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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO)
NYSE:AERO
US Market
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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) AI Stock Analysis

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AERO

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR

(NYSE:AERO)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(1.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet fragility (high debt with negative equity) and recent TTM margin/profitability pressure, despite healthy cash generation. Technicals are notably weak with the stock trading below key moving averages and bearish momentum signals. Positives from the earnings call—stronger second-half guidance, liquidity strength, and operational initiatives—provide support but do not fully offset the financial risk and current downtrend, while valuation is less supportive given the negative P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Delta Joint Venture Preserved
Preserving the Delta partnership protects Aeroméxico’s transborder network, coordinated schedules and customer reach. The joint venture supports a broader competitive position on Mexico–U.S. routes and remains a durable commercial advantage.
Negative Factors
High Debt and Negative Equity
Heavy leverage and negative equity materially limit financial flexibility and increase refinancing and credit sensitivity. For a cyclical airline, this weak balance-sheet structure can constrain investment capacity and amplify the impact of operating downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delta Joint Venture Preserved
Preserving the Delta partnership protects Aeroméxico’s transborder network, coordinated schedules and customer reach. The joint venture supports a broader competitive position on Mexico–U.S. routes and remains a durable commercial advantage.
Read all positive factors

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in offering commercial air transport services for both individuals and cargo. Its primary services encompass scheduled passenger flights, dedicated air freight oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Aeroméxico generates revenue primarily by selling air transportation and related services. Its main revenue stream is passenger revenue, earned from ticket sales for scheduled flights; pricing varies by route, cabin class, fare type, and purchase ...

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial picture: strong top-line performance (+30% revenue YoY), record quarter results, improved unit revenues (TRASM +10.5%, PRASM +10%), robust liquidity (> $1B cash) and guidance for stronger second-half profitability. Key challenges were material and volatile jet fuel costs (a ~$220M headwind, ~$30M incremental vs guidance), higher non-fuel operating costs (ex-fuel +13% YoY) driven by peso appreciation and maintenance contract renewals, and a temporary demand dip in June (~$24M impact). Management emphasized disciplined capacity and pricing actions, significant fuel-cost recapture above initial targets (~70–75%), and operating-leverage opportunities from new wide-body deliveries and additional Mexico City slots, supporting confidence in improved margins later in the year. Overall, the positive revenue, cash, premium-revenue mix, and guidance evidence outweigh the cost/fuel headwinds and short-term uncertainties.
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth and Record Quarterly Performance
Total revenue of approximately $1.5 billion in Q2, up ~30% year over year; company reported record revenues for June and its best second quarter ever.
Negative Updates
Elevated and Volatile Jet Fuel Costs
Experienced a ~$220 million fuel price headwind vs 2025, which translated into roughly $30 million of incremental cost pressure versus April guidance; average fuel prices in the quarter were ~8% above guidance assumptions and remain volatile.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth and Record Quarterly Performance
Total revenue of approximately $1.5 billion in Q2, up ~30% year over year; company reported record revenues for June and its best second quarter ever.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aeromexico’s guidance focused on a strong second half: Q3 revenue is expected at $1.59–$1.62B with adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid‑to‑high‑20s and operating margins in the mid‑teens; Q4 capacity is guided +6.5–8% YoY with total revenue growth +14.5–16.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin 28–31% (operating margin 15.5–18.5%); full‑year ASMs are expected +2–3%, total revenue +13–14% vs 2025, adjusted EBITDA margin 20.5–26.5% and operating margin 11–13% (EBIT described as low double‑digits). The plan assumes additional wide‑body flying after delivery of two 787s (plus one more later), use of ~10 additional slot pairs as MEX hourly ops rise 44→46, and capacity recovering to high single‑digit growth in Q4; liquidity was reiterated at >$1B cash and total liquidity >€1.2B (including a fully undrawn $100M RCF), expected net operating cash flow ~ $800M–$1B and free cash flow ~ $100M after ~ $450M CapEx (≈$300M maintenance, $150M other). Management noted Q2 headwinds of ~$220M fuel vs 2025 (≈$30M above April guidance) but achieved roughly a 70–75% fuel‑cost recapture, with Q2 TRASM +10.5% and PRASM +10%.

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operating and free cash flow have been solid since 2023, supporting ongoing operations, but the balance sheet is a major constraint with very high debt and negative equity. Recent TTM profitability deterioration and margin volatility reduce confidence in earnings durability despite the post-2022 revenue recovery.
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.68B5.36B5.62B4.92B3.81B108.93M
Gross Profit1.33B1.48B1.75B1.33B498.60M1.37M
EBITDA1.47B1.52B1.64B1.16B799.57M-21.43M
Net Income215.37M351.86M617.44M273.33M-64.25M-49.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.38B7.19B6.38B6.09B5.55B206.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.04B1.02B815.50M912.87M755.16M46.10M
Total Debt4.07B4.06B3.70B3.23B5.44B87.88M
Total Liabilities8.02B7.79B7.28B6.82B6.28B336.21M
Stockholders Equity-640.05M-592.01M-901.96M-734.93M-732.80M-129.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow575.23M589.89M947.61M1.02B-409.94M-5.52M
Operating Cash Flow928.60M925.47M1.37B1.36B-209.28M3.77M
Investing Cash Flow-312.46M-280.77M-493.81M-409.61M-526.18M-6.90M
Financing Cash Flow-520.77M-497.82M-916.26M-917.46M598.02M31.81M

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$51.79B13.1919.33%0.91%10.28%-12.67%
76
Outperform
$5.32B8.6922.40%4.87%14.80%-1.39%
75
Outperform
$14.88B9.7298.01%3.05%20.16%39.18%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
51
Neutral
$775.80M-4.25-93.84%9.97%-472.97%
49
Neutral
$2.25B-6.0742.95%5.57%-92.64%
46
Neutral
$8.59B-26.808.29%7.53%-157.37%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
15.79
-4.56
-22.41%
CPA
Copa Holdings
132.31
20.27
18.09%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
80.17
19.65
32.47%
AAL
American Airlines
13.13
0.05
0.38%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
6.85
0.70
11.38%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
52.47
3.03
6.14%

Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events

Grupo Aeroméxico Plans US$100 Million Annual Share Buyback, Seeks Shareholder Approval
Aug 24, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico said it will ask shareholders to approve a new share repurchase program of up to US$100 million per year. The buyback, subject to a forthcoming shareholders’ meeting, would cover common shares and AD...
Aeroméxico Wins U.S. Appeals Court Ruling Preserving Delta Joint Venture
Aug 21, 2026
Grupo Aeroméxico announced that on August 20, 2026 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit ruled in favor of Aeroméxico and Delta Air Lines, Inc. in their dispute with the U.S. Department of Transportation. The court vacated t...
Aeroméxico Posts Record Q2 2026 Revenue but Margins Compress as Fuel Costs Surge
Jul 14, 2026
Aeroméxico reported unaudited second-quarter 2026 results on July 13, highlighting record total revenue of $1.5 billion and a 12.6% year-on-year increase despite fuel expenses surging nearly 80%. Adjusted EBITDAR fell to $264 million with a 1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 21, 2026