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Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)
NASDAQ:XEL

Xcel Energy (XEL) AI Stock Analysis

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XE

Xcel Energy

(NASDAQ:XEL)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$74.00
â–²(11.04%Upside)
Xcel Energy's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and strategic investments in infrastructure. While technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, the company's valuation and strong corporate governance provide support. Earnings call insights and corporate events highlight growth potential, despite facing challenges such as rising expenses and liabilities.
Positive Factors
De-carbonization Opportunities
Xcel's footprint gives it access to one of the most renewables-rich regions in the U.S., providing it with cost-effective de-carbonization opportunities.
Financial Stability
The IRA and tax credit transferability concerns are not as severe as initially feared, providing stability to Xcel Energy's financial plans.
Growth Potential
Xcel Energy is expected to have the highest ratebase CAGR among large-cap utilities, enhancing its growth potential.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Concerns
The reduction in cash flow in the interim could require incremental equity issuance or other mitigation measures to preserve credit metrics.
Customer Impact Risk
Projects planned post-2029 could have an adverse impact on customers if not addressed, highlighting a potential risk.
Litigation and Financial Impact
Wildfires are expected to be a key topic for investors on the call, indicating ongoing concern about litigation and potential financial impacts.

Xcel Energy (XEL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Xcel Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionXcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity. It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments. The company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, oil, wood/refuse, and wind energy sources. It also purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers, as well as transports customer-owned natural gas. In addition, the company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, and storage and compression facilities; and invests in rental housing projects, as well as procures equipment for the construction of renewable generation facilities. It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company sells electricity to approximately 3.7 million customers; and natural gas to approximately 2.1 million customers. Xcel Energy Inc. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneyXcel Energy makes money through the regulated sale of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's revenue model is primarily based on rates approved by state and federal regulatory agencies, which allow Xcel Energy to recover its costs and earn a reasonable return on investment. Key revenue streams include electricity sales, natural gas sales, and transmission and distribution services. Additionally, Xcel Energy has invested significantly in renewable energy projects, benefiting from federal and state incentives and tax credits. The company's partnerships with governmental bodies and compliance with regulatory mechanisms also play a crucial role in its revenue generation, allowing it to maintain and expand its infrastructure for efficient energy delivery.

Xcel Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Xcel Energy's robust infrastructure investments and strong regulatory engagements, positioning it well for future growth. However, declines in earnings, increased operating expenses, and rising liability estimates for wildfire claims were significant concerns. The company remains confident in its ability to manage these challenges, supported by positive sales growth and ongoing data center expansion.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Investment in Energy Infrastructure
Xcel Energy invested $2.3 billion in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating a commitment to delivering energy efficiently.
Strong Regulatory Outcomes
Xcel Energy reached constructive settlements on wildfire mitigation and system resiliency plans in Colorado and Texas, with anticipated commission decisions by Q3 2025.
Positive Sales Growth
Weather and leap year adjusted electric sales increased by 2% in Q1 2025, with expectations of a 3% increase in full-year weather-adjusted electric sales.
Data Center Expansion
Xcel Energy continues to expand its data center footprint with significant interest across multiple states, including Minnesota, Colorado, and Wisconsin, and robust pipeline management.
Negative Updates
Earnings Decline
Earnings decreased to $0.84 per share in Q1 2025 from $0.88 per share in the same quarter of 2024, impacted by higher O&M expenses, depreciation, and interest.
Wildfire Liability Increase
The estimated liability related to Smokehouse Creek increased to $290 million, although it remains under the $500 million insurance coverage.
Higher Operating Expenses
O&M expenses increased by $81 million to $686 million in Q1 2025, driven by nuclear outage amortization, insurance premiums, and benefit costs.
Company Guidance
During Xcel Energy's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported earnings of $0.84 per share and confirmed its ability to meet its earnings guidance for the 21st consecutive year, projecting annual earnings per share between $3.75 and $3.85. The call highlighted a $2.3 billion investment in energy infrastructure, aiming to deliver between 15,000 and 29,000 megawatts of new generation by 2031. Xcel Energy emphasized ongoing tariff mitigation efforts, with an estimated 2% to 3% exposure on its $45 billion capital plan for 2025-2029. The company reaffirmed its commitment to clean energy, reporting that since 2018, customers have saved over $5 billion in avoided fuel costs and production tax credits. Additionally, settlements on wildfire mitigation plans in Colorado and Texas were discussed, involving $1.9 billion and $500 million, respectively. Despite a slight dip in earnings compared to the previous year, Xcel Energy remains focused on growth and regulatory engagement to support its long-term strategic objectives.

Xcel Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Xcel Energy exhibits stable financial performance with strong operational efficiency reflected in its margins. Despite recent revenue declines, profitability remains solid. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage, and cash flow from operations is robust, although capital expenditures have led to negative free cash flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Xcel Energy demonstrates stable profitability with a consistent gross profit margin and net profit margin over the years. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 50.19% and a net profit margin of 14.08%. Revenue growth is slightly negative in recent periods, with a decline of 2.17% from 2022 to 2023 and a further decline of 5.60% from 2023 to 2024. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 17.49% and 40.77% in the TTM, indicating efficient operational performance.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderately leveraged position with a TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, which is typical for the regulated electric industry. The return on equity (ROE) is healthy at 9.75%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 27.22%, indicating a solid capital structure despite the significant debt levels.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Xcel Energy's cash flow shows challenges with negative free cash flow in the TTM at -$317 million, primarily due to high capital expenditures. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.39, demonstrating robust cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the impact of capital investment on cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
13.71B13.44B14.21B15.31B13.43B11.53B
Gross Profit
4.66B6.15B5.93B5.86B5.26B4.96B
EBIT
2.40B2.39B2.48B2.43B2.20B2.12B
EBITDA
5.59B5.59B5.20B5.01B4.46B4.19B
Net Income Common Stockholders
1.93B1.94B1.77B1.74B1.60B1.47B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.12B179.00M129.00M111.00M166.00M129.00M
Total Assets
72.75B70.03B64.08B61.19B57.85B53.96B
Total Debt
32.33B30.21B27.51B26.03B24.74B22.21B
Net Debt
31.20B30.03B27.39B25.92B24.57B22.08B
Total Liabilities
52.95B50.51B46.46B44.51B42.24B39.38B
Stockholders Equity
19.80B19.52B17.62B16.68B15.61B14.57B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-317.00M-2.72B-527.00M-706.00M-2.06B-2.52B
Operating Cash Flow
4.62B4.64B5.33B3.93B2.19B2.85B
Investing Cash Flow
-7.86B-7.43B-5.93B-4.65B-4.29B-4.74B
Financing Cash Flow
3.87B2.84B617.00M666.00M2.13B1.77B

Xcel Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price66.64
Price Trends
50DMA
69.01
Negative
100DMA
68.50
Negative
200DMA
66.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.75
Positive
RSI
41.34
Neutral
STOCH
22.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.05, below the 50-day MA of 69.01, and above the 200-day MA of 66.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XEL.

Xcel Energy Risk Analysis

Xcel Energy disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Xcel Energy reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Xcel Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
WEWEC
77
Outperform
$33.25B20.3412.96%3.43%4.42%11.98%
EXEXC
74
Outperform
$43.01B15.8010.10%3.75%6.71%16.09%
PEPEG
69
Neutral
$40.97B22.4411.40%3.07%11.24%1.15%
XEXEL
68
Neutral
$38.44B19.6510.26%3.42%-0.44%2.14%
67
Neutral
$16.04B16.834.58%3.61%4.77%6.10%
PCPCG
66
Neutral
$30.48B12.768.55%0.72%1.91%-4.40%
EDED
64
Neutral
$36.38B18.648.33%3.37%8.52%3.91%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
XEL
Xcel Energy
66.64
14.44
27.66%
ED
Consolidated Edison
100.97
12.77
14.48%
EXC
Exelon
42.60
8.60
25.29%
PCG
PG&E
13.87
-3.77
-21.37%
PEG
Public Service Enterprise
82.10
9.58
13.21%
WEC
WEC Energy Group
104.19
27.59
36.02%

Xcel Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Xcel Energy Appoints New Chief Legal Officer
Neutral
Jun 16, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Xcel Energy announced that Rob Berntsen, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, would be leaving the company to pursue another opportunity. Ryan Long, who has been with Xcel Energy since 2015 and served in various legal roles, was promoted to fill Berntsen’s position effective June 16, 2025. Long will also continue his role as President of Northern States Power Company while a search for his successor is conducted.

The most recent analyst rating on (XEL) stock is a Hold with a $66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xcel Energy stock, see the XEL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Xcel Energy Shareholders Approve Board and Compensation Plans
Positive
May 23, 2025

Xcel Energy held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 21, 2025, where all 11 directors nominated by the Board were elected. Shareholders also approved the company’s executive compensation plan and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions reflect shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (XEL) stock is a Hold with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Xcel Energy stock, see the XEL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Xcel Energy Enhances Financial Flexibility with New Credit Agreements
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Xcel Energy Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into amended and restated credit agreements with several financial institutions, enhancing their financial flexibility with unsecured credit facilities totaling several billion dollars. These agreements, maturing in December 2029, allow for increased borrowing under certain conditions and are intended for general corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.