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Exelon
(NASDAQ:EXC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(3.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
EXC scores as a mid-range, steadier utility: the biggest positives are consistent profitability with revenue growth and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and solid financing execution. The main constraint on the score is financial quality driven by persistently negative free cash flow and elevated leverage, while technicals are mildly weak (trading below key short- and mid-term moving averages). Valuation and dividend yield provide some support but are not strong enough to offset the cash-flow/leverage risks.
Positive Factors
Stable Revenue and Profitability
Exelon’s regulated utility model drives steady top-line growth and consistent operating margins, providing durable cash flow predictability. Regulated rate recovery and decoupling reduce demand sensitivity, supporting multi-year earnings stability despite commodity and weather variability.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow
Ongoing negative FCF reflects heavy capital spending and working-capital pressures, forcing reliance on external financing. This structural cash shortfall raises sensitivity to higher interest costs and market access, constraining balance-sheet flexibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable Revenue and Profitability
Exelon’s regulated utility model drives steady top-line growth and consistent operating margins, providing durable cash flow predictability. Regulated rate recovery and decoupling reduce demand sensitivity, supporting multi-year earnings stability despite commodity and weather variability.
Read all positive factors
Exelon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Natural Gas Customers
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Indicates the number of customers using natural gas services, reflecting market penetration and potential for revenue growth in this segment.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExelon (EXC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.64B
Dividend Yield3.58%
Average Volume (3M)8.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7
Beta (1Y)-0.11
Revenue Growth6.56%
EPS Growth3.72%
CountryUS
Employees20,571
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Electric
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.74
Shares Outstanding1,023,208,100
10 Day Avg. Volume8,097,160
30 Day Avg. Volume8,856,922
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.82
P/FCF Ratio-19.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.00Price Target Upside3.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.29B
Exelon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exelon Corporation, a utility holding company established in 1999 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, operates across the United States and Canada. The company primarily focuses on the generation, delivery, and marketing of energy. It maintain...
How the Company Makes Money
Exelon primarily makes money through regulated utility revenue earned by delivering electricity (and in some territories, natural gas) to end-use customers. The core of its revenue model is cost-of-service ratemaking: utility rates are set or appr...
Exelon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive execution items (Q2 earnings growth, reaffirmed guidance, strong reliability performance, financing progress, and large-scale storage development) alongside material industry-level challenges (PJM capacity shortfalls, record demand and price spikes, and storm-related operational stress). Management emphasized pragmatic, multi-pronged solutions (transmission, utility-owned generation, storage, VPPs, and regulatory engagement) and reconfirmed capital and earnings targets while acknowledging affordability pressures and pipeline refinement. Overall, company fundamentals and execution are solid, but systemic supply adequacy and market signals are significant risks that temper the near-term outlook.Positive Updates
Quarterly Adjusted Operating Earnings Increase
Adjusted operating earnings of $0.43 per share in Q2 2026 versus $0.39 in Q2 2025, a $0.04 per share increase (≈10% year-over-year). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share.
Negative Updates
PJM Resource Adequacy Shortfall and Capacity Market Stress
PJM capacity auction cleared at the FERC-approved price cap for the third consecutive auction and the auction fell short of PJM’s reliability requirement by ~6.8 GW (vs prior 6.5 GW). Only ~525 MW of new generation/upgrades cleared, indicating insufficient market-driven supply additions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Adjusted Operating Earnings Increase
Adjusted operating earnings of $0.43 per share in Q2 2026 versus $0.39 in Q2 2025, a $0.04 per share increase (≈10% year-over-year). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Exelon reported Q2 adjusted operating earnings of $0.43 per share and reaffirmed full‑year adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81–$2.91 per share (with Q3 expected to be ~27% of the midpoint and the company targeting the midpoint or better), while forecasting annualized earnings growth near the top end of 5%–7% (2025–2029) supported by 7.9% annualized rate‑base growth and a 2026 consolidated operating ROE target of 9%–10%. Capital and financing guidance includes approximately $10 billion of 2026 capital deployment, $41 billion of capital through 2029, roughly 86% of 2026 debt financing completed, ~37% of planned equity needs through 2029 priced (all 2026, half 2027), pre‑issuance hedges, and expected average credit metrics of ~14% through 2029. Q2 drivers were +$0.04 from distribution/transmission rates, +$0.04 from last year’s Customer Relief Fund, +$0.01 favorable PECO weather, offset by −$0.02 BGE credit losses and −$0.02 interest; the company also highlighted a 500‑MW (~$1B) New Jersey battery project that is projected to deliver >$700 million net customer benefits with no bill impact until at least 2035.Exelon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.33B | 24.26B | 23.03B | 21.73B | 19.08B | 17.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.21B | 6.77B | 9.40B | 8.93B | 8.03B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | 9.06B | 9.06B | 8.18B | 7.94B | 7.17B | 9.38B |
| Net Income | 2.78B | 2.77B | 2.46B | 2.33B | 2.17B | 1.71B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 120.50B | 116.57B | 107.78B | 101.86B | 95.35B | 133.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.25B | 1.15B | 357.00M | 445.00M | 407.00M | 672.00M |
| Total Debt | 52.28B | 50.55B | 46.65B | 44.01B | 40.05B | 34.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.81B | 87.77B | 80.86B | 76.10B | 70.61B | 98.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.70B | 28.80B | 26.92B | 25.75B | 24.74B | 34.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.92B | -2.27B | -1.53B | -2.71B | -2.28B | -4.97B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.21B | 6.25B | 5.57B | 4.70B | 4.87B | 3.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.12B | -8.53B | -7.04B | -7.38B | -6.99B | -3.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.09B | 2.53B | 1.31B | 2.68B | 1.59B | 758.00M |
Exelon Technical Analysis
Negative
47.53
Price Trends
46.16
Negative
46.48
Negative
45.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
57.26
Neutral
73.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EXC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 47.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.71, above the 50-day MA of 46.16, and above the 200-day MA of 45.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EXC.
Exelon Risk Analysis
Exelon disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Exelon reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Exelon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $183.42B | 19.45 | 16.82% | 2.65% | 11.83% | 55.48% | |
68 Neutral | $106.35B | 22.67 | 12.38% | 3.06% | 6.40% | 6.90% | |
66 Neutral | $69.53B | 21.97 | 10.01% | 2.79% | 8.68% | -14.88% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $98.44B | 19.21 | 9.85% | 3.26% | 7.21% | 8.97% | |
63 Neutral | $46.64B | 16.72 | 9.61% | 3.45% | 6.56% | 3.72% | |
60 Neutral | $61.33B | 27.45 | 10.51% | 3.76% | 21.47% | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
EXC
Exelon
45.82
2.71
6.28%
AEP
American Electric Power
127.85
17.76
16.13%
D
Dominion Energy
69.17
11.31
19.56%
DUK
Duke Energy
125.43
6.67
5.62%
NEE
NextEra Energy
86.92
18.50
27.04%
SO
Southern Co
94.54
2.56
2.78%
Exelon Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon posts solid Q2 earnings, reaffirms 2026 guidance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Exelon reported second-quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $0.39 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.43 per share, modestly above the prior year and in line with expectations, while reaffirming full-year adjusted earnings...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Exelon Affirms 2026 Outlook Amid Q1 Earnings Update
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Exelon reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP net income of $0.90 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $0.91 per share, slightly below the prior-year period, while affirming its full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Exelon Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
At Exelon Corporation’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders held on April 28, 2026, investors elected all nominated directors, with each receiving strong majority support and broker non-votes recorded where applicable. The results reinforce conti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.