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Alcoa
(NYSE:AA)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▼(-14.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/16/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (stronger TTM margins, cash generation, and a supportive equity base) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD) and some operational/regulatory and cost headwinds discussed on the earnings call (carbon cost pressure, mining approval delays, and metal-price sensitivity).
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
Alcoa’s materially stronger TTM revenue and margins show improved earnings power compared with the weaker 2022–2024 period. If operational performance and market conditions remain supportive, the higher profitability can provide more capacity for investment, debt service, and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-Cycle Earnings Volatility
The history of losses and near-break-even profitability demonstrates that Alcoa’s earnings remain highly dependent on aluminum and alumina prices and operating costs. This cyclicality can quickly reduce margins and cash generation when market conditions weaken, limiting earnings predictability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
Alcoa’s materially stronger TTM revenue and margins show improved earnings power compared with the weaker 2022–2024 period. If operational performance and market conditions remain supportive, the higher profitability can provide more capacity for investment, debt service, and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Alcoa Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Sales by Segment
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Breaks down revenue from each business unit, offering insights into which segments are performing well and contributing most to overall growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAlcoa (AA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.00B
Dividend Yield1.06%
Average Volume (3M)4.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.5
Beta (1Y)1.60
Revenue Growth11.56%
EPS Growth32.11%
CountryUS
Employees14,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.85
Shares Outstanding263,909,450
10 Day Avg. Volume6,228,642
30 Day Avg. Volume4,790,253
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.27
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio24.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$54.67Price Target Upside6.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)6.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.68B
Alcoa Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alcoa Corporation stands as a global industrial leader, primarily focused on the production and sale of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Its extensive operations span multiple continents, including North America (United States, Canada), Eu...
How the Company Makes Money
Alcoa makes money primarily by producing and selling commodity-grade aluminum inputs across three main product lines: (1) bauxite, (2) alumina, and (3) primary aluminum. Revenue is generated from sales to external customers under a mix of contract...
Alcoa Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 15, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong operational execution, production records, improved Pinjarra performance, solid cash generation, favorable alumina and aluminum market fundamentals, progress on the AliGroup acquisition, and the Massena East monetization agreement. However, management also addressed a fatality, lower metal prices, sequentially lower adjusted net income, higher carbon costs, mining approval delays, softer Chinese alumina conditions, and uncertainty around supply recovery. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Operational Performance
Alcoa reported strong third-quarter performance, including six year-to-date production records, an approximately 15,000 metric ton sequential increase in aluminum production, completion of the Alumar smelter restart, and a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery.
Negative Updates
Fatality at Alumar Smelter
A fatality occurred at the Alumar smelter in Brazil on September 16. Management said the loss deeply affected the company and that Alcoa is taking actions to strengthen its safety culture, reduce risk, and reinforce critical risk controls, leadership behaviors, and accountability.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Operational Performance
Alcoa reported strong third-quarter performance, including six year-to-date production records, an approximately 15,000 metric ton sequential increase in aluminum production, completion of the Alumar smelter restart, and a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the full year, Alcoa made only minor adjustments for transformation expenses, depreciation, interest expense and capital expenditures; for the fourth quarter, it expects higher production and shipments in both segments, while alumina performance elements are expected to be flat, excluding pricing, with maintenance moving between regions completely covered by improved shipment performance, and Aluminum costs are expected to increase by $30 million, including about $10 million more in carbon prices. The company expects to release about 10 days at least of working capital going into the fourth quarter, expects Western Australia mining approvals by mid-2027 after incorporating an additional 6 months of mining in current areas, and is thinking that probably 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity will come online in Indonesia next year against a 75 million metric ton market.Alcoa Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.31B | 12.83B | 12.18B | 10.71B | 12.76B | 12.44B |
| Gross Profit | 3.14B | 2.17B | 1.50B | 241.00M | 1.93B | 2.62B |
| EBITDA | 2.42B | 1.84B | 1.09B | 155.00M | 1.43B | 2.06B |
| Net Income | 1.53B | 1.16B | 60.00M | -651.00M | -123.00M | 429.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.36B | 16.13B | 14.06B | 14.15B | 14.76B | 15.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.41B | 1.74B | 1.14B | 944.00M | 1.36B | 1.81B |
| Total Debt | 4.82B | 2.75B | 2.82B | 1.97B | 1.87B | 1.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.12B | 9.94B | 8.91B | 8.31B | 8.17B | 8.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.24B | 6.12B | 5.16B | 4.25B | 5.08B | 4.67B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 758.00M | 567.00M | 42.00M | -440.00M | 342.00M | 530.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.44B | 1.19B | 622.00M | 91.00M | 822.00M | 920.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -766.00M | -502.00M | -608.00M | -585.00M | -495.00M | 565.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.08B | -261.00M | 201.00M | 57.00M | -768.00M | -1.16B |
Alcoa Technical Analysis
Negative
51.28
Price Trends
45.78
Negative
49.57
Negative
56.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.70
Positive
26.81
Positive
13.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.47, above the 50-day MA of 45.78, and below the 200-day MA of 56.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.81 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AA.
Alcoa Risk Analysis
Alcoa disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alcoa reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alcoa Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $21.50B | 19.25 | 15.07% | 1.19% | 24.75% | 56.89% | |
70 Outperform | $3.11B | 5.15 | 58.57% | ― | 9.67% | 399.06% | |
69 Neutral | $10.00B | 6.48 | 21.40% | 1.06% | 11.56% | 32.11% | |
67 Neutral | $3.15B | 5.82 | 52.38% | ― | 25.94% | 1920.11% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.75B | 8.00 | 24.13% | 2.87% | 40.43% | 136.99% | |
55 Neutral | $7.93B | -15.62 | -8.14% | 6.42% | 8.10% | 75.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AA
Alcoa
38.70
-0.89
-2.24%
CENX
Century Aluminum
31.80
1.10
3.58%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
13.38
-0.39
-2.83%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
105.47
14.38
15.78%
RS
Reliance Steel
421.87
147.27
53.63%
CSTM
Constellium
23.41
6.56
38.93%
Alcoa Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Completes $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
On September 23, 2026, Alcoa, through its wholly owned subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., completed a $2.6 billion private placement of senior unsecured notes, split between 6.625% notes due 2034 and 6.875% notes due 20...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Alcoa Poised to Acquire South32 Aluminium Assets
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
On September 10, 2026, South32 Limited issued a notice of meeting and explanatory memorandum for its October 15, 2026 annual general meeting, where shareholders will vote on several governance and remuneration resolutions and on a proposed sale of...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Prices $2.6 Billion Notes to Fund Acquisition
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced it had priced a $2.6 billion offering of senior notes through wholly owned subsidiaries Alumina Pty Ltd and Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., with maturities in 2034 and 2036 and guarantees on a senior unsecured b...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Alcoa Announces $2.6 Billion Notes for AliGroup Deal
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, Alcoa announced a proposed $2.6 billion senior notes offering, split between 2034 notes issued by Alumina Pty Ltd and 2036 notes issued by Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., both wholly owned subsidiaries. The proceeds, combined w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.