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BJ's Restaurants
(NASDAQ:BJRI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
▲(10.68% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/04/26
BJRI scores moderately well driven by improving financial fundamentals (profitability recovery and better leverage trends) and strong technical momentum (price above all key moving averages with supportive MACD/RSI). The primary offset is valuation risk (P/E ~34.65 with no dividend yield), while the latest earnings call adds support via raised guidance and strong traffic-led comps despite near-term commodity and mix pressures.
Positive Factors
Traffic-led growth
Sustained traffic growth across multiple quarters indicates improving guest demand and broader customer engagement. This supports restaurant sales durability beyond isolated pricing actions and provides a foundation for continued comparable-sales growth.
Negative Factors
Thin profitability
BJ’s remains a low-margin operator, and recent revenue growth is modest, meaning earnings recovery depends heavily on efficiency rather than strong demand expansion. Thin margins leave limited protection against labor, food or occupancy cost increases.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Traffic-led growth
Sustained traffic growth across multiple quarters indicates improving guest demand and broader customer engagement. This supports restaurant sales durability beyond isolated pricing actions and provides a foundation for continued comparable-sales growth.
Read all positive factors
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)410.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.9
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth3.54%
EPS Growth56.84%
CountryUS
Employees22,230
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.95
Shares Outstanding21,273,766
10 Day Avg. Volume489,701
30 Day Avg. Volume410,723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.36
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio21.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$73.50Price Target Upside9.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)2.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.44B
BJ's Restaurants Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. manages a network of casual dining establishments situated throughout the United States. Patrons can enjoy a diverse menu at these eateries, encompassing pizzas, a variety of beers (including craft selections), appetizers, m...
How the Company Makes Money
BJ’s Restaurants primarily makes money by operating company-owned restaurants and selling food and beverages to guests. Its core revenue stream is restaurant sales generated from (1) food items ordered from its menu and (2) beverage sales, which i...
BJ's Restaurants Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational momentum: robust traffic-driven same-store sales (+6.5%) and multiple quarters of sales and profit growth, margin expansion at the restaurant level, improved marketing efficiency, successful menu/promotional programs, debt reduction and raised guidance for sales and EBITDA. Headwinds from commodity inflation (notably beef and produce), average check compression driven by successful lower-check promotions, some one-time G&A charges, and increased maintenance spending are the main negatives. Management expects commodity pressure to ease and check dynamics to normalize in the back half, and has prioritized investments in people, technology, remodels and measured unit growth. Overall, the positives (sustained growth, margin recovery potential, guidance raise, balance sheet improvement and product/marketing traction) outweigh the manageable near-term cost pressures and volatility from seasonal items.Positive Updates
Consecutive Growth Streak
Same-store sales increased 6.5% and traffic grew 8.3%, marking BJ's eighth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth and seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Negative Updates
Commodity Inflation and Cost-of-Sales Pressure
Commodity headwind of roughly 120 basis points driven by ~5% inflation in the commodity basket; beef costs were a notable driver with an expected ~20% increase. Cost of sales was 25.5%, up 70 basis points year-over-year, pressuring margins in Q2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consecutive Growth Streak
Same-store sales increased 6.5% and traffic grew 8.3%, marking BJ's eighth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth and seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
BJ’s raised select FY2026 guidance, now calling for comparable restaurant sales growth of 3.0%–4.0% (up from 1%–3%), restaurant‑level operating profit of $228M–$235M (vs. prior $221M–$233M), and adjusted EBITDA of $145M–$152M (vs. $140M–$150M previously); capex is expected to be $85M–$95M and share repurchases remain authorized up to $50M. Management added modeling color: Q3 comps should somewhat outpace Q4, a late‑June menu carried ~110 bps of pricing, and management expects effective pricing of ~3.7% in Q3, ~2.6% in Q4 and ~3.0% for the year, with average‑check pressure easing in Q3 and returning to moderate growth by Q4 as commodity inflation subsides. They also noted a normalized G&A run‑rate of up to $90M and cited balance‑sheet progress (Q2 capex $23.3M, repurchased ~64k shares for $2.4M, $18M of debt repaid, ending net debt ≈ $30M).BJ's Restaurants Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.43B | 1.40B | 1.36B | 1.33B | 1.28B | 1.09B |
| Gross Profit | 222.53M | 216.24M | 195.59M | 177.79M | 144.76M | 129.63M |
| EBITDA | 126.50M | 129.22M | 86.49M | 86.01M | 64.97M | 58.57M |
| Net Income | 40.92M | 48.81M | 16.69M | 19.66M | 4.08M | -3.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 991.79M | 1.02B | 1.04B | 1.22B | 1.21B | 1.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.43M | 23.78M | 26.10M | 29.07M | 24.87M | 38.53M |
| Total Debt | 434.66M | 490.76M | 500.61M | 519.50M | 532.71M | 525.26M |
| Total Liabilities | 594.39M | 649.26M | 671.05M | 856.87M | 867.84M | 701.39M |
| Stockholders Equity | 397.40M | 366.19M | 370.02M | 365.76M | 345.51M | 333.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 44.60M | 40.90M | 24.57M | 6.92M | -27.48M | 22.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.65M | 110.51M | 101.47M | 105.84M | 51.12M | 64.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.98M | -69.57M | -76.89M | -98.91M | -71.91M | -42.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -56.21M | -43.26M | -27.55M | -2.73M | 7.13M | -35.25M |
BJ's Restaurants Technical Analysis
Positive
66.86
Price Trends
62.55
Positive
51.48
Positive
45.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.75
Positive
46.04
Neutral
11.59
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BJRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.03, above the 50-day MA of 62.55, and above the 200-day MA of 45.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BJRI.
BJ's Restaurants Risk Analysis
BJ's Restaurants disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BJ's Restaurants reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BJ's Restaurants Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.38B | 32.92 | 10.97% | ― | 3.54% | 56.84% | |
65 Neutral | $5.27B | 27.81 | 38.83% | 1.35% | 5.66% | 14.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $908.44M | 32.75 | 7.35% | 8.69% | -2.05% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $609.80M | -286.65 | -0.90% | ― | 18.39% | 78.94% | |
53 Neutral | $372.88M | 23.84 | 2.95% | ― | 2.89% | -58.76% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants
64.23
29.14
83.04%
CAKE
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106.53
44.95
72.98%
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands
10.48
3.12
42.29%
KRUS
Kura Sushi USA
48.73
-31.45
-39.22%
PTLO
Portillo's
4.77
-2.52
-34.57%
BJ's Restaurants Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
BJ’s Restaurants Updates Compensation for Non-Employee Directors
Neutral
Jun 23, 2026
BJ’s Restaurants’ board, following recommendations from its compensation committee and consultant, has approved a series of increases to compensation for non-employee directors, including raising the annual cash retainer to $80,000 and...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BJ’s Restaurants Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 11, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors elected all nominated directors to serve until the next annual meeting or until successors are chosen. The voting results showed broad support for th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.