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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
(NYSE:AERO)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(1.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated financial risk (negative equity, heavy leverage) and the sharp TTM profitability deterioration, with additional pressure from a weak technical trend (price below key moving averages). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was strongly constructive with upbeat guidance, strong demand indicators, and solid liquidity/cash generation.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Demand
Record revenue growth, high load factors, and strong forward bookings indicate durable customer demand across Aeroméxico’s network. Continued international growth and premium travel strength can support network economics, aircraft utilization, and revenue expansion over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Stressed Capital Structure
Persistent negative equity and heavy debt reduce financial flexibility and leave the company more exposed to downturns in demand, fuel costs, or operating performance. A stressed capital structure can constrain investment choices, increase refinancing sensitivity, and make earnings recovery more difficult.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Demand
Record revenue growth, high load factors, and strong forward bookings indicate durable customer demand across Aeroméxico’s network. Continued international growth and premium travel strength can support network economics, aircraft utilization, and revenue expansion over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)444.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.99
Revenue Growth9.55%
EPS Growth-83.46%
CountryUS
Employees17,362
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding145,903,410
10 Day Avg. Volume551,041
30 Day Avg. Volume444,403
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-5.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.90
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.05B
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in offering commercial air transport services for both individuals and cargo. Its primary services encompass scheduled passenger flights, dedicated air freight oper...
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 19, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Aeromexico reported record revenue, robust operating and adjusted EBITDA margins, healthy demand, improving CASM ex-fuel trends, strong cash generation, declining debt, and expanded liquidity. These achievements outweighed the significant challenges from historically elevated fuel prices, inflation, foreign exchange movements, higher operating expenses, and regulatory uncertainty.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Profitability
Third-quarter total revenue reached a record $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year over year, while operating income was $190 million and the operating margin was 12%. Adjusted EBITDA was $389 million, representing a 24% margin.
Negative Updates
Significant Fuel Cost Inflation
Third-quarter fuel expense increased 58% year over year, with average fuel prices of nearly $4 per gallon compared with $2.50 in the third quarter of 2025. Fuel costs increased approximately $170 million year over year and were nearly $93 million above the guidance provided in early July.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Profitability
Third-quarter total revenue reached a record $1.62 billion, up 13.6% year over year, while operating income was $190 million and the operating margin was 12%. Adjusted EBITDA was $389 million, representing a 24% margin.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, Aeromexico expects capacity to increase between 7% and 8% year-over-year, including domestic capacity growth between 3% and 4%, revenue growth of approximately 14% to 16%, CASM ex-fuel to remain flat versus last year over year, an adjusted EBITDA margin between 19.5% and 21.5%, and an operating margin between 7.5% and 9.5%; for full year 2026, it expects capacity growth of approximately 2% to 3%, year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 13.5% to 14.5%, an adjusted EBITDA margin between 21.5% and 22.5%, and an operating margin between 8.5% and 9.5%. Guidance assumes an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.05 per gallon for the fourth quarter and an exchange rate of approximately 18 pesos per dollar; adjusted for the peso, fourth-quarter revenue growth would be between 16% and 18% versus the Q4 of 2025, with the company working toward close to 20% year-on-year growth.Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.88B | 5.36B | 5.62B | 4.92B | 3.81B | 108.93M |
| Gross Profit | 1.30B | 1.48B | 1.75B | 1.33B | 498.60M | 1.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.45B | 1.52B | 1.64B | 1.16B | 799.57M | 425.60M |
| Net Income | 159.40M | 351.86M | 617.44M | 273.33M | -64.25M | -49.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.40B | 7.19B | 6.38B | 6.09B | 5.55B | 206.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 964.97M | 1.02B | 815.50M | 912.87M | 755.16M | 46.10M |
| Total Debt | 4.06B | 4.06B | 3.70B | 3.23B | 5.44B | 87.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.99B | 7.79B | 7.28B | 6.82B | 6.28B | 336.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | -594.98M | -592.01M | -901.96M | -734.93M | -732.80M | -129.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 506.12M | 589.89M | 947.61M | 1.02B | -409.94M | -5.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 885.11M | 925.47M | 1.37B | 1.36B | -209.28M | 3.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -329.94M | -280.77M | -493.81M | -409.61M | -526.18M | -6.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -526.20M | -497.82M | -916.26M | -917.46M | 598.02M | 31.81M |
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Technical Analysis
Negative
14.78
Price Trends
15.35
Negative
15.87
Negative
16.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
45.22
Neutral
39.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AERO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.72, below the 50-day MA of 15.35, and below the 200-day MA of 16.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AERO.
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Risk Analysis
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.40B | 8.63 | 22.40% | 5.13% | 14.80% | -1.39% | |
75 Outperform | $13.23B | 8.54 | 98.01% | 3.31% | 20.16% | 39.18% | |
70 Outperform | $50.51B | 15.23 | 15.40% | 1.05% | 14.11% | -29.50% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
51 Neutral | $2.21B | -6.07 | 42.95% | ― | 9.55% | -83.46% | |
51 Neutral | $660.99M | -3.54 | -93.84% | ― | 9.97% | -472.97% | |
43 Neutral | $8.02B | -16.59 | 12.03% | 1.41% | 12.32% | -179.51% |
* General Sector Average
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
15.16
-5.19
-25.50%
CPA
Copa Holdings
131.38
12.20
10.24%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
76.78
16.97
28.37%
AAL
American Airlines
12.11
-1.30
-9.69%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
5.68
-1.37
-19.43%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
46.27
2.49
5.69%
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events
Aeroméxico Posts Record Q3 2026 Revenue and Updates Full-Year Outlook
Oct 20, 2026
Aeroméxico reported unaudited results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, posting record quarterly revenue of $1.6 billion, up 13.6% year over year, driven largely by international passenger demand, premium revenue and loyalty and cargo...
Aeromexico Gains Flexibility as U.S. DOT Lifts Mexico–U.S. Schedule Restrictions
Oct 19, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Aeromexico reported that the U.S. Department of Transportation revoked, effective immediately, its October 28, 2025 order that had disapproved certain current and planned schedules by Mexican carriers on Mexico–U.S. rout...
Aeroméxico Addresses Unusual Trading Movements in Its Shares
Sep 22, 2026
Aeroméxico reported that on September 18, 2026, it observed unusual movements in the trading price of its capital stock on the BMV and NYSE, prompting a disclosure request from Mexico’s National Banking and Securities Commission. In res...
Grupo Aeroméxico Calls October 26 Shareholders’ Meeting to Set Share Buyback Limits
Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico convened an ordinary shareholders’ meeting for October 26, 2026, in Mexico City to decide the maximum amount of resources the company may allocate to repurchasing its own shares. The meeting will ...
Grupo Aeroméxico Plans US$100 Million Annual Share Buyback, Seeks Shareholder Approval
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico said it will ask shareholders to approve a new share repurchase program of up to US$100 million per year. The buyback, subject to a forthcoming shareholders’ meeting, would cover common shares and AD...
Aeroméxico Wins U.S. Appeals Court Ruling Preserving Delta Joint Venture
Aug 21, 2026
Grupo Aeroméxico announced that on August 20, 2026 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit ruled in favor of Aeroméxico and Delta Air Lines, Inc. in their dispute with the U.S. Department of Transportation. The court vacated t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.