United Parcel (UPS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $79.04B
• Dividend Yield: 6.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 8.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: -1.27%
• EPS Growth: -2.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 490,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 1.74
• Shares Outstanding: 736,042,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,800,156
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,146,770
• PEG Ratio: -1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.44
• 1Y Price Target: $102.70
• Price Target Upside: 9.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 20
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $107.00 ▲(13.72% Upside)

UPS's overall stock score reflects a balance of strong valuation and cash flow generation against challenges in revenue growth and profitability margins. The technical indicators suggest caution due to overbought conditions, while the earnings call highlights strategic initiatives to address operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation enhances UPS's ability to invest in growth opportunities, manage debt, and return capital to shareholders, supporting long-term financial health.

International Volume Growth

Sustained international volume growth indicates robust demand in global markets, strengthening UPS's competitive position and diversifying revenue streams.

Health Care and SMB Growth

Growth in healthcare logistics and SMBs highlights UPS's strategic focus on high-margin sectors, enhancing long-term profitability and market differentiation.

Negative Factors

Decline in U.S. Domestic Volume

The decline in U.S. domestic volume reflects challenges in maintaining market share and adapting to shifts in e-commerce, potentially impacting revenue growth.

Rising Debt Levels

Increased leverage can strain financial flexibility, posing risks to UPS's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns effectively.

International Margin Pressure

Margin pressure in international operations suggests challenges in cost management and pricing power, potentially affecting profitability in key markets.

United Parcel Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global logistics and package delivery company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Founded in 1907, UPS operates in the transportation and logistics sector, providing a wide array of services including package delivery, freight transportation, and supply chain management. The company serves both businesses and consumers, offering solutions that encompass ground and air shipping, logistics, and e-commerce services across various industries worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

UPS generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around package delivery services. The company's main revenue sources include its domestic package services, which account for a significant portion of its income through the delivery of parcels within the United States. International package services also contribute to earnings, as UPS facilitates global shipping for businesses and consumers. Additionally, the company earns revenue from freight services, which includes both air and ocean freight, catering to larger shipments and logistics needs. UPS has established significant partnerships with various companies, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base. Furthermore, UPS capitalizes on the growing e-commerce market, providing tailored solutions for online retailers, which has become increasingly lucrative as consumer behavior shifts toward digital shopping.

United Parcel Financial Statement Overview

Summary

UPS is facing challenges with declining revenue growth and profitability margins. However, strong cash flow generation and a solid return on equity provide a buffer against increased leverage risks. Continued focus on operational efficiency and revenue growth is crucial.

Income Statement

UPS has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -1.08% in the TTM period, indicating challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from previous years, currently at 5.88% in TTM, which is a concern for profitability. However, the net profit margin remains stable at 6.15%, suggesting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.61 in TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity is strong at 34.41%, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets.

Cash Flow

UPS has demonstrated a strong free cash flow growth rate of 40.87% in TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 0.58, showing a healthy conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, reflecting solid cash flow management despite lower net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	67.88B	90.89B	90.75B	100.03B	97.20B	84.43B
Gross Profit	12.52B	17.06B	17.71B	20.08B	17.43B	21.78B
EBITDA	8.93B	11.91B	12.71B	18.71B	20.23B	5.23B
Net Income	4.32B	5.78B	6.71B	11.55B	12.89B	1.34B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.39B	70.07B	70.86B	71.12B	69.41B	62.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.76B	6.32B	6.04B	7.59B	10.59B	6.32B
Total Debt	29.21B	25.65B	26.73B	23.52B	25.53B	27.75B
Total Liabilities	55.54B	53.33B	53.54B	51.32B	55.14B	61.74B
Stockholders Equity	15.82B	16.72B	17.31B	19.79B	14.25B	657.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.95B	6.21B	5.08B	9.34B	10.81B	5.05B
Operating Cash Flow	6.14B	10.12B	10.24B	14.10B	15.01B	10.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.44B	-217.00M	-7.13B	-7.47B	-3.82B	-5.28B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.48B	-6.85B	-5.53B	-11.19B	-6.82B	-4.52B

United Parcel Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 94.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UPS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 94.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.43, above the 50-day MA of 86.41, and below the 200-day MA of 97.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UPS.

United Parcel Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXPD	74 Outperform	$18.42B	22.15	39.01%	1.11%	23.70%	31.33%
ZTO	74 Outperform	$14.68B	12.80	13.98%	3.40%	14.40%	2.41%
XPO	73 Outperform	$16.51B	50.55	19.26%	―	-0.30%	-11.02%
FDX	73 Outperform	$59.43B	14.72	14.98%	2.25%	1.14%	4.99%
UPS	72 Outperform	$79.04B	14.41	33.67%	6.96%	-1.27%	-2.25%
CHRW	71 Outperform	$18.06B	30.99	34.32%	1.63%	-7.08%	71.39%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

United Parcel Corporate Events

UPS Reports Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Strategic Shift

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics, providing integrated solutions for customers across more than 200 countries, with a focus on innovation and sustainability.

UPS Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment Amid Growth and Challenges

The recent earnings call for United Parcel Service (UPS) revealed a mixed sentiment, with the company showcasing robust revenue growth and strategic progress in its health care and international segments. However, challenges such as declining domestic volume, international margin pressure, and the effects of global trade policy changes posed significant hurdles.

United Parcel Cancels Estafeta Acquisition Plans

On September 17, 2025, United Parcel Service, Inc. decided to terminate its acquisition plans for Estafeta due to unmet closing conditions. This decision could impact the company’s strategic positioning and market expansion plans, potentially affecting stakeholders’ expectations regarding future growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (UPS) stock is a Buy with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on United Parcel stock, see the UPS Stock Forecast page.

UPS Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Earnings Amid Strategic Initiatives

United Parcel Service (UPS) is a global leader in logistics, offering a wide range of integrated solutions for customers in over 200 countries, with a focus on innovation and environmental sustainability.

UPS Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments Amid Challenges

United Parcel Service (UPS) recently held its second-quarter earnings call for 2025, which presented a mixed sentiment. While there were positive developments in strategic initiatives and growth areas such as healthcare logistics and international trade lane adjustments, the call was overshadowed by challenges like declining U.S. consumer sentiment, operational issues with the Ground Saver product, and uncertainties around trade policies and Amazon volume glide down efforts. The absence of forward-looking guidance further highlighted the uncertainties and pressures faced by the company.