Annaly Capital (NLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.33B
• Dividend Yield: 13.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 2.28%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.73
• Shares Outstanding: 642,076,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,243,612
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,833,715
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.65
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.84
• 1Y Price Target: $20.93
• Price Target Upside: 0.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(3.56% Upside)

Annaly Capital's overall stock score is driven by mixed financial performance and a cautiously optimistic earnings call. While the company demonstrates strong capital management and resilience, high leverage and declining profitability pose significant risks. The technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, and the high dividend yield offers some valuation appeal.

Positive Factors

Strong Capital Management

Annaly's ability to raise and deploy capital effectively enhances its investment capacity and supports strategic growth, strengthening its market position.

Resilient Residential Credit Sector

The strong performance of the residential credit sector indicates robust demand and Annaly's leadership in the expanded credit market, supporting long-term revenue stability.

Effective Cost Management

Enhanced liquidity and operational flexibility through effective cost management strategies bolster Annaly's ability to navigate market fluctuations and maintain profitability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk and limit flexibility, potentially impacting Annaly's ability to withstand economic downturns and interest rate changes.

Declining Profitability

The significant drop in net profit margin suggests challenges in maintaining profitability, which could affect long-term earnings and shareholder returns.

Decrease in Book Value Per Share

A decrease in book value per share reflects potential asset devaluation and could signal underlying financial weaknesses, affecting investor confidence and valuation.

Annaly Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in mortgage finance and corporate middle market lending. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, Agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, non-Agency residential mortgage assets, residential mortgage loans, credit risk transfer securities, corporate debts, and other commercial real estate investments. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Annaly Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related assets. The company leverages its investments by borrowing at lower short-term interest rates and investing in higher-yielding long-term mortgage assets, a strategy known as the 'spread' model. This allows Annaly to profit from the difference between the interest income received from its assets and the cost of financing its investments. Additionally, the company may also earn income from asset management fees and other related services. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include interest rate fluctuations, the overall health of the housing market, and the company's effective risk management strategies. Annaly has established partnerships with various financial institutions and investors, enhancing its ability to optimize its portfolio and access capital.

Annaly Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Annaly Capital's financial performance is mixed. Strong gross profit margins are overshadowed by declining net profit margins and high leverage, posing significant risks. Cash flow concerns are evident with declining free cash flow growth and low cash conversion ratios.

Income Statement

Annaly Capital's income statement shows mixed results. The company has a strong gross profit margin of 63.68% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has significantly declined from 80.29% in 2024 to 24.01% in TTM, suggesting reduced profitability. Revenue growth is modest at 2.27% for TTM, but the historical volatility in revenue, including negative growth in some years, raises concerns about stability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.85 in TTM, which is a significant increase from previous years, indicating potential risk. The return on equity has decreased to 5.68% in TTM, reflecting lower efficiency in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the high debt levels overshadow this stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 27.23% in TTM, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains reasonable at 49.35%, showing some ability to generate cash relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.48B	6.36B	5.61B	4.15B	751.40M	1.48B
Gross Profit	6.45B	6.32B	5.58B	4.13B	726.77M	1.46B
EBITDA	5.40B	5.65B	2.27B	3.14B	2.95B	3.62M
Net Income	729.82M	1.00B	-1.64B	1.73B	2.39B	-891.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	112.14B	103.56B	93.23B	81.85B	76.76B	88.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.06B	510.50M	1.41B	1.58B	1.34B	1.24B
Total Debt	91.67B	21.45B	13.20B	8.80B	7.11B	7.04B
Total Liabilities	98.67B	90.86B	81.88B	70.48B	63.57B	74.43B
Stockholders Equity	13.38B	12.61B	11.26B	11.27B	13.17B	14.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	572.50M	2.45B	1.97B	4.36B	2.54B	-32.15B
Operating Cash Flow	1.16B	3.31B	2.37B	5.37B	3.08B	527.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-16.33B	-14.98B	-8.42B	-14.53B	4.90B	40.35B
Financing Cash Flow	15.64B	11.75B	5.88B	9.39B	-7.88B	-41.49B

Annaly Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.79, above the 50-day MA of 20.42, and above the 200-day MA of 18.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NLY.

Annaly Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RITM	68 Neutral	$5.91B	8.63	10.13%	8.97%	26.69%	9.10%
STWD	67 Neutral	$7.13B	17.87	5.73%	9.88%	-15.07%	-1.00%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
BXMT	63 Neutral	$3.23B	―	-0.33%	9.99%	-19.20%	92.16%
AGNC	59 Neutral	$10.48B	30.98	3.98%	14.31%	-18.28%	-10.62%
NLY	53 Neutral	$13.33B	20.66	5.94%	13.25%	2.28%	―
ARR	48 Neutral	$1.74B	8.01	-2.04%	18.59%	157.34%	91.67%

Annaly Capital Corporate Events

Annaly Capital Completes Series J Preferred Stock Sale

Annaly Capital, a company involved in the financial sector, recently completed a significant transaction involving its Series J Preferred Stock. On August 7, 2025, Annaly Capital closed the issuance and sale of 11,000,000 shares of Series J Preferred Stock, following an underwriting agreement with major financial institutions. This move, which included the exercise of an option to purchase additional shares, was conducted under the company’s registration statement and is expected to impact its capital structure and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLY) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Annaly Capital stock, see the NLY Stock Forecast page.