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Union Pacific
(NYSE:UNP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$335.00
â–²(8.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
UNP’s score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high profitability and solid cash generation) and a constructive earnings outlook with positive operational momentum. Technicals also support the trend, though overbought indicators raise near-term risk. Valuation is the main constraint, with a premium P/E and a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
Consistently high profitability and positive free cash flow demonstrate a durable cash-generating business model. This supports network reinvestment, dividends, and strategic flexibility while providing financial capacity to manage cyclical freight demand and fund long-term operating improvements.
Negative Factors
Fuel-cost exposure
Higher diesel prices can pressure operating margins and cash flow when fuel-cost increases are not fully offset by surcharges or pricing. Management expects a greater near-term impact, showing that fuel remains a material earnings sensitivity despite efficiency initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
Consistently high profitability and positive free cash flow demonstrate a durable cash-generating business model. This supports network reinvestment, dividends, and strategic flexibility while providing financial capacity to manage cyclical freight demand and fund long-term operating improvements.
Read all positive factors
Union Pacific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Locomotive Productivity
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Measures the efficiency of locomotive usage, indicating how well the company utilizes its fleet to transport goods. Higher productivity suggests better asset utilization and cost management, impacting profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyUnion Pacific (UNP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$176.97B
Dividend Yield1.87%
Average Volume (3M)2.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.2
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth7.40%
EPS Growth8.86%
CountryUS
Employees28,716
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.85
Shares Outstanding594,250,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,776,497
30 Day Avg. Volume2,592,169
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.35
Price to Book (P/B)7.42
Price to Sales (P/S)5.59
P/FCF Ratio24.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$338.00Price Target Upside9.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)13.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.36B
Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Union Pacific Corporation, a prominent American railway enterprise, conducts its primary operations through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company. The company provides extensive freight transportation services for a wide array of commodit...
How the Company Makes Money
Union Pacific makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight by rail, with revenue generally tied to shipment volume, distance moved, commodity type, service level, and prevailing contract or tariff pricing. Its core revenue stre...
Union Pacific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, supported by record financial results, 6% volume growth, 15% revenue growth, improved safety and operating metrics, record productivity, strong intermodal and industrial demand, and continued confidence in the Norfolk Southern merger. The main challenges were higher fuel costs, coal and wheat weakness, selected market softness, seasonal fourth-quarter pressure, and opposition to the merger, but management reaffirmed its earnings outlook and operating improvement plans.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Financial Results
Union Pacific reported record third-quarter financial results, including net income of $2.1 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $3.53, and reported earnings per share of $3.49. Adjusted EPS grew 15% year over year.
Negative Updates
Higher Fuel Prices Pressured Results
Higher fuel prices were a significant cost driver. Fuel expense increased 69% on a 64% increase in average fuel price and 4% higher gross ton-miles. The average price per gallon increased from $2.56 to $4.21 and added 140 basis points to the operating ratio.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Financial Results
Union Pacific reported record third-quarter financial results, including net income of $2.1 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $3.53, and reported earnings per share of $3.49. Adjusted EPS grew 15% year over year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Union Pacific affirmed its outlook of reported EPS growth in the high single-digit range versus 2025’s reported EPS of $11.98, which included $0.30 from a fourth quarter land sale, and expects to continue improving its core operating ratio in 2026 and leading the industry; 2026 capital spend is updated to $3.5 billion, while fourth-quarter fuel prices are currently expected to average around $4.85 per gallon versus $4.21 in the third quarter, which had about 140 basis point drag. International Intermodal volume is expected to grow double digits in the fourth quarter, Domestic Intermodal is on track to deliver its third consecutive record volume year, and automotive business wins are expected to continue to offset market weakness. The company expects continued strong growth in the fourth quarter but, on an absolute basis, probably a little bit of a seasonal step back in operating ratio, while core operating ratio improvement is expected to continue; it also expects a better environment for stronger pricing toward the end of the year and the first several months of 2027.Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.36B | 24.51B | 24.25B | 24.12B | 24.88B | 21.80B |
| Gross Profit | 11.61B | 14.55B | 11.04B | 10.53B | 11.21B | 10.51B |
| EBITDA | 13.73B | 12.94B | 12.46B | 11.89B | 12.59B | 11.84B |
| Net Income | 7.62B | 7.14B | 6.75B | 6.38B | 7.00B | 6.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 72.61B | 69.70B | 67.72B | 67.13B | 65.45B | 63.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.09B | 1.52B | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.02B | 1.01B |
| Total Debt | 31.34B | 31.81B | 32.46B | 34.18B | 34.96B | 31.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.59B | 51.23B | 50.83B | 52.34B | 53.29B | 49.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.02B | 18.47B | 16.89B | 14.79B | 12.16B | 14.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.69B | 5.50B | 5.89B | 4.77B | 5.74B | 6.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.53B | 9.29B | 9.35B | 8.38B | 9.36B | 9.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.43B | -3.76B | -3.33B | -3.67B | -3.47B | -2.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.71B | -5.28B | -6.07B | -4.63B | -5.89B | -7.16B |
Union Pacific Technical Analysis
Positive
309.59
Price Trends
287.24
Positive
285.01
Positive
267.86
Positive
Market Momentum
4.13
Negative
64.70
Neutral
87.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 309.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 285.59, above the 50-day MA of 287.24, and above the 200-day MA of 267.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UNP.
Union Pacific Risk Analysis
Union Pacific disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Union Pacific reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Union Pacific Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $176.97B | 23.18 | 37.82% | 1.87% | 7.40% | 8.86% | |
75 Outperform | $35.94B | 31.17 | 25.92% | 0.66% | 3.80% | 11.90% | |
74 Outperform | $95.82B | 26.93 | 25.95% | 1.06% | 5.80% | 25.25% | |
71 Outperform | $75.94B | 28.32 | 16.69% | 1.60% | 5.99% | -9.02% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $14.73B | 22.62 | 39.59% | 1.97% | 10.38% | 12.97% | |
61 Neutral | $20.81B | 31.36 | 18.71% | 0.80% | 10.59% | 23.25% |
* Industrials Sector Average
UNP
Union Pacific
297.80
83.49
38.96%
CHRW
CH Robinson
127.60
-24.95
-16.36%
CSX
CSX
51.98
16.79
47.73%
JBHT
JB Hunt
223.26
57.97
35.07%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
338.09
61.35
22.17%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
173.32
36.92
27.07%
Union Pacific Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Union Pacific Announces Upcoming CFO Leadership Transition
Neutral
Oct 16, 2026
Union Pacific Railroad announced on October 16, 2026 that Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Jennifer L. Hamann will retire in early 2027 after a 35-year career with the company. Hamann, who joined Union Pacific in 1992 and becam...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.