.23B1.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow671.00M369.00M483.00M408.00M675.00M550.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.02B688.00M770.00M702.00M787.00M701.00M
Investing Cash Flow-669.00M321.00M-725.00M-523.00M1.13B88.00M
Financing Cash Flow-591.00M-924.00M-363.00M-124.00M-1.57B-600.00M

Clearway Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price32.03

Price Trends

50DMA30.84Positive
100DMA32.24Negative
200DMA34.90Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.51Negative
RSI58.01Neutral
STOCH85.75Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWEN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 32.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.84, above the 50-day MA of 30.84, and below the 200-day MA of 34.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CWEN.

Clearway Energy Risk Analysis

Clearway Energy disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clearway Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Clearway Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

CWEN against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MWHMWH66Neutral$4.71B54.1219.16%―――
Sector *66Neutral$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
BEPCBEPC62Neutral$5.41B-1.12243.54%5.31%-2.38%-301.98%
RNWRNW61Neutral$2.50B20.909.00%―14.06%11.99%
ORAORA55Neutral$5.52B43.124.96%0.54%31.13%-4.27%
CWENCWEN54Neutral$6.57B42.141.96%5.79%7.99%22.73%
XIFRXIFR45Neutral$1.83B14.151.97%―-2.84%―

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%40%CWENORAXIFRBEPCRNWMWHDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
CWEN and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CWENClearway Energy32.031.153.71%
ORAOrmat Technologies89.69-17.68-16.46%
XIFRXplr Infrastructure, Lp9.48-0.33-3.36%
BEPCBrookfield Renewable Corporation29.15-13.12-31.04%
RNWRenew Energy Global Plc6.85-0.69-9.15%
MWHSolv Energy23.27-7.40-24.13%

Clearway Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Clearway Energy Expands Battery Storage Portfolio Via Agreement

Positive
Oct 7, 2026

On October 1, 2026, a Clearway Energy subsidiary agreed to acquire membership interests in Honeycomb 2 TargetCo LLC from an affiliate of Clearway Energy Group for a base cash purchase price of about $119 million, subject to financial model-based adju...

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions

Clearway Energy Expands Portfolio With Major Swan Solar Deal

Positive
Sep 28, 2026

On September 23, 2026, Clearway Energy subsidiary Swan Purchaser LLC agreed to acquire membership interests in Swan TargetCo LLC from Swan CE Seller LLC, an affiliate of Clearway Energy Group, for a base price of about $230 million in cash, subject t...

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Clearway Energy Announces New Finance Leadership Team

Positive
Sep 8, 2026

On September 8, 2026, Clearway Energy, Inc. announced a set of senior finance and accounting leadership changes effective October 1, 2026 and immediately, signaling a deeper integration with its controlling investor Clearway Energy Group LLC. Chief F...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance

Clearway Energy Launches $100 Million At-The-Market Program

Positive
Aug 6, 2026

On August 6, 2026, Clearway Energy, Inc. entered into an equity distribution agreement with several major banks, allowing it to sell up to $100 million of Class C common stock through an at-the-market offering program on the New York Stock Exchange....

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 07, 2026