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Mesoblast
(NASDAQ:MESO)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-30.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (continued losses and negative cash flow) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative momentum). Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings-call outlook driven by RYONCIL’s commercial traction, improved loss/cash-burn trajectory, and advancing pipeline milestones, but valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
RYONCIL commercial traction
RYONCIL has moved Mesoblast into commercial operations with meaningful first-year revenue, broad treatment-center adoption, and extensive reimbursement coverage. This infrastructure can support continued penetration and provides a durable base for future label expansion beyond the current pediatric indication.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and cash burn
Mesoblast has not yet demonstrated self-funding operations, with recurring negative operating and free cash flow alongside substantial net losses. Continued investment in trials, commercialization, and development may require external financing, limiting financial flexibility until revenue growth reaches operating breakeven.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
RYONCIL commercial traction
RYONCIL has moved Mesoblast into commercial operations with meaningful first-year revenue, broad treatment-center adoption, and extensive reimbursement coverage. This infrastructure can support continued penetration and provides a durable base for future label expansion beyond the current pediatric indication.
Read all positive factors
Mesoblast (MESO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.63B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)262.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth600.89%
EPS Growth47.33%
CountryUS
Employees108
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.43
Shares Outstanding130,129,800
10 Day Avg. Volume328,473
30 Day Avg. Volume262,139
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)3.08
Price to Sales (P/S)14.50
P/FCF Ratio-39.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-40.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.00Price Target Upside115.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$209.64M
Mesoblast Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mesoblast Limited is a biopharmaceutical firm dedicated to the development and commercialization of allogeneic cell-based therapies. Its global presence extends across the United States, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. T...
How the Company Makes Money
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Mesoblast Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call was predominantly positive: Mesoblast reported a successful first full commercial year for RYONCIL with $115M revenue, very high reported gross profit, strong real‑world efficacy signals, important pipeline milestones (IND cleared for Duchenne, completion of 350‑patient low back pain pivotal treatment, ongoing adult GvHD randomized trial), and materially reduced cash burn and net loss (44% reduction). Offsetting items include continued net losses ($57.5M), ongoing cash usage ($43.8M), dependence on a single commercial product today, financing costs (125M credit line at 8%), and multi‑year timelines and enrollment/regulatory risks for several label expansions. Overall, the positive commercial launch, improved financial trajectory, and advanced pipeline milestones outweigh the remaining financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
First Full Year Commercial Launch Success for RYONCIL
Net revenue of $115.0M in fiscal 2026 (first full year post-launch) with Q4 net revenue of $36.0M; gross profit on total sales (excluding amortization) of $110.0M (~95.7% gross margin on reported sales).
Negative Updates
Company Still Loss-Making
Despite a 44% improvement, net loss after taxes remained $57.5M for fiscal 2026 — the company has not yet reached sustained profitability.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Full Year Commercial Launch Success for RYONCIL
Net revenue of $115.0M in fiscal 2026 (first full year post-launch) with Q4 net revenue of $36.0M; gross profit on total sales (excluding amortization) of $110.0M (~95.7% gross margin on reported sales).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mesoblast guided to double‑digit revenue growth for RYONCIL over the next 12 months and laid out timelines and metrics for its pipeline: FY2026 net revenue was $115M (Q4 $36M) with gross profit of $110M and a net loss after tax reduced 44% to $57.5M; cash at June 30, 2026 was $103M after net cash usage of $43.8M for the year (H2 cash burn $13.4M vs $50M a year earlier), and a $125M credit facility (8% interest, no principal amortization for five years) supports operations. Commercial metrics include >50 centers onboarded, >98% U.S. lives covered by payors, a J‑code effective Oct 2025, and pediatric survival of ~84% with RYONCIL (adult compassionate use day‑100 survival ~76% vs ~20–30% with other third‑line agents); market sizing cited: GvHD TAM >$1B, >2,000 adults/year with a ~50% share having Grade III/IV disease (≈600+ adults refractory to ruxolitinib), rexlemestrocel cardiac+back TAM >$20B, and chronic low back pain addressable market ~35M patients (≈60% degenerative, ~7M meeting target criteria, ≥$10B). Clinical milestones: adult GvHD randomized trial (180 patients, 1:1 ruxolitinib ± RYONCIL) is enrolling across >40 U.S. sites with an interim analysis at ~57% enrollment (~100 patients) expected Q4 2027 (trial powered ~85–90% with target day‑28 response uplift), the 350‑patient pivotal rexlemestrocel low‑back pain study has completed treatment with a readout in H2 CY2027 and potential BLA in CY2028, pediatric Duchenne IND cleared and Phase 3 planning underway; FY26 R&D/product development spend was $17.3M plus ~$21.2M on Phase 3 programs and ~ $18M incremental sales & marketing to support launch.Mesoblast Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 120.79M | 17.20M | 5.90M | 7.50M | 10.21M |
| Gross Profit | 101.58M | 12.07M | -35.17M | -47.42M | -53.36M |
| EBITDA | -42.88M | -73.66M | -53.31M | -58.55M | -76.57M |
| Net Income | -57.76M | -102.14M | -87.96M | -81.89M | -91.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 773.08M | 784.68M | 669.15M | 669.41M | 662.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.39M | 161.16M | 62.56M | 70.92M | 60.03M |
| Total Debt | 127.33M | 128.16M | 118.92M | 116.50M | 106.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 204.67M | 187.24M | 188.80M | 167.58M | 165.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 568.40M | 597.44M | 480.36M | 501.84M | 497.04M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -44.73M | -50.68M | -48.79M | -63.58M | -66.01M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -43.83M | -49.95M | -48.46M | -63.27M | -65.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.02M | 120.00K | -97.00K | -194.00K | -232.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.33M | 147.34M | 40.25M | 74.50M | -9.87M |
Mesoblast Technical Analysis
Negative
17.19
Price Trends
15.15
Negative
15.13
Negative
15.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.75
Positive
35.89
Neutral
21.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MESO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.57, above the 50-day MA of 15.15, and above the 200-day MA of 15.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MESO.
Mesoblast Risk Analysis
Mesoblast disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mesoblast reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Concentrated share ownership and Australian takeover laws may discourage takeover offers and limit shareholder opportunities. Q2, 2026
2.
Post-approval safety findings, real-world evidence, or failures in pharmacovigilance could materially and adversely affect the continued commercialization of Ryoncil. Q2, 2026
3.
Our ability to commercialize Ryoncil continues to depend on complex reimbursement, coding, and site-of-care dynamics, which may limit continued adoption even where clinical demand exists. Q2, 2026
Mesoblast Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $561.18M | 96.25 | 2.61% | ― | -2.36% | -80.69% | |
58 Neutral | $2.20B | 89.67 | 6.91% | ― | 22.95% | 228.76% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $1.63B | -28.39 | -10.06% | ― | 600.89% | 47.33% | |
47 Neutral | $418.04M | -1.81 | -50.04% | ― | ― | 40.16% | |
45 Neutral | $411.16M | -2.39 | 8.83% | ― | 55.22% | 2.13% | |
41 Neutral | $706.49M | -3.11 | -134.49% | ― | ― | 28.46% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
MESO
Mesoblast
12.39
-4.32
-25.85%
VCEL
Vericel
43.04
6.57
18.01%
MDXG
MiMedx Group
3.85
-2.88
-42.79%
ALLO
Allogene Therapeutics
1.21
-0.02
-1.63%
SANA
Sana Biotechnology
2.36
-2.89
-55.05%
PROK
ProKidney
1.36
-1.86
-57.76%
Mesoblast Corporate Events
Mesoblast Posts 44% Ryoncil Revenue Jump and Major Cash Burn Cut in Q1 2026
Oct 16, 2026
Mesoblast Limited, a global leader in allogeneic cellular medicines for inflammatory diseases, reported strong first fiscal quarter 2026 financial metrics for its FDA-approved pediatric graft-versus-host disease therapy Ryoncil. The company’...
Mesoblast Updates ASX on October 14 Capital Structure Changes
Oct 15, 2026
On October 14, 2026, Mesoblast Limited lodged a series of new issue announcements with the Australian Securities Exchange, detailing the cessation of certain securities, changes to unquoted equity instruments and an application for quotation of ad...
Mesoblast Posts First Full-Year Ryoncil Revenue Surge and Files 2026 Annual Report
Oct 13, 2026
On October 12, 2026, Mesoblast filed its 2026 Annual Report, Notice of Annual General Meeting, and updated corporate governance materials with the Australian Securities Exchange, marking its first full fiscal year as a commercial-stage cellular th...
Mesoblast Discloses Director Option Grant and New Equity Issues in August Filings
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Mesoblast Limited filed a new issue announcement and a change of director’s interest notice with the Australian Securities Exchange, and reported these to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission via a Form 6-K dated A...
Mesoblast Completes Pivotal Phase 3 Patient Treatment for Chronic Low Back Pain
Aug 18, 2026
Mesoblast Limited, a developer of allogeneic cell therapies for inflammatory and degenerative diseases, reported a key clinical milestone in mid‑August 2026 with the completion of patient treatment in its pivotal Phase 3 trial of rexlemestro...
Mesoblast Posts US$115m First-Year Ryoncil Sales and Advances Late-Stage Cell Therapy Pipeline
Jul 30, 2026
Mesoblast has reported strong initial commercial traction for its flagship cell therapy Ryoncil®, posting net revenue of US$36 million for the fourth quarter and US$115 million for the first full year following FDA approval, as disclosed in i...
Mesoblast CEO Boosts Stake as Company Files New Equity Announcements
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Mesoblast reported to U.S. regulators that it had lodged a series of new issue announcements with the Australian Securities Exchange, covering the issue and quotation of equity securities and changes in director interests. These ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.