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Cheesecake Factory
(NASDAQ:CAKE)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$116.00
▲(2.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and strong, upbeat earnings-call results with supportive forward margin guidance, tempered by meaningful balance-sheet leverage risk. Technicals are neutral-to-constructive, while valuation is a modest headwind due to a higher P/E and limited dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Core Brand Momentum
Strong comparable sales and traffic growth indicate broad customer demand and improving brand relevance, not merely price-led revenue expansion. Outperformance across geographies, dayparts and channels supports the durability of the flagship concept over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The heavily leveraged capital structure reduces financial flexibility and leaves less room to absorb weaker demand, higher rates or operating setbacks. Debt service and refinancing considerations can constrain capital allocation, even as profitability and cash generation improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core Brand Momentum
Strong comparable sales and traffic growth indicate broad customer demand and improving brand relevance, not merely price-led revenue expansion. Outperformance across geographies, dayparts and channels supports the durability of the flagship concept over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.40B
Dividend Yield1.08%
Average Volume (3M)1.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth5.66%
EPS Growth14.01%
CountryUS
Employees48,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.83
Shares Outstanding49,760,635
10 Day Avg. Volume1,314,065
30 Day Avg. Volume1,324,764
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.70
Price to Book (P/B)5.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio15.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.10Price Target Upside-4.74% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.05B
Cheesecake Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated primarily operates restaurants. The company also maintains two bakeries that produce its signature cheesecakes and other baked goods. These products are distributed to its own restaurant network, international l...
How the Company Makes Money
CAKE primarily makes money by selling food and beverages to guests at its company-operated restaurants, generating revenue from on-premise dining as well as off-premise orders (e.g., takeout and delivery where available). A meaningful portion of s...
Cheesecake Factory Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Record revenue, 15.2% comparable sales growth, 9.5% traffic growth, substantial EBITDA growth, margin expansion, strong Flower Child performance, successful development activity and increased rewards engagement significantly outweighed the North Italia sales and margin challenges, higher costs, measured fiscal 2027 assumptions and expected dilution.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings Performance
Third-quarter revenues exceeded $1.033 billion, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue and finishing meaningfully above the high end of the company’s outlook. Adjusted net income margin was 5.1%, adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, quarterly net income was $61.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 38% year-over-year to $98.7 million.
Negative Updates
North Italia Comparable Sales and Margin Decline
North Italia comparable sales declined 3%, and adjusted mature restaurant-level profit margin decreased to 13.2% from 15.7% in the prior year, primarily due to sales deleverage.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Earnings Performance
Third-quarter revenues exceeded $1.033 billion, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue and finishing meaningfully above the high end of the company’s outlook. Adjusted net income margin was 5.1%, adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, quarterly net income was $61.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 38% year-over-year to $98.7 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4 2026, the company anticipates total revenues between $1.04 billion and $1.05 billion, effective commodity inflation of low single digits, net total labor inflation of low to mid-single digits, G&A of approximately $68 million, depreciation of $30 million, preopening expenses of $13 million to support 13 openings, adjusted net income margin of about 5.8% at the midpoint of the sales range provided, a tax rate of approximately 14% to 15%, and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52.5 million; it remains on track to open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026 and anticipates approximately $210 million in cash CapEx. For fiscal 2027, it expects to open as many as 27 new restaurants, with roughly 3/4 of those openings planned for the second half of the year, generate total revenue of approximately $4.425 billion, incur total inflation across its commodity basket, labor and other operating expenses in the low- to mid-single-digit range, achieve modest leverage from G&A, depreciation and pre-opening expenses of approximately 10 to 20 basis points, and deliver full year net income margin of 6.0% to 6.1%, assuming a tax rate of approximately 12%, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52 million, and approximately $220 million in cash CapEx, including roughly as many as 5 Cheesecake Factories, 4 to 5 North Italias, 11 to 13 Flower Childs and 6 to 7 FRC restaurants; 3% as sort of a run rate is good to use for next year, and on a normalized trajectory, the company would be talking about a 3% or plus comp.Cheesecake Factory Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.88B | 3.75B | 3.58B | 3.44B | 3.30B | 2.93B |
| Gross Profit | 1.80B | 2.94B | 2.78B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.20B |
| EBITDA | 318.56M | 282.37M | 282.90M | 201.70M | 132.76M | 171.97M |
| Net Income | 178.62M | 148.43M | 156.78M | 101.35M | 43.12M | 72.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.29B | 3.26B | 3.04B | 2.84B | 2.78B | 2.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 195.17M | 215.73M | 84.18M | 56.29M | 114.78M | 189.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.08B | 3.46B | 1.91B | 1.86B | 1.84B | 1.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.78B | 2.83B | 2.60B | 2.52B | 2.48B | 2.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 518.96M | 436.43M | 443.45M | 318.06M | 292.00M | 330.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 206.30M | 155.08M | 107.96M | 65.18M | 48.78M | 145.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 354.45M | 301.28M | 268.32M | 218.40M | 161.93M | 213.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.25M | -147.26M | -161.10M | -153.50M | -112.81M | -68.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -158.50M | -22.78M | -78.79M | -123.53M | -123.64M | -108.83M |
Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis
Positive
113.48
Price Trends
107.77
Positive
97.28
Positive
78.61
Positive
Market Momentum
1.50
Positive
47.73
Neutral
16.96
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.73, above the 50-day MA of 107.77, and above the 200-day MA of 78.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAKE.
Cheesecake Factory Risk Analysis
Cheesecake Factory disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cheesecake Factory reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cheesecake Factory Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $24.21B | 20.77 | 55.90% | 2.92% | 8.10% | 9.77% | |
73 Outperform | $8.24B | 17.63 | 123.85% | 4.81% | 7.86% | 29.85% | |
68 Neutral | $10.94B | 26.63 | 27.56% | 1.76% | 9.89% | -4.85% | |
64 Neutral | $5.40B | 24.32 | 58.82% | 1.08% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $1.22B | 29.45 | 10.97% | 1.95% | 3.54% | 56.84% | |
46 Neutral | $777.44M | 28.38 | 7.35% | 1.64% | -2.05% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
CAKE
Cheesecake Factory
105.73
56.24
113.66%
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
60.51
30.43
101.16%
EAT
Brinker International
220.74
105.76
91.98%
DRI
Darden Restaurants
216.56
39.77
22.49%
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse
174.75
6.73
4.00%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
9.99
2.59
35.00%
Cheesecake Factory Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Posts Record Third-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Oct 27, 2026
On October 27, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory reported record third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with total revenues rising to $1.03 billion from $907.2 million a year earlier and net income reaching $61.3 million, or $1.19 per diluted share, for th...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Cheesecake Factory Posts Strong Q2 Growth, Reaffirms Expansion
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, The Cheesecake Factory reported that second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue rose to $1.03 billion from $955.8 million a year earlier, with net income of $68.4 million, or $1.41 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $1.44 per sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.