Want to see VVV full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Valvoline
(NYSE:VVV)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-5.80% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by high leverage and inconsistent earnings/cash-flow history, plus weak technical momentum (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a strong recent quarter and raised guidance from the earnings call, but the elevated P/E and near-term margin pressure from higher lubricant costs limit upside.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and Same-Store Growth
Broad-based sales growth, including an 8% same-store increase, indicates durable customer demand and effective pricing or service execution across the network. This supports continued revenue expansion without relying solely on acquisitions or new-store additions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Financial Leverage
The thin equity base and high debt burden reduce financial resilience if profitability weakens or operating conditions deteriorate. Elevated leverage also commits future cash flow to interest and principal obligations, limiting flexibility for acquisitions, expansion, or shareholder-oriented capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue and Same-Store Growth
Broad-based sales growth, including an 8% same-store increase, indicates durable customer demand and effective pricing or service execution across the network. This supports continued revenue expansion without relying solely on acquisitions or new-store additions over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Valvoline Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Valvoline (VVV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.85B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)2.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.8
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth16.08%
EPS Growth-63.28%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Dealerships
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding127,586,420
10 Day Avg. Volume3,119,483
30 Day Avg. Volume2,765,942
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio17.74
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.69
P/FCF Ratio120.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.17Price Target Upside31.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.32B
Valvoline Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valvoline Inc. is a prominent provider, involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and commercialization of a comprehensive range of engine and vehicle care products and related services. Its operations are structured into two distinct divisions...
How the Company Makes Money
Valvoline makes money primarily by selling automotive preventive maintenance services through a network of company-owned and franchised quick-lube service centers. The core revenue stream is service revenue generated at company-operated stores—mos...
Valvoline Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with notable top-line growth (system-wide sales +19%, company net sales +24%), meaningful EBITDA and EPS expansion, improved cash flow and balance sheet metrics, continued network growth and positive early results from the Breeze integration. The primary drag is an industry-wide Group III base oil supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz) that has driven finished lubricant costs materially higher (≈60% vs March; ~$5–$7 per oil change) and creates near-term margin pressure (Q4 product-cost-driven compression). Management has taken pricing and operational actions, raised same-store sales guidance, and expects elevated costs to persist for several months after supply normalizes, but the company characterizes itself as advantaged on supply and remains confident in demand and long-term margins.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth and Record Quarterly System Sales
System-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter; system-wide same-store sales grew 8%.
Negative Updates
Severe Base Oil Supply Disruption
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global oil supply chains and constrained Group III base oil (key for full synthetic), an industry-wide issue expected to persist into the medium term.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth and Record Quarterly System Sales
System-wide store sales increased 19%, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a quarter; system-wide same-store sales grew 8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valvoline raised full‑year system‑wide same‑store sales guidance to 7.5%–8% (and nudged the full‑year sales midpoint from $2.05B to $2.10B, +$25M) and narrowed adjusted EBITDA and EPS ranges to $550–$560M and $1.70–$1.75, respectively, noting it had planned ~100 bps of full‑year EBITDA margin compression but now expects roughly half (~50 bps); management also said Q4 pricing actions aim to protect gross profit dollars though the September quarter midpoint would imply 300–400 bps of sequential margin compression driven by product cost. Q3 showed net sales of $545M (+24% YoY), system‑wide store sales +19% (crossing >$1B for the quarter), system‑wide same‑store sales +8%, EBITDA $162M (+25%, margin 29.8%, +30 bps), EPS $0.57 (+21%), gross margin 40% (-50 bps), SG&A 17% (-90 bps), YTD operating cash flow $285M (up $105M), free cash flow $112M (up ~$93M), net leverage 2.8x (down ~10%), and an expected annual interest savings of ~$1.8M from a Term Loan B repricing. Management cautioned finished lubricant costs could be ~60% above March (roughly $5–$7 per oil change) and that supply/cost normalization may take ~4–6 months after the Strait of Hormuz reopens.Valvoline Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.96B | 1.71B | 1.62B | 1.44B | 1.24B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 751.90M | 658.50M | 618.80M | 544.50M | 476.40M | 432.30M |
| EBITDA | 461.10M | 510.70M | 472.40M | 368.80M | 284.80M | 430.40M |
| Net Income | 101.50M | 210.70M | 211.50M | 1.42B | 424.30M | 420.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.48B | 2.67B | 2.44B | 2.89B | 3.42B | 3.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 84.20M | 51.60M | 68.30M | 756.60M | 23.40M | 122.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 1.67B | 1.63B | 2.07B | 2.14B | 2.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.06B | 2.33B | 2.25B | 2.69B | 3.11B | 3.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 416.70M | 338.50M | 185.60M | 203.20M | 306.60M | 134.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.30M | 38.00M | 40.70M | -221.30M | 152.20M | 300.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 406.50M | 297.20M | 265.10M | -40.80M | 284.20M | 403.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -890.50M | -201.10M | 136.80M | 2.04B | -207.60M | -399.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 500.20M | -112.90M | -746.30M | -1.67B | -218.90M | -535.50M |
Valvoline Technical Analysis
Negative
32.91
Price Trends
31.63
Negative
34.59
Negative
34.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
48.11
Neutral
56.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VVV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.17, above the 50-day MA of 31.63, and below the 200-day MA of 34.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VVV.
Valvoline Risk Analysis
Valvoline disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valvoline reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Valvoline Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $6.30B | 9.45 | 10.91% | 0.83% | 1.97% | -10.60% | |
66 Neutral | $12.78B | 14.34 | 16.43% | 2.90% | 4.13% | -5.43% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.94B | 11.11 | 22.09% | 1.54% | -10.59% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $5.14B | 7.06 | 33.18% | ― | -0.06% | 35.87% | |
54 Neutral | $3.85B | 40.76 | 28.67% | 1.53% | 16.08% | -63.28% | |
54 Neutral | $2.74B | 9.54 | 9.96% | 0.94% | 0.81% | -33.60% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
VVV
Valvoline
30.16
-5.37
-15.11%
AN
AutoNation
155.44
-65.55
-29.66%
GPI
Group 1 Automotive
229.64
-207.35
-47.45%
LAD
Driveway Vehicle Solutions
286.45
-22.80
-7.37%
PAG
Penske Automotive Group
194.67
26.31
15.63%
DRVN
Driven Brands Holdings
11.78
-4.51
-27.69%
Valvoline Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Valvoline Upsizes Senior Notes to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Valvoline Inc. announced it had upsized a previously launched senior notes offering to $600 million aggregate principal amount of 6.125% senior notes due 2034. The notes, which are unsubordinated unsecured obligations guarantee...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valvoline Raises Outlook Following Strong Third-Quarter Results
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Valvoline reported third-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, highlighted by 24% net revenue growth to about $545 million and a 19% rise in system-wide store sales to $1.05 billion. The company added 47 net stores...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Valvoline Adds Experienced Leaders to Board of Directors
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Valvoline Inc. elected finance executive Katherine Fogertey, former CFO of Shake Shack, and Scott Mezvinsky, CEO of the KFC division of Yum! Brands, to its Board of Directors, effective that same date. Fogertey brings extensive p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.