CSX AI Stock Analysis
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CSX (CSX) AI Stock Analysis
CSX
(NASDAQ:CSX)
CSX’s score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (strong margins) but tempered by weaker recent free-cash-flow trends and meaningful leverage. The strongly positive earnings call and raised revenue outlook materially support the score, while technicals are constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages. Valuation is a modest drag given the ~25 P/E and relatively low dividend yield.
CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by SegmentHighlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
CSX’s mix is shifting toward higher-growth, higher-margin businesses: intermodal is clearly the fastest-growing line and, together with a re-accelerating Merchandise franchise, is driving the record revenue that prompted management to raise 2026 guidance. Coal shows a cyclical rebound but remains volatile, while Trucking is a smaller, steady diversification and Other is immaterial. Management’s commentary—strong pricing/fuel surcharges in intermodal, productivity gains and cost discipline—supports sustainable top‑line momentum, but fuel volatility and H2 cost pressures (overhauls, fewer property gains) temper margin upside.
The FlyCSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $95.67B
- Dividend Yield
- 1.06%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 10.64M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 26.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.62
- Revenue Growth
- 5.80%
- EPS Growth
- 25.25%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 21,900
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Railroads
CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trai...
How the Company Makes Money
CSX makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight by rail across its network. Revenue is generated from freight service contracts and tariffs, typically priced based on factors such as shipment lane (origin-destination), distance,...
CSX Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive. CSX reported double-digit revenue growth, 30% EPS growth, substantial margin expansion, record fuel efficiency, improved safety, record intermodal volume, and raised revenue guidance. Management also highlighted continued productivity initiatives, capacity investments, and growth opportunities. The main challenges were fertilizer and domestic coal weakness, temporary Atlanta service tightness, seasonal fourth-quarter cost pressure, fuel volatility, driver shortages, and a smaller expected productivity contribution in 2027, but these issues were presented alongside active mitigation efforts and an overall confident outlook.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, CSX now expects revenue growth in the high single digits, compared to the mid to high single digit range provided previously; the rest of its guidance is unchanged, including full year operating margin expansion of more than 350 basis points, capital expenditures below $2.4 billion, and free cash flow growth of more than 80%. For the fourth quarter, CSX expects year over year margin improvement above 300-- 350 points, normal seasonal increases in PS&O and some step up sequentially in the fourth quarter expense line, while coal RPU is expected to increase another small sequential amount; service started strong in October, with velocity averaging more than 19 mph this month and dwell approaching 10 hours. The company has a little over 100 initiatives contributing to its 2027 productivity target, which is expected to be a significant number next year, though 2027 will not be as big as 2026, and other revenue is expected to be around the mid-$130s per quarter, with the fourth quarter probably a little better than that.
CSX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability remains strong (TTM net margin ~24%, EBITDA margin ~48%), but performance consistency has softened versus 2021–2022. Revenue growth has been uneven (TTM up ~3% but slightly negative annual growth across 2023–2025), free cash flow has fallen sharply (TTM ~-36% growth) with weaker cash conversion (~57% of net income), and leverage is meaningful (debt-to-equity ~1.34), limiting flexibility despite strong ROE (~26%).
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
67PositiveCash Flow
63Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.94B | 14.09B | 14.54B | 14.66B | 14.85B | 12.52B |
| Gross Profit | 5.44B | 4.68B | 5.51B | 5.60B | 5.72B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 7.17B | 6.27B | 7.04B | 7.25B | 7.59B | 7.09B |
| Net Income | 3.58B | 2.89B | 3.47B | 3.67B | 4.11B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.15B | 43.68B | 42.76B | 42.21B | 41.91B | 40.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 675.00M | 1.00B | 1.44B | 2.09B | 2.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.30B | 19.35B | 18.99B | 19.02B | 18.54B | 16.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.77B | 30.52B | 30.26B | 30.23B | 29.29B | 27.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.38B | 13.16B | 12.50B | 11.98B | 12.63B | 13.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.21B | 1.71B | 2.72B | 3.26B | 3.49B | 3.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.60B | 4.61B | 5.25B | 5.51B | 5.62B | 5.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.61B | -2.85B | -2.60B | -2.23B | -2.13B | -1.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.38B | -2.02B | -3.06B | -3.87B | -3.77B | -4.11B |
CSX Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.90 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.59, above the 50-day MA of 48.85, and above the 200-day MA of 46.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.
CSX Risk Analysis
CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskCSX Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
NSC78Outperform
UNP75Outperform
ODFL74Outperform- CSX74Outperform
CHRW62Neutral
JBHT61Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSC | 78Outperform | $73.66B | 27.69 | 16.69% | 1.63% | 5.99% | -9.02% |
| UNP | 75Outperform | $178.64B | 23.51 | 37.82% | 1.84% | 7.40% | 8.86% |
| ODFL | 74Outperform | $34.62B | 30.61 | 25.92% | 0.67% | 3.80% | 11.90% |
| CSX | 74Outperform | $94.16B | 26.89 | 25.95% | 1.06% | 5.80% | 25.25% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| CHRW | 62Neutral | $14.96B | 23.72 | 39.59% | 1.88% | 10.38% | 12.97% |
| JBHT | 61Neutral | $21.09B | 31.97 | 18.71% | 0.79% | 10.59% | 23.25% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 51.90 | 17.46 | 50.71% | |
| CHRW | Ch Robinson Worldwide | 133.76 | -15.62 | -10.46% | |
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport Services | 227.66 | 62.61 | 37.93% | |
| NSC | Norfolk Southern Corp | 330.59 | 51.78 | 18.57% | |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | 170.50 | 35.89 | 26.66% | |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corporation | 302.11 | 85.20 | 39.28% |
CSX Corporate Events
CSX Announces Retirement of Chief Operating Officer Cory
NeutralOn October 12, 2026, CSX announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Mike Cory retired from the company and stepped down from his COO role effective that day. To support a smooth handover, Cory will continue providing transiti...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2026